HL PONS · XTB —
naplyw nowego kapitalu — cena +39.2%, OI +193.2%. czesciowo skorelowany z BTC.
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Zbieżność czasowa, nie dowód przyczyny — sprawdź sam.
Japan’s 3% yield shock is pulling the anchor from the global bond curve Sovereign Bond Markets Crack Under Global Inflation Pressures Japan’s 3% yield shock is pulling the anchor from the global bond curve Sep 1 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors The global bond markets have ceased to pretend this is a local story. Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to 3% for the first time since 1996. UK gilts rocketed. The US 30-year broke out of its upward pattern. That's not a garden-variety selloff. It’s every major sovereign trying to cram record debt into the market. Our desk reads this as global fiscal dominance. Japan is the wild card. BoJ tightening has a global impact, as it is still the biggest overseas holder of Treasuries It lifts each curve higher. What matters in crypto market analysis is the split. Bitcoin has risen about 22% since Treasury doubled long-end buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation. Gold declined. That break in a tight hedge correlation is the tell. Capital is beginning to distinguish the reserve central banks already possess from the reserve central banks can’t confiscate. Here’s what our traffic desk is seeing. Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. Geopolitical Risk, Oil Prices, and the Fed Policy Crossroad The global macro landscape experienced an abrupt shock overnight as military hostilities in the Middle East rattled commercial shipping corridors. Two major oil tankers, one Saudi-owned and one South Korean-operated, sustained direct projectile strikes near strategic waterways. This follows drone attacks on American bases in Jordan and renewed White House threats targeting key Iranian infrastructure. Crude oil prices staged an aggressive technical breakout from multi-month consolidation ranges in response. Rising energy inputs directly threaten the disinflation trajectory that supported risk assets throughout the summer. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to calm nervous markets during his televised appearances on Monday. He insisted that central banks should not tighten financial conditions into an isolated supply shock with core inflation contained. Bessent also fired back at Stanley Druckenmiller, claiming US Treasuries continue to outperform competing foreign sovereign debt markets. However, fixed-income markets are completely ignoring this political rhetoric. Accelerating energy costs paired with modest 1.5% US GDP growth creates severe stagflationary pressures for monetary policymakers. When energy prices spike during an economic slowdown, central banks lose their ability to stimulate growth without reigniting consumer price spirals. CME FedWatch pricing now reflects a 66.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Broader equities have turned defensive, driving a notable rotation away from richly valued semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure leaders. This brewing monetary squeeze is colliding directly with an unsustainable sovereign debt crisis across every major industrialized economy. Global Sovereign Bond Carnage and Macro Trading Dynamics The relentless sell-off in sovereign debt has officially escalated into a coordinated global crisis. Major finance ministries are dumping record amounts of paper into a market that has lost all appetite for duration. Without private buyers willing to absorb long-term paper, the long end of the global curve lacks a structural anchor. Japan is the primary driver behind this accelerating international repricing. To protect the yen from depreciation, the Bank of Japan is gradually raising interest rates to multi-decade highs. Because Japan is still the largest foreign creditor to US Treasuries, rising yields in Tokyo drive up borrowing costs in the United States and Europe. Our desk is monitoring several historical inflection points across global sovereign curves and institutional funding markets: Japan 10-Year Benchmark : Climbed to 3.00%, printing its highest sovereign borrowing yield since 1996. US 30-Year Treasury Yield : Confirmed a bullish breakout from a multi-year ascending triangle near 5.28%. European Sovereign Spread Surge : France 10-year yields reached 4.16%, Germany climbed to 3.31%, and Italy hit 4.15%. US Annual Debt Service : National interest expenses crossed an all-time record of $1.17 trillion at a 3.447% average rate. SOFR Lending Contraction : Secured Overnight Financing Rate volume plunged from $3.50 trillion down to $2.84 trillion. Global Macro Yield Index : Sovereign bond yields across twenty-two major economies reached their highest aggregate levels since 2008. The sharp drop in SOFR repo activity suggests that institutional hedge funds are quickly exiting the leveraged Treasury basis trade. When 50x-leveraged arbitrageurs abandon cash-futures spreads, the synthetic demand for government paper disappears overnight. With governments stuck in exponential debt-refinancing cycles, private capital is fleeing to unencumbered monetary assets. Bitcoin Decoupling and the Macro Liquidity Wave Institutional capital is rapidly waking up to sovereign insolvency, as Bloomberg mentions debasement surged 750% to a five-year peak. Since the US Treasury doubled liquidity buybacks to $4 billion per session, Bitcoin climbed 22% while spot gold surrendered its breakout. This decisive divergence marks a pivotal regime shift in our ongoing crypto market analysis. Physical gold is subject to jurisdiction-based freezes and sanctions, but Bitcoin provides mathematically provable scarcity that can’t be confiscated. Currency debasement is a
Plus: What higher rates are telling us | Tuesday, September 01, 2026 Axios Macro By Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown · Sep 01, 2026 Global bonds sold off overnight, pushing longer-term interest rates to multiyear highs in countries including Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom — a fascinating background for the G20 meeting of global finance ministers in North Carolina this week. Courtenay reports from the ground on the common problems — and differing solutions — offered by world leaders in this era of rising rates and high public debt. Situational awareness: The details of the labor market were mixed in July, per the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data out this morning. The number of job openings ticked up, but employers hired 278,000 fewer workers than in June, driving the hiring rate down two-tenths of a percentage point. Today's newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Cane and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 1,134 words, a 4.5-minute read. 1 big thing: The growth and debt divides G20 finance ministers and central bankers in the customary "family photo" in Asheville, North Carolina. Photo: U.S. Treasury Department public affairs The world's biggest economies need stronger growth to outrun mounting debt, aging populations and a new wave of global shocks. That much, the world's financial leaders can agree upon. But the G20 is exposing sharp differences over what's holding global growth back. The big picture: That's the reality on the ground as the world's leading finance ministers meet in Asheville, North Carolina, against a backdrop of rising global interest rates and massive debt overhangs. Stronger growth is both a cause of the rate surge and the most appealing alternative for solving debt problems, though the specifics vary across countries — as do their priorities and domestic politics. Driving the news: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stripped back the G20 finance agenda to focus on economic growth. In remarks that opened the finance gathering, Bessent said that years of "mission creep" had pulled the group away from its original purpose. This year's agenda left out much of the focus on climate change and inequality that have been key areas during recent years' G20 gatherings — much to the consternation of European delegations. The U.S. instead focused on deregulation, private sector investment, global imbalances and sovereign debt. State of play: U.S. officials say G20 members largely agree with Bessent on the need to focus on growth, with a caveat: What works in one economy may not translate to another. "I think the principles of what Secretary Bessent laid out — those are well understood, well agreed upon principles," Treasury Under Secretary Erin Browne told Axios in an interview on the conference sidelines. "But different economies have different challenges. We have members of the African Union that are here, and they have challenges that are very distinct from Germany, as an example," she said. Countries with the same apparent imbalance can have different problems underneath the hood, requiring very different fixes. "You could be a surplus country because you don't have enough investment demand, or you could be a surplus country because you don't have enough consumption demand," Browne said, referring to countries that take in more from trade and investment abroad than they send out. Of note: Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh made a similar point in his opening remarks, describing "enormous change in the global economy." "We're all experiencing it somewhat differently," Warsh said. The intrigue: While climate change was absent from the agenda, European officials said on the sidelines that it remained a priority. "It is part of the question related to the economic growth — to economic resilience," EU commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters this morning. "We are seeing more and more extreme weather events and they are taking a toll on the economy and public finances." "This new energy shortfall from the Iran war just reiterates the need of reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and strengthening of green production," Dombrovskis added. China's export boom, meanwhile, is putting far more pressure on Europe's growth model than that of the U.S. The so-called "China shock 2.0" is devastating Germany's manufacturing sector, forcing officials to consider harsher measures. ("It's important to move from analysis to action," Dombrovskis said.) U.S. tariffs have contributed to some diversion of Chinese goods toward other markets. "I warned the rest of the developed world and the upper-developing world that when the U.S. put up our tariff wall, that the excess goods from China would come to their shores. And unfortunately I was right," Bessent told reporters this morning. "This is a G7-plus-plus problem, ex-U.S. We have taken our measures ... and now it's up to the countries that are receiving these goods to do something about it." What to watch: The Iran war, now six months old and showing new signs of intensifying, is another shock that countries around the table have little control over but one that has wildly shifted their domestic economic outlook. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who chairs the Financial Stability Board, warned G20 ministers ahead of the meetings that the conflict has delivered a "substantial supply shock," fueling energy inflation and higher interest rates. Bessent played down the longer-term economic risk yesterday. "We will get to the other side of this Iran conflict, and the world will be better for that." A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek inside the forces reshaping health care with Axios Future of Health Care 2. Bessent on rates and growth Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The bond sell-off and the resulting higher interest rates are largely a story of higher growth prospects in the United States, Bessent argued. "If we look at the composition of the bond yields — inflation expectations are flat-to-down," the Treasury secretary said in a fi
A new CEO takes the reins... September 01, 2026 Presented By Good morning and welcome to September… the month when everyone stops complaining about the humidity and starts complaining about their fantasy football injuries. —Dave Lozo, Molly Liebergall, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Neal Freyman, Abby Rubenstein In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: A new era at Apple Colleges running out of students MapQuest having a moment Markets Nasdaq 26,370.89 -0.12% S&P 7,686.14 -0.33% Dow 53,185.9 -0.70% 10-Year 4.758% +4.0 bps Bitcoin $78,797.93 +0.19% PG&E $13.27 -20.06% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks slipped yesterday as investors worried about new Middle East tensions after the US struck Iran for the first time since July on Sunday. But all three major indexes still managed to pull off a winning August. Stock spotlight: PG&E and Edison International took a big hit after California lawmakers blocked a bill that would have limited how much money people could recover from utilities when their equipment starts wildfires. A NEW VERSION OF THE CEO IS AVAILABLE Ternus inherits prosperity, uncertainty as Apple CEO Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Your first day at a new job is always stressful—remembering names, filling out documents, locating the office snacks—but new Apple CEO John Ternus takes the big desk from Tim Cook today under slightly more pressure as he leads the company into the AI future. Ternus, 51, joined Apple in 2001 and made a name for himself overseeing the company’s hardware division. Now that he’ll be at the top, he is facing big challenges, including: Playing catch-up: The company was already behind when Apple Intelligence and Vision Pro landed with thuds in 2024. The next big moment is in two weeks, when Apple releases a new AI-powered Siri it hopes will compete with ChatGPT and Claude. Talent acquisition: Apple is no longer the most coveted destination for hardware talent; hundreds of former Apple employees have fled to OpenAI. Memory shortage: AI companies are gobbling up chips, making them scarcer and more costly for Apple, which is passing those expenses on to customers. Cook’s legacy When he replaced Steve Jobs in 2011, Cook was filling perhaps the biggest shoes in tech boss history and that came with questions of whether he could continue Apple’s enormous growth. The answer was a resounding yes —shares climbed 2,000% under his (Apple) watch, the company briefly reached a $5 trillion market cap in July, and after selling 72 million phones in 2011, Apple will sell 255 million this year, per Counterpoint Research estimates. The 65-year-old Cook won’t be retiring and giving up his company discount at Apple Stores—he’s staying on as executive chairman, a role where he can continue to work as a liaison with President Trump, aka the guy who schmoozes to keep tariffs from crushing profits. Hard launch: Cook will be in attendance for the company’s annual product event next Wednesday, but he won’t take the stage. Instead, Ternus will face the public for the first time as CEO to introduce a new foldable iPhone. —DL Sponsored By PwC Have you asked yourself these defining AI questions? PwC CEO and US Senior Partner Paul Griggs notes that AI is creating a workforce dividend . The question is, are you tapping into yours? In this article , Griggs shares his POV on the debate about AI and jobs and how AI, when leveraged thoughtfully, can actually boost performance and enable capabilities that make new frontiers possible. Together, AI and the human workforce have the potential to create a new springboard of capacity and resources. Not messily, not in place of, but symbiotically. Read his take here and see what organizations can ask themselves to understand where they stand. World Tour de headlines Tupac Shakur in 1994. Raymond Boyd/Getty Images ⚖️ Duane “Keffe D” Davis convicted in 1996 murder of Tupac Shakur. A Nevada jury found Keefe, now 63, guilty of murder with a deadly weapon for allegedly orchestrating the hip-hop legend’s killing 30 years ago. It marks the first conviction in the decades-old high-profile slaying, as the case had gone cold until Keefe said in interviews and a 2019 memoir that he had been involved. Keefe, a leader of the Crips, said that he had ordered the killing and procured the gun as revenge amid a feud with the Bloods, a rival gang Shakur was affiliated with. Despite having publicly revealed this, Keefe pleaded not guilty, claiming he had made up the story for money. He said yesterday in court that he wanted to appeal. He could face life in prison. 📦 FTC delivers lawsuit accusing Amazon of secretly upping ad prices. The Federal Trade Commission and 22 states sued the e-commerce giant yesterday in a Seattle federal court, claiming that Amazon overcharged advertisers for sponsored listings. “These higher costs were largely passed on to American consumers,” the FTC’s chair said. Amazon fired back that the FTC “fundamentally misunderstands how advertisers operate” and has “no evidence of consumer price increases.” The two have tangled before: Amazon settled a different suit over Prime subscriptions for $2.5 billion last year, and a separate suit accusing Amazon of illegal monopolization is scheduled for trial next year. 🏛️ Met cancels planned Gala exhibit on designer Galliano after backlash. The first Monday in May 2027 is going to look different from what was originally planned after the Metropolitan Museum canceled plans for a Costume Institute exhibition and gala on John Galliano’s work. The replacement plan is TBD. The decision comes after the plan drew criticism from the Jewish community, local politicians, and museum donors. Galliano was fired from his position at Christian Dior and convicted of a crime in France over antisemitic and anti-Asian statements he made in 2011. After going to rehab and meeting with Jewish representatives, he became the creative directo
Plus: Golden Apple | Tuesday, September 01, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 01, 2026 👋 Hello September! Hi s torically, not a great month for stocks, but you know what they say: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 📉 A global bond sell-off has picked up steam this morning, with Japan's 10-year yield hitting 3% for the first time in three decades and yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities climbing. S&P 500 futures are down, and oil prices are higher, as the U.S. weighs more strikes on Iran . Speaking of past performance, today Matt looks back on the just-concluded earnings season. It was, in a word, huge. Plus, we assess Tim Cook's epic run at Apple as it comes to a close. Onward! In 982 words, a 3.5-minute read. 1 big thing: Big earnings failed to answer the big AI questions By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet; Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios Second quarter profits were huge. But they were still not big enough to put lingering questions about the AI boom to rest. Why it matters: The giant results provided little proof that companies are capable of generating a reasonable return on the biggest investment boom in recent memory. By the numbers: With Nvidia's report last week, Q2 earnings season is basically done and dusted. It was one for the books. Earnings per share for S&P 500 companies rose 52.6% in the second quarter as of yesterday, compared with the same quarter the prior year, according to FactSet. That's the biggest year-on-year increase since the economy sprang back to life in 2021 after the worst of the pandemic. The big picture: That sounds like pretty great news. And it is, more or less. But there are a couple of big caveats to keep in mind. First, a giant chunk of second quarter profits consisted of paper gains related to the rising value of the stock that Alphabet and Amazon own in other tech companies. In other words, large, unusual one-off gains goosed the results. Zoom in: As we've pointed out before, Google's parent company — Alphabet — posted a roughly $98 billion net gain related to its stake in SpaceX. Amazon also reported a similar gain of about $53 billion tied, in part, to its ownership stake in Anthropic. Separately, Nvidia reported a gain of more than $7.5 billion on its stock holdings of other tech companies. (Though FactSet did not incorporate those investment gains into its earnings growth calculations.) Zoom out: These are not small numbers. For example, the smallest of those — Nvidia's roughly $7.5 billion investment gain — is about the same size as all of the Q2 profits produced by the bottom 70 companies in the S&P 500. Reality check: To be sure, even if you discount gains related to tech company holdings in other tech companies, profitability still looks very strong. FactSet analyst John Butters noted that even if you strip out the earnings impact of Alphabet and Amazon, earnings would still be up a sizzling 33.8% in the quarter. Still, the key contributors to that pile of profits are the suppliers of the debt-driven AI infrastructure boom, such as Nvidia and Micron Technology. (Energy stocks also contributed a bit, benefiting from the Iran war's price spikes.) It's true that we have seen profitability improve in less AI-centric areas of the market, such as industrial stocks . But when you dig into it, the AI buildout turns out to be driving those companies as well. The bottom line: This is all OK, as long as the building boom continues. But... The investment surge has become more reliant on debt and off-balance-sheet backstops . And at some point people will want to see tangible proof that end users will pay enough for AI so these companies can make a decent return. This quarter provided little conclusive evidence on that front. Investment booms , by their nature, involve spending now and paying back later. In the aggregate, that tends to boost revenues for companies selling into the boom — chipmakers, for example — and collecting their money today. The costs of that investment are only recognized slowly over time. That could be making the profit picture look better right now than it will turn out to be over the long term. What we're watching: The recent rise in interest rates , and whether those increased borrowing costs could become a challenge for the AI trade. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek inside the forces reshaping health care with Axios Future of Health Care 2. Tim Cook's golden Apple By Emily Peck Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Apple CEO Tim Cook hands the reins over to John Ternus today, stepping down after 15 years of running the company. Why it matters: He had an epic run. By the numbers: When Cook took over in August 2011, Apple's stock was trading at $13.35. It closed at $316.61 yesterday. Zoom in: That 2,272% gain easily outpaced the growth of the major stock indexes. The company's market cap — the value of all its outstanding shares — is now $4.7 trillion, up from $347 billion in 2011. Stunning stat: Under Cook, Apple's market cap grew by $32 million an hour for 15 years, Bank of America calculated last month. The big picture: Cook's big innovation was taking the company from its roots as a device maker beholden to product cycles to a juggernaut with a huge recurring-revenue business built on App Store fees and services like iCloud, Apple TV and Music, Apple Pay and Apple News+. Apple now has more than 1.5 billion paid subscriptions across its platforms, the company said on its July 30 investor call. Its broader services business brought in $30.7 billion in the most recent quarter, up 12% from a year ago. What to watch: The next challenge is how to navigate the AI era — there's some uncertainty there. Yes, but: For all of Cook's magic, Steve Jobs still has a winning number. Apple's stock had even more growth under his stewardship, which began in 1997, with Jobs in the role of interim CEO. Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek
Plus: Investors just want to have fun without feeling bad about it. September 1, 2026 PRESENTED BY Good morning. They may look like ducks, but can they quack like ducks? The Securities and Exchange Commission last week charged 38 entities with falsifying Forms ADV and pretending to be legitimate investment advisers. The groups allegedly copied ownership structures and numerical data from real firms, listed Colorado addresses where they had no presence and provided disconnected phone numbers or numbers belonging to unrelated businesses. Some allegedly created websites falsely claiming SEC registration. The SEC said many operators were likely overseas and exploited emerging technologies to target retail investors. The whole “fake it til you make it” thing can only go so far. INDUSTRY NEWS Harrison Street Opens Interval Fund Auction to Ease Liquidity Pressures Photo by Pressmaster via iStock Going once. Going twice. Sold! As redemption pressures continue to test interval funds, a first-of-its-kind auction mechanism may offer investors a new path to liquidity. On Friday, Harrison Street Real Estate’s VCMIX fund began a three-week intraperiod auction process designed to ease redemption bottlenecks while helping funds better manage liquidity. It’s an intriguing, and potentially important, development for private-market investors, according to Max Curtin, a senior manager research analyst for Morningstar, who just published an in-depth analysis of the process alongside fellow analyst Jason Kephart. If the auction works, it could help advisors and their clients invest more confidently in interval funds. If it doesn’t, it might prompt even more redemption requests for stressed funds, like VCMIX. “Auctions like this have happened in other contexts, but this looks novel for interval funds,” Curtin told Advisor Upside. “Speaking from the outside, it’s going to be key to see the mechanisms of the process. Executing the auction needs to be error free. They’ll also want to see strong participation, which isn’t guaranteed for something that’s brand new.” A Liquidity Imbalance Interval funds invest in hard-to-sell private assets like private credit and real estate while promising periodic share repurchases, which are typically capped at 5% to 25% of outstanding shares per quarter. When requests exceed caps, funds respond by making payouts on a pro-rata basis, which may leave investors waiting many quarters for full capital access. “The idea of an auction targets this persistent liquidity problem, which for VCMIX has lasted for 15 consecutive quarters,” Curtin said. “The fund isn’t alone in that trajectory. Spikes in market volatility and negative alternative-asset headlines have driven redemption requests past quarterly limits for major managers, so I’m sure other issuers will be watching this closely.” Key details about the process include: Sellers will choose from preestablished targets, such as a 5% discount to the fund’s net asset value, to potentially redeem shares outside of the normal quarterly window. Buyers, meanwhile, place bids based on the same preset target discount rates. Shares trade hands at the conclusion of the three-week auction window, and only at the price with the highest number of matches, limiting the possibility for buyers and sellers to transact at different prices. Once the auction is concluded, another two consecutive quarters of proration are required to trigger the next one. Ultimately, Harrison Street hopes to cut down on, or even halt entirely, the number of prorations it has imposed on investors’ redemption requests, Curtin said. No Forced Conversions. If it’s a success, the auction offers a potentially better alternative to forced fund conversions. Curtin contrasted the approach with Bluerock Private Real Estate’s 2025 conversion to a listed closed-end fund, after which shares traded at more than a 40% discount to NAV, highlighting the risks investors can face when liquidity pressures intensify. Written by John Manganaro PRESENTED BY MSCI The Equity Risk Premium Just Hit a Dot-Com Era Low Photo via MSCI AI-related growth has supported parts of the equity market this year, but the AI infrastructure-fueled rally has coincided with elevated valuations and a narrowing margin for disappointment. MSCI’s mid-year outlook shows the equity risk premium, the expected reward for holding stocks over bonds , is at its lowest point since the early 2000s. Semiconductors rose 55% in the first half of 2026 , outpacing every other industry in the index, while software slid 18% over the same stretch. That dispersion suggests AI-related gains are growing increasingly concentrated in a narrower slice of the market. A premium this low leaves little room for AI earnings to disappoint. Flagging any concentrated exposure in your clients’ portfolios now could help you get ahead of an awkward conversation down the line. Read more in MSCI’s mid-year outlook. INVESTING STRATEGIES Advisor Interest in Long-Short SMAs Nearly Doubles Nobody likes paying taxes, but these accounts could be the ibuprofen to that headache. Long-short strategies have been a staple of hedge funds serving institutional and ultra-high-net-worth investors for decades, but they’ve recently migrated into separately managed accounts. That has opened up the strategy to wealth management clients. It’s still early innings, but tax-managed long-short SMAs are quickly gaining popularity. Last year, 33% of advisors identified tax-managed, long-short SMAs as the products they were most interested in adding to their portfolios, according to a Cerulli survey. This year, that figure has climbed to nearly 60%. Improving tax capabilities has also been a top concern for advisers this year. “With many wealth managers turning to tax optimization to drive alpha in their portfolios, tax-aware long-short strategies can be a very attractive option to generate additional tax-loss harvesting opportunities,” said Michael Manning, a Cerulli research anal
The restarted US-Iran war has put oil reserves back in focus. September 1, 2026 Good morning. Dale Sanders proved once again that old woods burn warmest. The 91-year-old reclaimed his crown as the oldest person to complete the Appalachian Trail on Monday. Nicknamed “Grey Beard” because, well, obviously, Sanders completed his hike of the 2,193-mile trail that runs between Georgia and Maine after setting out on September 6 last year. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy allows hikers a full year to complete the path. Sanders’ journey included resting periods and injury delays, with one particularly rough fall leading to a short hospitalization. But the man who first set the record in 2017, when he was 82, remained undeterred. After all, his friend and fellow hiker M.J. Eberhart, whose trail name is the undeniably awesome Nimblewill Nomad, completed the trail at 83, motivating him to train to reclaim his title. In addition to the Appalachian record, Sanders is also the oldest person to paddle the 2,340 mile-long Mississippi River, which he completed at the spry age of 87. When you hit the elliptical on gym break later, remember you’ve got nothing on Grey Beard and Nimblewill Nomad. MARKETS S&P 500 7,686.14 ▼ -0.33% DJI 53,185.90 ▼ -0.70% METL $28.73 ▼ -1.43% *Presented by Sprott. Stock data as of market close on August 31, 2026. One active ETF, every metal in demand. Meet METL. *Please see important METL disclosures below. ENERGY New US, Iran Strikes Highlight Shrinking US Oil Reserves Photo via imageBROKER/Alex Grichenko/Newscom Millions of high school students are returning in the next week to contend with polynomials and logarithmic functions. But the most anxiety-inducing math these days is the more basic arithmetic of oil reserves. Global energy markets have been under a pall of uncertainty since the two-month window to negotiate a US-Iran peace closed last month. On Monday, the two countries exchanged strikes, marking the first US attack in a month. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.7% to $90.52, and gas at the pump averaged $4.08, or 28% more than a year ago. Canadian Holiday US refineries have been operating near full capacity during the war. In the week ending August 21, they processed 17.4 million barrels of crude oil per day , the highest level since 2019. The US posted record exports of crude and petroleum products this summer, and the oil sector reported the biggest profits in years. But, with the war back on, many fear a looming supply cliff just got steeper. Canada, which typically ships 4 million barrels of heavy crude to US refiners per day, is slated to take 300,000 barrels of daily capacity offline this month for scheduled maintenance. The US would normally offset that by tapping the country’s crude oil reserves, but the efforts to negate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have cost the country more than 120 million barrels in storage in 2026. The volume of crude held in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels last week , the lowest level since the early 1980s. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US hopes sanctions will bring Iran back to the negotiating table, while President Donald Trump is touting a (light-on-details) oil deal with Venezuela. But that won’t fix the short-term supply problem: Trump said the US will control 17 Venezuelan oilfields that would boost output by 1.5 million barrels per day. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Chevron, which rose 2.1% Monday, and Halliburton, which rose 1.9%, are in serious talks to sign deals involving Venezuelan crude. But it will take massive investments and lots of time to get this oil online, with Jefferies analysts writing “legal and execution risks remain high, with any major production uplift likely years away.” Brave the Cave: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a remarkable engineering achievement, which is now its own issue. America’s oil reserves are held in dozens of huge underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana. When oil is drawn out, water must be pumped in to maintain the integrity of the caves. Officials say a minimum of 70 million barrels is required to stabilize the caves, but experts have warned escalated structural risks kick in when the reserves drop below 300 million barrels. In other words, right now. Written by Sean Craig ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE OpenAI Notches $1 Billion Ad Milestone OpenAI thinks it’s on pace to make $1 billion in revenue from its ad biz annually. The AI company said Monday its annualized revenue run rate hit $1 billion in less than 200 days since it started serving ads. Annualized revenue run rate is an inside-baseball term that doesn’t mean OpenAI’s ad unit will for sure make $1 billion annually — but it could. While OpenAI said in April it expected to make $2.5 billion from ads this year, it still touted the $1 billion rate yesterday as a milestone for its diversified business model. The company is continuing to expand access for advertisers in more countries to buy ad space next to sage ChatGPT advice like “You’re absolutely right! You should get bangs.” History Repeats Itself Ads drive the vast majority of revenue for search and social media companies that rose to prominence around when AI was a digital mom in Smart House . About 98% of Meta’s total revenue comes from ads. The biggest piece of Alphabet’s revenue pie comes from ads as well, though its share is waning as the company’s cloud unit grows. OpenAI has been slowly introducing ads to users’ chat boxes since first launching them less than a year ago. But its place in the digital-ads world has drawn some side-eye: Anthropic touted in its Super Bowl commercials that its Claude chatbot will remain ad-free, a not-so-subtle dig at OpenAI. The company wrote in a blog that the nature of many of its users’ conversations with Claude is “deeply personal” and ads in that context would feel “incongruous” or “inappropriate.” Perplexity meanwhile briefly tested ads before s
Spot accumulation is driving Bitcoin past legacy risk. 🚨5 Plays to Catch While Bond Breakdown and Bitcoin Breakout Spot accumulation is driving Bitcoin past legacy risk. Sep 1 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Bitcoin is aggressively decoupling from legacy risk, surging on pure spot accumulation to defy historical September seasonality. Meanwhile, traditional markets digested a global sovereign bond breakdown before opening Monday to fresh U.S.–Iran hostilities and commercial tanker strikes. The tension is no longer just about Fed commentary. It is the reality of global yields breaking out, with Japan hitting 3%, colliding directly with an energy supply shock. Equities are fading, the Treasury curve is buckling, and September rate hike odds just pushed to 66%. Yet, crypto is absorbing the liquidity while gold retraces its recent breakout. Our desk treats this aggressive divergence as the debasement trade finally going mainstream. Sticky inflation paired with a hotter oil print is now the ultimate tax on risk. When sovereign bond markets break, capital flees to absolute scarcity. Here is what we are watching today. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Bond markets across 22 economies are under stress. How do central banks resolve the debt trap? 🖨️ Debt monetization / QE 🛑 Forced austerity 💥 Broader liquidity crunch Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – NEAR(NEARUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #2 – ETHFI(ETHFIUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #3 – STABLE (STABLEUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #4 – Polkadot(DOTUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #5 – TESLA (TSLA) 4-Hour Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. 50% off your first month, USE CODE: terminal ($100 off) Chart #1 – NEAR(NEARUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) NEAR Protocol has broken out of a multi-week descending triangle/wedge structure, confirming support above the $1.878 breakout shelf to trade around $1.923 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as a high-throughput, sharded Layer-1 blockchain powered by Nightshade consensus, Chain Abstraction, and AI agent infrastructure, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $2.291 resistance target as long as the $1.756–$1.878 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $1.878 Stop Loss: $1.756 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $2.0 TP2: $2.299 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – ETHFI(ETHFIUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) ether.fi (ETHFI) has established a local higher-low base around the $0.5200–$0.5300 area and reclaimed the $0.5550 horizontal support shelf, currently trading near $0.5646 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as the leading decentralized, non-custodial delegated liquid restaking protocol on Ethereum powered by eETH and automated yield strategies across EigenLayer and Symbiotic, this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.6777 resistance target as long as the $0.5154–$0.5550 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $ 0.5550 Stop Loss: $0.5154 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.6084 TP2: $0.6777 Chart #3 – STABLE (STABLEUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Stable has established a rounded bottom accumulation base near $0.02600 and broken above the $0.02785 resistance shelf, currently trading around $0.02887 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as a high-throughput, EVM-compatible Layer-1 blockchain built specifically for stablecoin economies and payment infrastructure utilizing USDT for native gas and settlement, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.03406 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.02608–$0.02785 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.02785 Stop Loss: 0.02608 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.03064 TP2: $0.03406 Chart #4 – Polkadot(DOTUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Polkadot has broken out of a multi-week descending diagonal trendline and confirmed support above the $0.844 breakout level, currently consolidating near $0.857 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as a multichain network enabling shared security, cross-consensus messaging (XCM), and interoperable app-chains via its Polkadot 2.0 agile coretime architecture, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.991 resistance target as long as the $0.808–$0.844 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.844 Stop Loss: $0.808 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.908 TP2: $0.991 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – TESLA (TSLA) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) ( TSLA refers to the stock of Tesla and not a cryptocurrency.) Tesla has printed a strong bullish continuation off its August accumulation base, breaking out and reclaiming support above the $358.78–$362.74 level to trade around $367.76 on the 4-hour timeframe. Powered by high-volume global electric vehicle production, expanding energy storage (Megapack) deployments, and ongoing advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) neural network architecture and humanoid robotics (Optimus), this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $402.87 overhead resistance target as long as the $344.57–$358.78 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $358 Stop Loss: $344 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $380 TP2: $402 Banter’s Take Geopolitical instability and a breakin
Reactions to Trump’s oil grab in Venezuela... August 31, 2026 Presented By Time to wake up, campers. It’s the last day of August, and for some, the symbolic end of summer. The “-ber” months are nigh, and with them, come the crunching of leaves, the wearing of flannels, and, of course, the eating of pies. But, don’t despair, summer warriors. There are still technically three weeks left. That’s plenty of time to get sunscreen in your eyes, suffer inner-thigh chafe, and accidentally burn yourselves on a metal seat belt buckle. —Brendan Cosgrove, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll look at: Trump’s plan to take over Venezuela’s oil reserves NASA’s super-powerful new telescope The NFL’s first Navajo player Markets: Year-to-Date Nasdaq 26,402.42 +13.60% S&P 7,711.76 +12.65% Dow 53,559.99 +11.44% 10-Year 4.720% +55.7 bps Bitcoin $78,708.11 -10.06% Marvell $216.62 +155.28% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 11:30am ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Geopolitics and Friday’s jobs report are expected to drive events on Wall Street this week, with some tech earnings sprinkled in for good measure. Stock spotlight: Chipmaker Marvell is ready for a brand new day of trading today after shares Sadie Sank more than 10% on Friday, despite an earnings beat. oil change The US’ crude awakening in Venezuela Jose Isaac Bula/Anadolu via Getty Images Everybody agrees President Trump’s new deal with Venezuela is tapping into something besides oil reserves. Whether that something is energy security, or something else, is in the eye of the beholder. What’s the deal? On Friday, Trump announced on social media that his administration had struck a deal with Venezuela to obtain majority control of one-fifth of the country’s oil reserves, or about 65+ billion barrels. As part of the deal, the US will have a direct financial stake in a private company, which, per the Wall Street Journal, will: Be led by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. Have rights to the oil fields for 100 years. Become the second-biggest corporate holder of proven oil reserves in the world, behind Saudi Aramco. That typing sound you hear is Taylor Sheridan reworking scripts for the next season of Landman . The deal is fueling mixed reactions Trump said the arrangement will greatly increase the US’ oil supply and help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which sits at its lowest level in decades amid the Iran war. That plan faces a Capitol Hill-shaped speed bump , though, since Congress has to green-light strategic reserve spending. What about Democrats? For some lawmakers, the oil deal is confirmation that the US’ removal of President Nicolás Maduro in January was motivated by oil, not the federal drug trafficking offenses that he’s been charged with. Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine called it “corruption at epic scale.” What is Venezuela saying? Acting President Delcy Rodríguez said the deal will bring in tens of billions of dollars in investment, resulting in thousands of jobs and $209 billion in tax revenue, all while modernizing the country’s oil infrastructure. But not everyone is convinced. Venezuela’s hard-liners aren’t thrilled with such close US cooperation, while Rodríguez’s opposition is upset they weren’t involved in negotiations, according to Bloomberg. Will this help gas prices? Probably not in the short term. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure will need more than a spit shine to get up and running. And that could take years, which is one of the reasons oil companies have been reluctant to move into Venezuela following Maduro’s removal.— BC Sponsored By Indeed CEOs weigh in on hiring How are hiring, leadership, and business changing in the AI era? Indeed CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff are coming together to unpack that question. The conversation will happen at Indeed FutureWorks . Tune in virtually as Time CEO Jessica Sibley moderates the session about how hiring leaders can navigate the recent shifts in tech. The leaders will also discuss the future of business , the next frontier of tech innovation, and the strategies for keeping humans at the center of it. You won’t want to miss this conversation. Grab your free tickets today . World Tour de headlines Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images 🤖 OpenAI plans to cut ties with Cursor after SpaceX bought it. OpenAI is severing its relationship with the coding agent and cutting off access to its models following Cursor’s acquisition by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. “We are making this choice because we cannot be confident that SpaceX will use our technology within our terms of service,” OpenAI said in a statement. The move deepens the feud between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Musk, after Musk sued the company he co-founded for allegedly violating its mission. Musk lost that lawsuit in May, but said he plans to appeal. In response to the news that OpenAI will cut ties with Cursor, Musk said, “I couldn’t care less.” 🇮🇸 Iceland voted against a chance to join the EU. In a narrow referendum, Icelanders voted against resuming talks to join the European Union, the country’s national broadcaster reported yesterday. Many of the “no” voters were reportedly concerned that joining the bloc would threaten Iceland’s control of its lucrative fishing industry. The result is seen as a setback for the EU, which is trying to attract new member states and gain a stronger foothold in the Arctic, per the New York Times. “Yes” voters thought that joining the EU could boost the country’s economy and stabilize its geopolitical standing. Iceland is the only NATO member without its own military. 📺 Trump calls for Meet the Press host Welker to face “rebuke or punishment.” In a social media post yesterday, President Trump called for NBC News journalist Kristen Welker to be reported to the FCC for saying he has “mixed results” on his endorsements of candidates. Trump’s record of primary endorsements is historic
Plus: Index funds ate the world | Monday, August 31, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Aug 31, 2026 😕 Monday, Monday. Let's do it. 🛢️ Oil is up and stock futures slipped after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend. The U.S. hit rocket launchers on an Iranian island , and Iran targeted U.S. military bases in the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Today we're talking about big, multitrillion-dollar parts of the market that may not be sexy, but are hugely important to everyone: bonds and index funds. We promise it's fun. Really! Let's go! In 945 words, a 3.5-minute read. 1 big thing: Bonds run the world By Emily Peck Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios The bond market is growing more interesting lately — and that's concerning. Why it matters: The $160 trillion global bond market is like the plumbing in your house. You don't think about it until it stops working and you've got a nasty situation on your hands. The big picture: Long-term government bond yields for the U.S. and other G7 countries have been climbing — hovering at levels last seen in 2007 before the financial crisis — and raising concerns about borrowing costs growing more expensive for countries that are already staring down heavy debt loads. The AI boom, meanwhile, has spread to the market for corporate bonds, sparking worries about a bubble. What to watch: It's a perfect moment to release a book laying out the history of the bond market: "A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World" by Robin Wigglesworth is out on Sept. 29. Where it stands: Axios recently caught up with Wigglesworth. Here's a snippet of our conversation, which has been edited and condensed for clarity: Axios: If bonds are so important, as you argue, why do we mostly talk about stocks? Wigglesworth: I think the stock market has always just been seen as a little bit more glamorous, maybe because it goes up and down a bit. Bonds are, you know, if they work as they are supposed to, they are supposed to be boring. There have been a lot of meme stocks over the years. There's never been a meme bond. Big Tech is on a bond binge now, and you say we should be worried. Why? I used to be profoundly relaxed about whether there's an AI bubble or not. I think bubbles are very hard to identify. And this is what the stock market does. It goes up and down a lot, and people go over their skis. I think that's fine. It's working as intended. But there's a difference when those bubbles become more fueled by debt. Big shocks ripple through credit. The hangovers. Even for humdrum investment booms, the economic hangover tends to be just a little worse. With housing in the 2000s, the railways in the 19th century, they end up being really nasty. Photo: Courtesy of Robin Wigglesworth We say a lot at Axios Markets that the stock market's not the economy, but what I'm hearing from you is the bond market is the economy. Yes. I don't want to sound too alarmist [about tech bonds] because we're still talking about very profitable companies. But the fact that this has morphed from being like a stock market mania to being something that is definitely being fueled by debt and off-balance sheet debt , that is definitely worrying. If there is a big crash, and we look for symptoms, this would be one of the first things you'd point to. Maybe the bigger worry is the Treasury market? The biggest, most-liquid giant bond market we've ever seen. How are you feeling about it? The Treasury market really is, it's at the apex. It is the greatest show on Earth. It's what matters. It kind of represents the cost of money, not just for Americans, but obviously for the rest of the world. People have been freaking out about it for 20 years, and I suspect we'll be still freaking out about it for another 20 years. I am far less worried than anybody else about the U.S. debt issue, but I've gone from maybe like 1% worry to like 3% worry. These numbers are completely made up and arbitrary. But even a 3% chance of the U.S. defaulting in any form or fashion... I think that's super scary. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek inside the forces reshaping health care with Axios Future of Health Care 2. 🥳 Happy 50th to the first index fund By Emily Peck Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios The OG stock index fund, the Vanguard 500, turns 50 years old today. Why it matters: Passive funds ate the world. Today, index funds make up 64% of all stock fund assets , and millions of investors use them. Most of us are socking away money in these things automatically through 401(k) payroll deductions. Initially called the First Index Investment Trust, the fund launched on Aug. 31, 1976 — the dawn of the passive investing era. Flashback: Vanguard founder John Bogle raised just $11.3 million at the fund's launch, short of his $150 million target. At the time, people liked to invest in actively managed funds. Skeptical investors labeled the endeavor "Bogle's Folly." Between the lines: Americans love a good folly, however, as Bogle himself pointed out in a speech in 2004 . Also labeled as follies: William Seward's purchase of Alaska, the Erie Canal and Robert Fulton's steamboat. By the numbers: More than $18 trillion was held in equity index funds and ETFs, as of June, compared with about $12 trillion in actively managed funds, per ICI . The Vanguard 500 has about $1.7 trillion in assets under management, as of July 31 . A $10,000 investment at launch would have grown to $2.4 million by July 31, Vanguard notes in a press release this morning. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek inside the forces reshaping health care with Axios Future of Health Care Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Discover how . Follow Axios across:
Plus: Apple’s virtuous AI patience may soon pay off. August 31, 2026 PRESENTED BY ART Good morning and happy Monday. What’s at the center of the attention economy these days? Judging by Meta’s recent ad spend, it’s Instagram, YouTube, TikTok and … the print edition of The New York Times and other legacy newspapers. As part of its settlement with 29 states last week in a case alleging the company fueled youth social media addiction and mental health disorders, Meta agreed to pay a giant settlement of as much as $18 billion and make significant safety updates to its family of apps and platforms. But it all comes with a significant contingency: Meta’s competitors, TikTok and YouTube, must agree to implement similar changes, too. If not, Meta’s safety efforts will be fruitless as teen users simply float their attention and impressionable minds elsewhere, the company argued. By Friday, Meta took out full-page advertisements in the national print editions of the NYT , Washington Post , Los Angeles Times and other newspapers pleading for its rivals to join its virtuous (or rather, court-mandated) cause. While we applaud independent media’s big ad sale, we can’t help but think Meta had a much easier and direct avenue to reach eyeballs. By the company’s own count, it reaches about 1.5 billion people every day. MARKETS S&P 500 7,711.76 ▼ -0.25% DJI 53,559.99 ▼ -0.02% GBUG $51.72 ▼ -3.85% *Presented by Sprott. Stock data as of market close on August 28, 2026. The only active ETF for gold and silver miners. Meet GBUG. *Please see important GBUG disclosures below. BIG TECH Apple Enters Phase 2 of its AI Long Game John Ternus is officially CEO of Apple, and he’s going to fold right out of the gate. AIn his first big event as the top boss, next week’s “Surprise and Shine” media event at the company’s Cupertino headquarters, Ternus is all but confirmed to be unveiling the endlessly rumored foldable iPhone and he’s just launched the new AI-powered Siri previously showcased at this summer’s WWDC conference. It’s an attempt to make the 20-year-old iPhone feel young again, just as artificial intelligence ushers in a new era for consumer tech. The good news for Apple? After two decades, it has a massive reach to 2.5 billion devices, giving it an edge in the AI age unlike any other. Rent the AI Runway Apple’s AI strategy has been simple and well-regarded by Wall Street. Phase 1 involved sitting back and letting everyone else spend big on the AI models of tomorrow. For one salient data point showing why Apple has become Wall Street’s favorite anti-AI defensive play: As Alphabet has embarked on a capex spending spree worth roughly 40% of its revenue, Apple’s capex plans run a little closer to just 2% of revenue. For another data point: Apple, the stock market’s buyback king, authorized another $100 billion in buybacks this Spring, while Alphabet cut its 33-quarter buyback streak earlier this year. With the imminent launch of Siri AI, Apple is now definitively entering Phase 2 of its AI long game. And it’s the same play the company has always run: leverage a massive consumer reach to become Silicon Valley’s top rent collector. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The division crossed the $100 billion revenue mark for the first time ever in its last fiscal year. The unit recorded $30 billion in revenue in its most recent quarter, on typically juicy margins of around 75%. By serving as the meeting point between end-users and top AI models, Apple is set to grow its Services unit even further. In fact, it already has: Apple scored $900 million last year taking a cut from in-app subscription purchases made within third-party AI apps, such as ChatGPT or Claude, and is on track to surpass $1 billion in third-party AI fee revenue this year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of AppMagic data. Meanwhile, then-CEO Tim Cook suggested in July that users could eventually pay for more powerful Siri AI models by way of upgraded iCloud+ subscriptions. In July, Apple said it reached 1.5 billion paid subscriptions across its platforms, including both first-party (like iCloud) and third-party (like Netflix) services. Monthly Bill+: Speaking of Apple services, the company on Friday announced an immediate price hike on Apple TV+, from $12.99 per month to $14.99 per month, and bundled service Apple One, $19.95 per month to $21.95 per month. Prepare yourself for the “lock-in, jack prices” Phase 3 of Apple’s AI long game. Written by Brian Boyle PRESENTED BY ART This Robot Turns 10 Square Feet Into 24/7 Restaurants Photo via ART In high-traffic venues like Boston’s Logan International Airport and corporate campuses for Disney and Tesla, a soon-to-be $61B market’s thriving. These locations discovered that with just an electrical outlet and 10 square feet, Automated Retail Technologies’ robotic kiosks can sell hot meals around-the-clock from peoples’ favorite brands. Featuring beloved items from big-name partners like White Castle, Nestlé, and more, ART’s tech serves customers in minutes. That’s why foodservice giants like Sysco, Aramark, Compass, and more partnered with them, too . They’ve already deployed 800+ kiosks. This latest partnership includes the purchase of 1,000 more. And long-time partner White Castle could roll out another 1,000 by themselves. With such a small footprint, America alone has 340,000+ target locations. And for a few more days, you can share in what ART’s building as an investor. ** INFLATION & PRICES Warsh’s “Quiet Fed” Approach Adds a Hawkish Call at Jackson Hole A hawkward silence fell upon Jackson Hole. While Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh continued advocating for a “quieter Fed” in his speech to the annual conference on Friday, he also gave the strongest signal yet that the central bank is ready to hike rates as inflation becomes, as he put it, “more concerning.” However, data waits for no man and a payrolls report due this week could complicate the short-term path to a hike. This is What it Sound
: Bitcoin holding the high-$70k zone as the market digests a new era of inflation and conflict. 🚨5 Key Levels During Bitcoin’s Quiet Stand in a Noisy Market : Bitcoin holding the high-$70k zone as the market digests a new era of inflation and conflict. Aug 31 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Bitcoin is holding the high-$70,000s after failing the first push through the 50-week average. The bid still looks more spot than leverage. Risk assets spent the weekend digesting a hawkish Warsh, then opened Monday into fresh U.S.–Iran fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The tension is no longer the speech. It is what the speech did to the rate path, plus oil jumping as Hormuz risk returned. Equities faded in the futures. Energy caught the bid. Crypto barely blinked while gold and duration did the opposite. Our desk still treats the tape as constructive underneath the noise, but the constraint has changed. Sticky inflation plus a hotter oil print is now the tax on risk. A quiet Gulf keeps the debasement bid alive. Another strike hits duration first. Here’s what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Is Bitcoin's surge past $78k a genuine bear-market exit or a bull trap? 🚀 Real macro regime shift 🧱 Rejection at $81.8k 🪤 Short-squeeze bull trap Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Litecoin(LTCUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – Render(RENDERUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #3 – Pengu(PENGUUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #4 – Dash(DASHUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #5 – Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL) 4-Hour Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. 50% off your first month, USE CODE: terminal ($100 off) Chart #1 – Litecoin(LTCUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Litecoin has pulled back to find support following a sharp impulse toward the $55.34 swing high, retracing to trade around $48.94 on the 1-day timeframe. Functioning as one of the earliest decentralized peer-to-peer proof-of-work cryptocurrencies designed for fast transaction confirmations, low fees, and optional privacy via Mimblewimble Extension Blocks (MWEB), this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $55.34 resistance target as long as the $43.09–$45.68 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $46 Stop Loss: $43 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $50 TP2: $55 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Render(RENDERUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Render has faced rejection after printing a lower high near the $1.480–$1.500 zone, breaking down below local consolidation to trade around $1.419 . Functioning as a leading decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) providing distributed GPU computing power for 3D rendering, visual effects, and artificial intelligence workloads, this short trade setup targets a deeper mean-reversion drop toward the liquidity pocket as long as overhead resistance holds below $1.450–$1.500. Trade Levels: Entry: $ 1.447 Stop Loss: $1.495 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.389 TP2: $1.324 Chart #3 – Pengu(PENGUUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) PENGU has faced continuous downward pressure after printing lower highs following its peak near $0.010600, breaking down below local support to trade around $0.008735. Functioning as the flagship ecosystem and community utility token representing the Pudgy Penguins Web3 IP, consumer merchandise brand, and gaming ecosystem, Trade Levels: Entry: $0.00901 Stop Loss: 0.00947 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.00840 TP2: $0.00764 Chart #4 – Dash(DASHUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Dash has stabilized above its newly established support shelf following a strong recovery off the $37.00–$38.00 base, holding higher lows to trade around $42.56 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as an open-source, peer-to-peer cryptocurrency optimized for fast, low-cost digital payments and decentralized masternode governance via InstantSend and CoinJoin privacy features, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion. Trade Levels: Entry: $41.5 Stop Loss: $39 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $46 TP2: $50 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) ( GOOGL refers to the stock of Alphabet Inc. and not a cryptocurrency.) Alphabet Inc. has established a multi-week consolidation base and printed a bullish bounce off the $342.72–$344.91 support shelf, trading around $346.74 on the 4-hour timeframe. Powered by dominant global digital search and advertising revenue, accelerating enterprise adoption of Google Cloud Platform (GCP), and extensive Gemini generative AI integration across consumer and enterprise software ecosystems, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $384.59 overhead resistance target as long as the $330.36–$342.72 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $343 Stop Loss: $330 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $360 TP2: $385 Banter’s Take Geopolitical tension and sticky inflation have reshaped the risk landscape, turning oil spikes and rate path uncertainty into the new headwinds. While gold and duration react sharply, crypto has shown surprising resilience, holding firm as spot demand continues to outweigh leverage. The key now is distinguishing between noise and the underlying constructive tape beneat
Synthetic share supply bypasses the market and print cycle-defining returns. Bitcoin Tests the Ceiling and Trenches Reignite Synthetic share supply bypasses the market and print cycle-defining returns. Aug 31 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors Bitcoin just printed its largest weekly dollar gain on record, then walked straight into the one level that has historically ended bear markets. Price tagged the mid-$81,000s, kissed the 50-week moving average, and failed to hold it. That is the whole tape in one sentence. The backdrop is not clean. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to put inflation first and forward guidance last. Markets heard tighter Fed policy, not easier money. Overnight, US–Iran strikes lifted oil prices and knocked equity futures lower. Geopolitical risk is back in the same week crypto market analysis is arguing the cycle has turned. And yet the trenches are loud again. On-chain data from Solana and Robinhood Chain shows daily token launches, DEX volume, and protocol revenue snapping back toward last year’s intensity. Altcoins are not waiting for a weekly close. Speculative capital is already treating tokenized equities and launchpad coins as the new tape. Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. The 50-Week Line Is the Whole Bitcoin Debate The 50-week moving average is not a measure of novelty. That’s important because in past bear markets that have ended, the first weekly close above the level has typically confirmed the low is in. Bitcoin traded as high as $81,265 this week before pulling back into the upper $77,000s. It is a test, not a confirmation. The dollar move that brought us here was historic. Bitcoin was $14,775 higher, a 23.5% week from Aug. 16 to Aug. 23. Only a handful of weeks in 2020 have been bigger than this in percentage terms. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. gained more than $1 billion through Thursday last week. That is real buying, not just short covering. The routine is wearing thin. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have both turned higher and are nearing a golden cross. In our research, we don’t treat the next cross as automatic upside. We see confirmation that the trend has stopped making lower lows. Macro trading still on top of the chart. The Fed’s main job at the moment is prices, Warsh said he would be “hard pressed” to say that financial conditions are restrictive. Prediction markets switched to a September hike. Bitcoin dipped following the speech but recovered later. That’s how this market is pricing in Fed policy. Oil prices and stocks matter because they determine the cost of capital. Weekend U.S.-Iran strikes and disruption to Hormuz sent crude higher, leaving Monday futures down. Energy names offered. High duration semiconductor stocks did not. A 50-week reclaim for Bitcoin gets tougher if oil stays bid and real yields hold firm. If the dollar and long yields ease, that same level becomes a springboard. Equities Meet Altcoins: Semiconductor Stocks and Tokenized Asset Squeezes A new primitive has given birth to the most lucrative structural trade on Robinhood Chain: memecoins directly paired against tokenised equity pools. Traders are skipping traditional broking hours to engage in the equities market via decentralised automated market makers. When capital flows into a stock paired meme pool, the routing contract is required to buy and lock the underlying tokenised equity. Speculative meme surges effectively corner the underlying share supply as on-chain equity floats are extremely thin. The mechanics were on full display over the weekend when meme token $BONER launched aggressively against tokenised Hims & Hers Health equity ($HIMS). Traders swapped capital into the pool and the liquidity contract swallowed up 12,284 HIMS shares. The $BONER pool secured 81% of the total circulating float, with an on-chain supply limit of 15,227 shares. Hence over the weekend on-chain $HIMS traded at $39.00 vs a Friday NYSE close of $28.84. That dynamic created a 37% premium over traditional equity valuations. A similar supply squeeze unfolded in AMC, with tokenised shares trading at an extreme 35x premium to spot equity prices due to on-chain liquidity dynamics. Now this mechanism is colliding head-on with mega-cap semi stocks. The Artificial Inu ($AI) ecosystem paired its token with tokenised NVIDIA ($NVDA). The AI liquidity pool and community vault snapped up 7,268 NVDA shares in no time. This memecoin snagged 17% of all tokenised NVIDIA on the Robinhood Chain. The liquidity vacuum that followed forced Robinhood to mint new NVDA tokens on-chain, with daily mint volume exceeding 10,000 shares ($2.5 million). If things stay the same, the $AI contract is gonna be one of the biggest on-chain holders of tokenised semiconductor shares. These reflexivity loops have generated parabolic runs across the ecosystem: $AI (Artificial Inu) surged over 6,400% to a $100.3 million market cap with $45.6 million in volume, climbing from micro-cap levels. $CASHCAT surged 511% over a 38-day stretch, reaching a $205 million market cap. MICRODUCK surged 11,548% to a peak of $19.4 million in less than 5 days. STONKBROKER printed a clean 35x rally off launch liquidity. $NASDANQ went right up to $4 mil market cap in 2 weeks. Retail traders have discovered that tokenised equities provide unlimited leverage possibilities not accessible through conventional financial means. Uniswap and Arbitrum Harvest Massive Protocol Revenue The big question for macro trading desks is where this speculative frenz
Plus: Bessent on finreg | Monday, August 31, 2026 Axios Macro By Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown · Aug 31, 2026 In Neil's many years attending the annual assemblage of central bankers in Jackson Hole, he has never heard the term "fiscal dominance" on so many lips. Today, we look at the emerging clash between the world's central banks and elected governments, which will define the path of inflation, interest rates and economic governance far into the future. 💸 Plus, Courtenay reports from the G20 summit in Asheville, North Carolina, including a hot-off-the-press exclusive on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's planned remarks on financial regulations. ⛰️ Today's newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Cane and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 1,105 words, a 4-minute read. 1 big thing: Two words that worry global central bankers the most Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios Around the world, what were once solid lines dividing the responsibilities of those in charge of fiscal policy and monetary policy are being challenged or redrawn. The big picture: If elected governments succeed in undermining their central banks' independence — pressuring them to suppress interest rates or monetize debt to bail out yawning public debt problems — it foretells a world of higher inflation and economic volatility. It was a challenge very much on the minds of the central bankers who assembled over the weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium — and underscored by recent news. Zoom out: Central bankers' great fear is that we're entering a new era of "fiscal dominance," in which the money supply is being managed not to achieve low and stable inflation, but to help elected politicians avoid hard choices around taxes and spending. It comes as inflation has already been elevated in much of the world for years and as longer-term interest rates are climbing. At the same time, elected governments are under intense political pressure not to enact the tax increases or public benefit cuts that would improve their debt outlooks. Driving the news: The Bank of Japan has been under intense pressure from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government to not raise interest rates despite accelerating inflation, while the Japanese finance ministry has worked with the U.S. Treasury on unusual interventions in currency markets to bolster the yen. Leftist French presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has proposed canceling debt held by the European Central Bank, essentially seeking to ease the nation's fiscal challenges by offloading the burden on the continent's monetary authority. And in the United States, President Trump has undertaken a renewed attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook , which, if successful, could also presage attempts to remove governors Michael Barr and Jerome Powell. In addition to Trump's longstanding attacks on the Fed, demanding lower interest rates, the Treasury has undertaken efforts to suppress long-term borrowing costs with a bond market intervention. What they're saying: "In the context of escalating fiscal pressures, central banks around the world may face pressures about risks of fiscal dominance," IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on a panel in Jackson Hole Friday. "Standing here in this legendary monetary policy setting—in this great state of rodeos where every license plate shows a cowboy on a bucking bronco—let me frame the answer in the following way," she said . "Central banks' most critical role is to ensure inflation remains low and stable. ... And that means no monetary policy cowboys riding to the fiscal rescue." Reality check: The efforts to undermine central bank independence have had only modest success so far. Most of the institutions have significant legal safeguards insulating them from political pressure. Friday morning, Fed chairman Kevin Warsh strongly suggested that interest rates are in play if the Fed does not gain confidence that inflation is coming down, contrary to the oft-stated desires of the president who nominated him just months ago. Yes, but: The underlying debt situation in the U.S. — annual deficits of 6% to 7% of GDP even amid full employment — means that any further rise in interest rates will only complicate the politics facing the Fed. And while the numbers and institutional details differ around the world, the basic story is the same across most major advanced economies. The bottom line: "If legislatures end up viewing central banks as a money pot, the risk is you end up compromising on monetary policy for the sake of fiscal authorities," Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England official, tells Axios. "If it's World War II or the Great Depression, that's fine," he adds. "But doing that in a more normal economic backdrop is dangerous." A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek inside the forces reshaping health care with Axios Future of Health Care 2. On the ground in Asheville Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking to reporters at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. Photo: Allison Joyce / AFP via Getty Images The globe's top economic policymakers gather in the mountains at a shaky period for the global economy, with the Iran conflict driving up energy prices, trade tensions running high and governments facing huge debt loads. Bessent's message to the world: The way through is stronger growth. What they're saying: Bessent pointed to the U.S. economy as a model, arguing that deregulation and policies aimed at boosting private-sector growth should be more broadly embraced by G20 nations. "The only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of it," Bessent told reporters today. "I'm confident that a lot of the leaders are very receptive to this." Between the lines: Bessent put growth at the center of the U.S. G20 agenda, calling for reducing regulation, addressing global trade imbalances and improving debt restructurin
But there’s one big blocker... 🥛 If BTC breaks this level, we’re so back 🤝 But there’s one big blocker... Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road, your trusty toolbox for building crypto know-how. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ If BTC breaks this level, we’re so back. 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: How Aerodrome Plans to Win the Race to Tokenize Everything . 🍪 Tom Lee: AI agents are already buying more tokens than humans. Nexo is a premier digital asset platform that helps clients build, manage, and preserve their wealth. Get started with Nexo today. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. IF BTC BREAKS THIS LEVEL, WE’RE SO BACK 🤝 Every Monday our team gets on a call to argue about the market - and as always, you get to listen in. Today, one number was the star of our conversation: $82K on the BTC chart. Get a weekly close above that level, and the bull market is back on. Fail to reclaim it on the weekly, and we could be looking at more near-term pain. Bitcoin teased us by running to roughly $81.4K last week, before pulling back to $77K - and now sits near $78K, with the daily candles compressing (which usually precedes a bigger move). 👇 Source: TradingView … but which way will this ‘bigger move’ go? If you’re hoping we move up, there are some hurdles you should be aware of. Between $81K and $83K there’s a pile-up of resistance - aka: levels where sellers keep showing up and dumping BTC. That’s also close to where the 50-week moving average (the average weekly close over the past year or so) sits at ~$81.5k. As John put it: Bitcoin has been range-bound since late January, and this rally is a failed attempt to climb back into that range from underneath. If that same green candle had pushed through to $82K and gone quiet above it, he'd have called the setup wildly bullish (as consolidating above support would indicate that we’re coiling for the next leg up). But because it stalled below resistance, it reads as a failed test. So we went looking for the floor… John has three levels mapped: $74K, $71K and $65K. His bids already sit at $71K, but it’s $74K that matters the most here - if we go below that, you're buying Bitcoin roughly below where it has averaged all year (aka: at a discount). Weirdly enough, the thing most likely to drag us down toward that level has nothing to do with crypto… ONE ACCOUNT FOR ALL YOUR CRYPTO NEEDS Crypto is still a weirdly fragmented experience. One app to buy. Another to earn yield. A third to borrow against your stack. But Nexo is now bringing it all under one roof: Trade, Earn, and Borrow. Nexo is a premier digital asset platform that helps clients build, manage, and preserve their wealth. Here's what makes them worth trusting: Official Crypto Partner of Tennis Australia First Digital Asset Partner of the Audi Revolut Formula 1 Team Operating since 2018 $7B+ in AUM SOC 2 & SOC 3 certified 24/7 client care Get started with Nexo today. IF BTC BREAKS THIS LEVEL, WE’RE SO BACK (P2) 🤝 John's biggest worry isn't on the BTC chart. It's the S&P 500, aka: one of the best gauges of how much risk investors are willing to hold. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday and Bitcoin dropped 2.5% on it. If stocks roll over, crypto usually goes with them. Markets are now near a coin flip on whether the Fed hikes rates in September. Before Warsh spoke, a rate hold was priced around 70%. John doesn't buy it though. His view is that Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have a plan, and that Warsh will hold (better for crypto) rather than hike rates (worse for crypto). The date to circle in bold red permanent marker is September 15. That’s when the Fed's two-day meeting opens and the Senate votes on whether to even start debating the CLARITY Act. Right now, CLARITY sits at a 14% chance of passing. Which (as John keeps reminding me) is bullish - in that, if it gets passed, it’s going to surprise the market and likely see an outsized bullish reaction. Source: Polymarket So with all of that, where does John stand, and what is he doing with his money right now? A weekly close above $82K for BTC and he deploys hard, possibly running his cash pile to zero. Below $70K and he does something similar off the assumption that the July 1st low of $57.7K won’t be broken, and the worst is behind us. Anywhere between, he’s mostly sitting on his hands. Or as he put it: you wait and make the market prove to you that it's out of this bear trend. Either by breaking resistance at $82k, or making a higher low (anywhere above $57.7K) before moving up again. Outside of that, he's nibbling at alts based on fundamentals rather than charts. I watched the dude place a trade on Uniswap at the breakfast table when we were on our retreat last week, and thought to myself: “If I had my cold wallet with me, I’d copy trade him right now. But it’s all good - he’s famously early to most trades. It can wait till I’m home.” Unfortunately for me, that thought was misguided. The mf’er is already up 15% on the trade - and that’s on top of the 30%+ gains he’s recently seen across his ETH , SOL , and SKY positions. (Lesson learned: listen to Mr. Gillen.) P.S. If you don’t want to miss John’s next pick - join Milk Road PRO for $1 . You’ll get his trades in real-time and avoid putting yourself in the position I am in right now. BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Tom Lee: AI agents are already buying more tokens than humans inside some models. Saylor: "We were very good at selling STRC at 100 and we’re very good at buying BTC, but now we’ve illustrated to the market that we can sell BTC and we can buy STRC." Novogratz: The U.S. debt situation, described with one word? 'Pray.' "Annualized interest just crossed $1T. The average coupon went from 2% to 3.3% in 3 years." Get started with Nexo today. RATE TODAY’S EDITION What'd you think of today's edition? 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 F**king great 🥛🥛🥛 Meh, do better 🥛 You didn't bring the heat MILKY MEMES 🤣 Source: @naiivememe Source: @naiivememe ROADIE REVIEW OF
Plus: Lilly padding 💊 | Monday, August 31, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Aug 31, 2026 Monday ✅. Today's newsletter is 777 words, a 3-minute read. 📉 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%. 🔥 Today's stock spotlight: Strategy (+4.4%) disclosed its first bitcoin purchases since late June. The bitcoin treasury giant's shares are down over 61% over the last 12 months, as the value of the world's oldest cryptocurrency plummeted from its October all-time high. 1 big thing: Ad rush By Sara Fischer Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg via Getty Images OpenAI said today that its nascent ad business has reached a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate less than 200 days after launch. Why it matters: Advertising revenue is critical to supporting access to free generative AI services. This is especially true for AI companies like OpenAI that are looking to go public in the coming months. 🌎 Zoom in: In a blog post , OpenAI said "tens of thousands of advertisers" now use ChatGPT Ads, which is available in more than 40 countries. The majority of those campaigns include cost-per-click and outcome-optimized bidding, it said, a testament to its ability to build a self-serve ad platform for performance advertising. Between the lines: Self-serve platforms require technical expertise and upfront investment, but when built correctly, they empower tech firms to build scaled ad platforms that can reach a broader swath of advertisers. OpenAI opened up its self-serve ads manager in May. It now says small and medium-sized businesses represent "a material share of the business." 🏃 The big picture: Generative AI search ad revenue is the fastest-growing ad format in history, per WPP Media. WPP Media projects generative AI ads will reach $100 billion globally by 2030. Much of that spend is expected to go to OpenAI, as well as Google. 🔭 What we're watching: OpenAI has told investors that it expects to generate $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030, according to a source familiar with recent presentations to investors, Axios' Ina Fried reported . 2. Lilly padding Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios GLP-1 drugs sent Eli Lilly into the pharmaceutical stratosphere — and now it's using its stockpile of cash to diversify its portfolio, Nathan writes with Axios Pro's Claire Rychlewski . Follow the money: Lilly today announced plans to acquire Merida Biosciences for up to $2.88 billion. It's the latest in a series of acquisitions, including its $7 billion purchase of cancer biotech firm Kelonia and its $2.4 billion deal for Orna , a cell therapy biotech. Year to date, Lilly has announced a dozen deals totaling around $30 billion in potential value. Zoom in: The company has committed up to roughly $12 billion on its immunology pipeline alone since 2023. Merida's lead drug candidate would treat Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. "We see this acquisition as further evidence of mgmt's intent to diversify LLY's pipeline beyond obesity," Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger writes in a research note. 💭 Nathan's thought bubble: Don't take this as a sign that the GLP-1 boom is slowing down. It's just beginning. 3. Other happenings Photo Illustration: Scott Olson/Getty Images 🚫 Kalshi said it would impose a lifetime ban (the prediction market's first) and a $71,356 penalty on former Republican Rep. George Santos for allegations he profited from bets on his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address. ( CNBC ) ⛳️ LIV Golf has reportedly offered a settlement to players worth pennies on the dollar for their contracts ahead of a potential bankruptcy filing. ( FT ) ⚖️ The FTC is poised to sue Amazon, alleging the company manipulated prices that merchants pay for ads on the e-commerce platform. ( Axios ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Sports media's next big opportunity Sports rights are becoming an even more valuable media asset. Rising rights fees, streaming ad demand and growing interest in women's sports are creating new upside well beyond ticket sales. The latest Media Trends Executive analysis examines how sports are reshaping the media business — and where the biggest opportunities are emerging. Read the full analysis. 4. 🍏 5,486 days of Cook Apple CEO Tim Cook. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Tim Cook isn't exactly pulling the plug on his Apple tenure — but today is his last day as CEO after 15 years on the job. Cook recently announced plans to step down as CEO and become executive chair — with senior VP of hardware engineering John Ternus taking the top job beginning Tuesday. State of play: During Cook's tenure, Apple shareholders enjoyed gains of more than 2,500%, multiple stock splits and a long stretch as the world's most valuable company, according to Freedom Capital Markets. The tech giant added the Apple Watch, AirPods and TV products during his reign, while it dramatically expanded its services arm. Yes, but: Cook leaves amid questions over whether Apple is falling behind in the AI race. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Sports media's next big opportunity Sports rights are becoming an even more valuable media asset. Rising rights fees, streaming ad demand and growing interest in women's sports are creating new upside well beyond ticket sales. The latest Media Trends Executive analysis examines how sports are reshaping the media business — and where the biggest opportunities are emerging. Read the full analysis. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Get started today . Follow Axios across:
The Supreme Court might soon have to decide Byron Gilliam “A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” — Juliet Capulet, Romeo and Juliet Is a bet by any other name still a bet? A panel of Ninth Circuit judges on Friday ruled 3-0 that Kalshi’s event contracts related to sports are a form of sports betting. This seems self-evidently true. What is buying an event contract on, say, how many points will be scored in a football game if not betting? Even Kalshi seems to think so: The above post from its Facebook account is cited in the very first sentence of the Ninth Circuit’s ruling in favor of the state of Nevada: “ KalshiEX, LLC advertises itself as ‘the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states’,” Judge Ryan Nelson wrote. If there were ever an opportunity for a one-sentence legal opinion, that would seem to be it. Sports betting is regulated by the states and Kalshi says it offers sports betting in all 50 of them. Therefore, Nevada — being a state — can regulate Kalshi. Case closed! Just kidding. There is far too much at stake — for both sides — for that to be the final word. If Kalshi were to concede that its sport-related event contracts are a form of betting, it would have to obtain licences to offer them in each state, comply with state-by-state rules, and pay state taxes and fees. It would also have to cease offering its services in the 20 states where online sports betting remains illegal. This represents an existential risk to Kalshi: Sports has accounted for 72% of its business so far. The stakes are not much lower for the state of Nevada, which has no individual or corporate income tax: Taxes and fees on gambling account for roughly 17% of the state’s revenue. The broader hotel-casino industry is estimated to account for as much as 37%. The average temperature in Las Vegas for the month of July is 107 degrees Fahrenheit, which no one is going to put up with if they also have to pay income taxes. So there’s a lot riding on whether sports betting on prediction markets, as the Ninth Circuit ruled, is simply sports betting. As tautological as that sounds, the Third Circuit disagrees. In April, the Third Circuit (which meets much further away from Nevada) agreed with Kalshi’s reasoning that its event contracts are “swaps” — a kind of financial derivative regulated only by the CFTC. The Commodity Exchange Act defines a swap as “any agreement, contract, or transaction…dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” Like the winner of a game, for example: The Seahawks winning the Super Bowl is an event that occurred, Kalshi says. Or a point spread. The Seahawks winning the Super Bowl by 15 is “the extent of the occurrence of an event.” Therefore, Kalshi argued, event contracts on what happens in sporting events are swaps and rightly regulated by the CFTC. The Ninth Circuit said this defies common sense. In ordinary usage, Judge Nelson wrote the Super Bowl itself is an “event.” The Seahawks winning is the “outcome” of the event. (The Seahawks winning by 15 is an additional outcome.) A contract tied to the outcome of an event is simply a bet, the court ruled, whatever you choose to call it. “The substance of the sports event contracts offered on Kalshi’s DCM is sports gambling, regardless of whether Kalshi calls them swaps,” Nelson wrote (invoking Shakespeare’s rose). Actual swaps have a function beyond gambling: They hedge exposure to events that have real-world financial consequences — interest rates going up, say, or stocks going down. Kalshi’s event contracts, by contrast, “do not help institutions or investors hedge against risk,” Nelson wrote. Instead, “they create risk, largely for ordinary consumers, where none previously existed.” Creating risk where none previously existed is the definition of gambling — and what separates it from investing, insurance, or hedging. Kalshi notes that sports outcomes do have economic consequences beyond speculation. Like a soccer team betting against itself to hedge the financial risk of relegation, and a bar betting on the Knicks to hedge the risk of a drinks promotion. I can imagine a few others, like a hotel hedging the risk that a local team fails to advance in the playoffs. But no business has a natural financial exposure to a team winning a game by 15 points instead of 10, for example. Or whether Taylor Swift will be in attendance. Or how long the national anthem will be. Should Kalshi appeal the Ninth Circuit’s ruling, then, my guess is it’ll have to base its defense on how to parse the exact wording of the Commodity Exchange Act. If so, some of the world’s most important jurists might soon be litigating the difference between “outcome” and “event.” Polymarket odds suggest there’s a 52% chance that it happens by the end of the year. Now that is a swap. (Kalshi doesn’t offer it.) — Byron Gilliam Brought to you by: Avalanche Summit NYC returns September 16–17, bringing together the institutions, enterprises, investors, and builders turning blockchain technology into real business outcomes. From tokenized markets and institutional finance to payments and consumer applications, the Summit will explore how production-ready infrastructure is enabling faster settlement, lower costs, and entirely new products and revenue streams. Use promo code BLOCKWORKS15 for 15% off! 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Messy quarter but AI thesis is completely intact. Why Melvin holds IREN after its 50% drop from peak Messy quarter but AI thesis is completely intact. Archie Keshan GM. This is Milk Road Stocks, where sometimes the best trade starts with a question in Discord. Today, we're talking about IREN. The stock took a beating after earnings so is this a buying opportunity… or is something actually wrong? First, a quick detour to private markets. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. SHOULD YOU BUY IREN AFTER FALLING 13%? While scrolling through our PRO Discord community today, there was one point of discussion that caught my attention. Source: Milk Road PRO The reason IREN dropped so hard was its latest earnings report. The main point of worry was that Adjusted EBITDA collapsed from $59.5M last quarter to $19.2M. Source: Google In fact, IREN’s last peak came at $70 in the first week of June. Since then, the stock has fallen 50%. So naturally, the big question is: Should you be buying IREN at these prices? Melvin (our lead portfolio analyst at Milk Road PRO) still remains bullish on IREN. The main reason for the weak quarter is that IREN is in the middle of a messy transition. It's shutting down Bitcoin mining capacity faster than its new AI infrastructure can start generating revenue: AI Cloud revenue jumped 110%. While Bitcoin mining revenue dropped 40%. Their AI division now makes up 50%+ of quarterly revenue. So why shut down a profitable Bitcoin mining business? Margins. AI Cloud generated $70.5M in revenue from just $9.2M in direct costs, giving it an 87% direct gross margin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining runs closer to 64%. In other words, the same megawatt of power makes IREN significantly more money when it's used for AI instead of Bitcoin mining. And the AI business is already starting to show real traction: $1B of AI Cloud ARR operating today. $4B of contracted ARR tied to its 2026 capacity. Customers include Microsoft, NVIDIA, Cohere, Perplexity, Figure AI, and several others. Melvin's view on IREN going into the next quarter is clear. He remains bullish on IREN but sizes it as a smaller and higher-risk position than Nebius. His view is that panic-selling now would mean locking in a loss while the underlying AI thesis is still intact. For now, his plan is: hold, watch the delivery schedule closely and wait for the AI revenue to show up. While IREN did have a messy quarter, they seem to be heading in the right direction. ASK OUR ANALYSTS WHATEVER YOU WANT 🗣️ This edition actually started with a conversation inside the Milk Road PRO Discord . And that’s one of the biggest benefits of being inside PRO. You can ask our analysts questions directly. John, Martin, Kyle, Vincen, and Melvin all have different portfolios, different strategies and often very different views on the same asset. So instead of getting one opinion, you can hear multiple perspectives from people who are actively managing portfolios themselves. And the Discord is just one part of PRO. You also get access to all 5 analyst portfolios, so you can see exactly: What they're buying. What they're selling. What they're holding. And, most importantly, why. If you want to see how our analysts are positioning their portfolios and get their takes as the market moves, try Milk Road PRO for $1 for 7 days . And if it’s not for you, you can always cancel. Try Milk Road PRO for $1 FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can access get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road Stocks 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada