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The Milk Road Macro Index reached +0.53 this week, marking the firmest RISK ON reading in weeks and indicating 100% exposure.
Both the economy and the market pillars resolved in the framework's favor simultaneously for the first time since the July payrolls miss introduced a gap between them.
Inflation seems to be relatively under control. July core consumer prices rose just 2.5% year-over-year, and producer prices came in flat on the month. The inflation direction metric holds at +0.00, and the macro buffer is fully intact at +0.50.
On the market side, there are bullish signs across the board.
Momentum at +0.78 reflects a broad advance, copper at record highs above $6.77 per pound, roughly 72% of S&P 500 members trading above their 200-day moving averages, and high-yield spreads at 2.71% showing no credit stress.
On the economy side, ten consecutive months of retail sales growth and weekly jobless claims near historic lows at 209,000 keep the real economy score just positive at +0.04. Which is all the macro buffer needs to stay fully in place.
A second consecutive decline on Sept. 4 pulls the real economy score below zero. Retail sales and 209,000 jobless claims hold it at +0.04.
The world has a new, expensive problem: The cost of borrowing money for decades keeps going up, making it getting harder to dismiss as a temporary market tantrum.
Why it matters: The relentless rise in borrowing costs in recent months makes a long-feared scenario harder to dismiss: that investors demand higher and higher returns in ways that make it prohibitively expensive to finance investments meant to power the next era of economic growth.
Driving the news: From the U.S. to Japan, long-term interest rates are pushing into territory not seen in years or decades at one of the most consequential moments for the global economy.
The big picture: The Middle East conflict has intensified the sell-off, pushing oil prices back above $90 a barrel and reviving inflation fears.
Friction point: The price of money is soaring just as the world's biggest economies require huge sums of money for major transformations.
The bottom line: The world is trying to finance some of its most expensive ambitions in decades just as cheap money is disappearing.
Homebuilders pulled back last month as high borrowing costs and weak demand weighed on construction. Housing starts plunged 12.4%, to a 1.24 million annualized pace, though permits rose 5%, to 1.44 million.
Governments are entering this moment deeply indebted. More revenue will go toward interest payments as old debt gets refinanced at today's higher rates.
Zoom in: Debt held by the public is currently about 101% of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The nonpartisan agency projects that will rise to 120% in 10 years.
The price of bare printed circuit boards is skyrocketing to levels never seen before.
Why it matters: AI-driven demand for chips and the war with Iran are two big factors behind the surge. These circuit boards are the "foundational infrastructure of modern electronics," found in everything from smartphones and cars to medical and military equipment and dishwashers.
By the numbers: The producer price index for the boards rose 45% in July from the same time last year. The U.S. produces only about 4% of the world's supply, but the number is still illustrative of the pricing squeeze being felt globally.
Supply chain impact: A major manufacturer of resin in Saudi Arabia was knocked offline in April after an Iranian attack, and it's unclear if it is operational yet. This one plant makes 70% of the world's high-purity polyphenylene ether resin. Prices for electronics are already moving higher, but experts warn we've only begun to feel these shocks.
Timeline: It takes at least six months, if not a year, for these price increases fairly far upstream in the supply chain to start to make their way to end users. A lot of suppliers have already locked in pricing through contracts.
Computer software and accessories rose 21.2% in July from the previous year, the largest increase on record.
Besides software, the category includes memory flash drives, which have seen their prices double over the past year. This chipflation is feeding into the CPI as AI-driven demand stretches memory chip supplies.
S&P 500 futures are negative premarket, with worries about rising bond yields and the still-closed Strait of Hormuz dominating.
Some analysts point to uncertainty stemming from new leadership at the Federal Reserve for the rise in yields. But it's also a global phenomenon tied to rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and surging demand for capital from both companies and governments.
Roaring revenue growth at AI lab Anthropic couldn't keep stocks in the green yesterday.
A third of Americans in workplace retirement plans reported having more credit card debt than savings, according to a recent Schroders survey. And 36% of people who borrowed from their retirement plan said they did so to pay off card debt.
"As an industry, we can't look at retirement savings in isolation," said Deb Boyden, head of US defined contribution at Schroders. "Credit card debt, rising costs, and emergency expenses are all part of the same equation."
For many, the 401(k) has gone from a nest egg to a rainy-day fund.
Charles Schwab has recently been on the search for a director to lead the firm's long-short separately managed account initiative, someone responsible for building a team focused specifically on long-short SMAs and creating companywide coordination for the business.
The move speaks to a broader push into the strategies, which are gaining traction as wealthy investors look for ways to diversify concentrated stock positions without triggering massive tax bills.
Though still a small portion of its business, long-short strategies are an area that performed exceptionally well in the second quarter for Schwab and helped drive overall company revenue 21% higher year over year.
Schwab is not alone in its push. The strategies are gaining greater attention as some advisors and clients seek new avenues for alpha, others look for diversification that isn't fixed income, and companies like SpaceX, and soon, Anthropic and OpenAI, are delivering mega-IPOs, turning on-paper millionaires into actual millionaires in need of tax-loss harvesting tools.
Despite Schwab's push into the products, it did recently introduce limitations to the strategies. In April, the firm began capping long-short SMAs at 30% of an advisor's total assets held at Schwab, alongside new leverage caps and account minimums. Fidelity made similar moves at the end of last year, indefinitely blocking RIAs from opening and funding new accounts.
Neuberger Berman added long-short tax managed strategies to its Custom Direct Indexing platform in June. WisdomTree launched the WisdomTree Efficient Long/Short US Equity Fund (WTLS), an ETF that combines broad S&P 500 exposure with a long-short equity overlay, in January. Invesco has also been building up its long-short SMA capabilities.
Attorneys general from California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey allege that Meta knowingly and deliberately designed features to get children addicted to its platform, plus gathered data on children under the age of 13 in violation of federal law. The states are seeking as much as $1.4 trillion in damages.
In March, a California state court awarded $6 million in damages to a single plaintiff who successfully argued that Meta as well as Google's YouTube sparked a social media addiction. A New Mexico judge recently ordered the company to pay $942 million in penalties after a jury ruled the company willfully violated the state's consumer protection laws by failing to safeguard young users.
Meta said it plans to appeal the New Mexico ruling, and in its earnings call last month, the company said it spent $2.4 billion on legal proceedings in the second quarter.
Memory chip makers surged Monday behind a wave of good news that rallied investor confidence in the artificial-intelligence boom. Companies that suddenly find themselves crucial to the supply chain, like Sandisk, are proving the biggest winners.
Big Tech spending on AI, set to reach trillions of dollars, has stretched the supply of high-capacity memory chips to levels of exhaustion. Chipmakers are warning that advanced memory chips needed to run top AI models face years-long shortages. Demand has driven up prices and, in the process, made consumer goods like laptops and smartphones that also require memory more expensive.
Risk assets are under pressure as Brent holds above $91 and WTI near $85 after the U.S.-Iran truce expired, Iran signaled a shift to fully offensive posture, and shipping risks rose in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. futures opened lower with Nasdaq leading declines, the 10-year yield sits near 4.73%, and the 30-year has pushed to multi-year highs around 5.33% amid renewed inflation fears.
Bitcoin remains tightly coiled near $64,000. Institutional capital continues absorbing supply while long-term holders stack through the noise. On-chain liquidity is building underneath, setting up rotation into high-throughput settlement rails.
Tomorrow the SEC and CFTC will meet with the White House to discuss crypto regulation. A 1% to 2% shift of assets from the 15 largest asset managers would inject massive capital. This single move would eclipse the total buying of all spot ETFs and Strategy.
Bitcoin has just broken decisively from its triangle after 73 brutal days of unforgiving market chop. This tape with no direction has totally shattered the standard narrative trading playbook.
Legacy macro players are already positioning for the next explosive cycle. In this hostile environment, institutions cannot possibly underwrite promises that are simply speculative. But they can aggressively underwrite verifiable cash flow on-chain.
Bitget Institutional is putting $300 million behind quantitative trading firms through two programs:
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Arbitrage margins in crypto have compressed as competition increased. Firms are hunting across basis spreads, funding-rate differences, and tokenized assets which often means holding positions on both sides of a trade. That ties up margin across separate accounts, eating into returns.
Under Bitget's Unified Account, eligible rToken spot positions can serve as collateral for derivatives trading with no transfers needed. If you're running a tokenized US stock strategy, you can maintain your spot exposure while deploying related contract strategies through the same account, improving capital efficiency. Weekend collateral valuation follows the stock's Friday close, giving you a fixed reference when US markets are shut.
Target: 50+ projects funded in the first six months.
Bank CEOs—they're just like us! Ever played a fun little game with your coworkers where you have to sneak words into a presentation (or, erm, into your newsletter as Word of the Day)? Well, according to the Wall Street Journal, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sure has. That's apparently why he tosses off SAT words like "gainsay," "fantods," and "anfractuous" during quarterly earnings calls with analysts. The head of America's second-largest bank typically uses at least one ten-dollar word per call, and one BofA insider told the WSJ that the unusual words Moynihan slips into prepared scripts are randomly chosen just before the calls start.
Markets: With tensions in the Middle East worrying investors, stocks fell as oil rose yesterday and 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest level since June 2007. However, chipmaker Micron managed to avoid the dip following reports that the US has discouraged Apple from buying Chinese chips.
Jinny Lu, a pug with its tongue hanging out of the side of its mouth, won the 50th annual World's Ugliest Dog Contest. Before being adopted, the pup was abandoned in freezing weather in South Korea. This was her fourth attempt to clinch the world's ugliest title, and she finally made it after being first runner-up last year. The winner receives a $5,000 prize and eternal bragging rights.
Artificial intelligence is changing how students choose college majors, representing a shift in educational decision-making driven by AI tools and resources.
Sun-protective clothing is rising in popularity as consumers become more aware of skin protection and UV-related health concerns.
Construction workers recently discovered literal gold deposits, striking precious metals during their work.
Yields on U.S. government bonds — known as Treasurys — continue to climb, thanks to groaning federal deficits, bonkers corporate borrowing and uncertainty about monetary policy under Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh.
Why it matters: Virtually all borrowing costs — for mortgages, business loans, auto financing, etc. — are based in part on bond yields produced by trading in the Treasury market each day. When the U.S. government has to pay higher interest rates to borrow — yields are effectively those interest rates — it raises the floor for almost everyone else too, increasing borrowing costs across the economy.
Threat level: If yields go too high, these rising rates discourage economic activity, boost unemployment and can even lead to a recession.
How it works: Bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. So a pronounced rise in long-term yields on U.S. government bonds reflects a significant drop in prices for those bonds, or put another way, dropping demand from buyers.
The latest: Last week, investors required the highest yields in roughly two decades to buy some $67 billion in long-term U.S. government bonds. And the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ended the week at 5.26%, according to FactSet data, the highest since June 2007, despite benign reports on consumer and wholesale price inflation.
Zoom out: Analysts say the Treasury market is reacting to a number of dynamics that all point toward higher yields. Deficits are getting worse — the Congressional Budget Office last week raised its expectations for the U.S. annual budget deficit to $2.1 trillion, $200 billion more than expected back in February. Competition for capital from the AI boom is significant, as tech giants have sold a ton of corporate bonds to fund their data center building. Uncertainty about the Warsh-led Fed is another factor — critics say the new chairman's stated opposition to so-called forward guidance has increased the uncertainty premium embedded in bond yields.
What they're saying: "We think uncertainty is the larger driver," Mark Cabana, a bond market strategist with BofA Global Research, tells Axios. "There is literally a price to be paid for the lack of guidance that Warsh seems so set on. And the price is higher interest rates and a higher cost to the taxpayer."
Extreme heat is testing Italy's cheese banks, the vaults that hold Parmigiano Reggiano while it ages for years.
Why it matters: It's an 800-year-old industry that employs thousands and generates about $5 billion a year. The particulars of dairy finance are complex — producers don't want to wait years to turn a profit on sales while the cheese ages (anywhere from one to more than three years). They need regularly recurring income. So, farmers hand over wheels of cheese as collateral for loans.
Friction point: It costs more to store the cheese in the hot summer. Temperatures are at record highs. Demand for electricity is surging, and energy prices are also rising because of the Iran war. Plus, cows produce less milk in the heat — when temperatures are above 104°F, "cows spend more time lying down."
Yes, but: There is no evidence that the cheese's value is currently in danger. Credem, a large public commercial bank in Italy, has a subsidiary that runs two big warehouses that store the wheels and handle 2.3 million wheels of cheese a year. The bank has never lost money on these loans. "At present, Parmigiano Reggiano production is not at risk," per a statement to Axios from the Parmigiano Reggiano Consortium.
Between the lines: The key to the arrangement working is the value of the collateral: the cheese. It gets more valuable with age. The value of collateral is actually one of the biggest questions in finance right now. Increasingly, GPUs — the chips that are the backbone of AI processing — are being used as collateral for enormous amounts of debt. But it's not clear that GPUs hold their value because when technology improves, the older versions typically are worth less.
A weekend of headlines suggested growing sales momentum for Anthropic, the AI lab that is expected to IPO in September or early October. S&P 500 futures are up, and the AI infrastructure trade is getting a lift early in the week.
On Friday, France's top constitutional court struck down a ban on social media use by children under 15. The Conseil constitutionnel found the prohibition, which was set to kick in next month, infringed on minors' freedom of expression, declaring it "neither necessary, appropriate, nor proportionate" for its goal of protecting them from online harm. The Conseil did acknowledge the need to safeguard children on the internet, leaving the door open to restrict specific risks like addictive algorithms.
Several countries have followed Australia, which introduced a first-of-its-kind ban on under-16 social media use last year. President Emmanuel Macron has made the policy a core objective of his second term and, following Friday's ruling, ordered Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to draft a "legally robust" revision by spring 2027.
Bitcoin is still range-bound near $63,500, but the arguments for holding it are getting sharper. The global M2 money supply has hit an all-time high above $100 trillion — and the two companies that own the most bitcoin are responding not by panic-selling but by pointing at the math: 21 million coins, fixed forever, versus infinite money printing.
Meanwhile ether's daily chart just confirmed a "golden cross" — its 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day, a pattern historically associated with sustained outperformance. Goldman Sachs says a September Fed rate hike is "very unlikely" after last week's weak retail sales data. The dollar is at its lowest since June. The U.S.–Iran ceasefire expires today with no deal in sight and Hormuz traffic at a standstill. And XRP traders are building the most leveraged long position since the token was worth several times more — while everyone on social media turns bearish.
Risk assets are finding support despite crude holding elevated near $89 and lingering Middle East supply risks via the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. futures opened mixed, with Nasdaq showing relative strength while the 10-year yield sits near 4.69% and the dollar softens; low VIX and a data-dependent Fed keep the broader tape constructive for now.
Bitcoin remains tightly coiled near $63,000. Today's desk is tracking Lighter, Uniswap, Lido DAO for potential continuation signals.
Institutional capital continues absorbing supply while long-term holders stack through the noise. On-chain liquidity is building underneath, setting up rotation into high-throughput settlement rails.
Bitcoin sits near $63,300, roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak. Price has compressed into a declining triangle, with volatility metrics flashing patterns last seen near prior cycle ends. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy has gone quiet this week with no fresh purchases disclosed on the Monday filings that markets now treat as ritual. Instead, the firm has focused on building USD reserves and managing preferred stock, even selling modest BTC earlier this month to fund those moves.
The vacuum is real. Yet the capital filling it is different. Wall Street's largest platforms have moved from commentary to formal model-portfolio guidance of 1–4% crypto allocations. BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and JPMorgan are all expanding exposure. MSCI has revived a consultation that could force MicroStrategy out of global equity indices, creating independent selling pressure on MSTR regardless of Bitcoin's price.
This is no longer a story about one corporate treasury defending the bid. It is a rotation in who provides the structural demand and what form that demand takes.
China's economic weakness and its AI ambitions are putting competing demands on policymakers.
Why it matters: China's push to supercharge production even as domestic demand weakens leaves China's producers more reliant on foreign buyers and pressures industries abroad.
Driving the news: China's economy lost momentum in July, with consumer spending barely growing alongside a deepening investment slump.
The other side: China's factory engine continued to roar, even as demand at home remained weak.
Prescription drug prices fell 0.8% in July and are down 3.1% from a year ago — the steepest annual decline in more than six decades, according to the recent Consumer Price Index.
Potential factors: Trump administration officials are taking a victory lap for the price drop, although TrumpRx — the administration's website connecting patients with discounted cash prices for certain drugs — likely accounts for only part of the decline.
Zoom out: Changes in what Medicare pays pharmacies can show up in the prescription drug CPI. As blockbuster drugs lose patent protection, cheaper generics enter the market, a shift the government's inflation gauge is designed to capture.
Bitcoin's been around $63K for approximately six months now. The bears can't break the bulls and the bulls can't even mount a rally.
Bad news has been hitting but having little-to-no effect:
This time last year, any one of those headlines would have shaved 20% off the market. This time, hardly a wobble.
Everyone who wanted out is likely already out (stemming the sell pressure), but at the same time, there aren't any buyers to push things up. The good news is, the economy underneath all this is accelerating.
Wall Street is locked and loaded on crypto. It's not a matter of if, but when institutional capital enters the market in size.
The Senate went into recess without voting on the CLARITY Act, leaving crypto regulation in limbo.
OpenAI announced a lease for a sprawling data center in central Ohio with financing partly guaranteed by Nvidia, saying it will create 35,000 construction jobs and 2,500 permanent operating positions.
Zoom in: The data center will have 8 IT-gigawatts of computing capacity, powered by 10 gigawatts of new energy generation, on private land and federal property formerly used for uranium enrichment.
What we're watching: The deal may reignite fears of a "circular" AI bubble that could create systemic financial risks.
Intuitive Machines (+7.2%), the space company, said it received an "authorization to proceed" from an unnamed customer to start work on a $600 million, multisatellite communications infrastructure program.
Anthropic's second-quarter revenue exploded from a year ago, helping push the AI lab's annualized revenue run rate above $65 billion ahead of its expected IPO, according to figures reported by Bloomberg.
What we're watching: Anthropic could go public before its rival, OpenAI.
State of play: OpenAI's latest revenue run rate hit $40 billion, according to a message shared internally by co-founder Greg Brockman last week.
Reality check: The "winner" of any metric used to measure where each company is in the AI race changes constantly.
The Buss family is selling its remaining 17.8% stake in the Los Angeles Lakers to new majority owners Josh Kushner and Bob Iger.
Meta faces a landmark federal trial beginning Tuesday in a case where state attorneys general have accused the company of designing its social media platforms to hook kids and of lying about the associated risks.
In 2015, a collector paid $2.4 million for a large self-portrait by Chuck Close. In 2017, Close was accused of sexual harassment. In 2020, a portrait of his first wife sold at auction for just $615,000. The 2015 collector lost roughly 75% on the artist's misbehavior.
This can happen posthumously, too. After a biography of Eric Gill accused him of abusing his family, auction houses refused to sell his work at all. His collectors lost 100%.
Collectors of Pokémon cards never have this worry — because Snorlax will never do anything to embarrass you. Pokémon don't get hurt, either, and will never retire. Charizard is simultaneously the Babe Ruth of the 1920s and the Shohei Ohtani of the 2020s — equally relevant to every generation of Pokémon enthusiast. Forever.
Unlike baseball or hockey, Pokémon is popular nearly everywhere, rivaled perhaps only by soccer in geographical reach. Sports card collecting is now defined by lottery-like dynamics of manufactured scarcity. Collectors are driven to open hundreds or thousands of packs in hopes of hitting a rarity. The Pokémon Company, by contrast, keeps its card issuance to a regular schedule and does not turn its packs into lottery tickets by issuing ultra-rare 1-of-1s that promise to make a lucky collector instantly wealthy.
No Nintendo-related product would be so crassly financialized as to display the print run right on the front of the card. Pokémon cards are designed with a Japanese sensibility of quality that treats the card itself as an object of design and significance independent of its scarcity.
The primary catalyst behind the move is that the Phison CEO says "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026."
This is because building new semiconductor capacity takes years. Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from the moment they break ground on a new plant to the moment it produces a single sellable chip.
With demand growing faster than anyone projected and supply expansion structurally limited by that timeline, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years. NAND flash prices already nearly doubled over the back half of this year alone.
Micron's own strategy is compounding the shortage rather than fixing it. By shifting manufacturing capacity toward HBM (High Bandwidth Memory, the specialist chips bonded directly onto AI processors) to serve AI customers, Micron is pulling supply away from standard DRAM and NAND simultaneously. This tightens both markets at once, pushing gross margins toward 80%.
BofA expects Micron's free cash flow to grow from $55.7B this year to $188.6B by 2030. At this level, this figure would be larger than the free cash flow of roughly 450 companies currently in the S&P 500.
After noting all these catalysts, JPMorgan has raised its MU price target from $550 to $1,540.