And do it BEFORE quantum?? 🥛 Could AI crack your wallet? 🔐 And do it BEFORE quantum?? Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that’s like noise-cancelling headphones for market fears. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ Could AI crack your wallet? 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitwise Says Near Could 30x - And That's Just the Base Case . 🍪 Moody's just gave Sky Ecosystem a B3 rating. Nexo is a premier digital asset platform that helps clients build, manage, and preserve their wealth. Get started with Nexo today. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. "BUNKER MODE": COULD AI CRACK YOUR WALLET BEFORE QUANTUM DOES? 🔐 On Wednesday, Justin Drake (a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation) asked the whole crypto industry to start planning for something he calls "bunker mode." His worry is that AI could break the security protecting Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets, and in the worst case, "in months not years." Every wallet has a private key (your password) and a public key (created from that password, and safe to show the world). The system tying them together is called ECDSA, and it works because nobody has the compute power to run the process backwards and get your private key from your public one. Crypto's long-running fear has been Q-Day, the day quantum computers get strong enough to do exactly that. Drake thinks AI might get there first, and do so using current compute hardware. By "break," he means recovering a private key in about a week using hardware that exists today, like a big cluster of GPUs (the chips that train AI models). His fear comes from how fast AI research is moving. In August, an internal version of OpenAI's next model solved or advanced ten long-standing open problems, including one in cryptography, for about $2,000 of computing power. The coins in the firing zone are the ones whose public key is already visible, which happens the first time you send from an address. Source: Glassnode Glassnode counts 6.04M BTC (~30% of all issued bitcoin) with public keys already visible. About 1.9M of that is exposed by design, mostly the oldest coins from Bitcoin's early days (Satoshi's included). The other 4.1M got exposed by habit, through reused addresses. Drake's fix is a calm, gradual migration of funds to fresh addresses that have never revealed their public key, with the most sophisticated holders moving first. Not everyone bought it though - and one of Bitcoin's best-known cryptographers needed just two words to respond… ONE ACCOUNT FOR ALL YOUR CRYPTO NEEDS Crypto is still a weirdly fragmented experience. One app to buy. Another to earn yield. A third to borrow against your stack. But Nexo is now bringing it all under one roof: Trade, Earn, and Borrow. Nexo is a premier digital asset platform that helps clients build, manage, and preserve their wealth. Here's what makes them worth trusting: Official Crypto Partner of Tennis Australia First Digital Asset Partner of the Audi Revolut Formula 1 Team Operating since 2018 $7B+ in AUM SOC 2 & SOC 3 certified 24/7 client care Get started with Nexo today. "BUNKER MODE": COULD AI CRACK YOUR WALLET BEFORE QUANTUM DOES? (P2) 🔐 "Fud-burger." That was Adam Back (CEO of Blockstream), who has clashed with Drake over Bitcoin's design before. Vitalik landed somewhere in the middle. He agreed the risk from AI is real, but he told holders not to scramble to move their funds today. He also warned that the "lattice" cryptography the industry has been counting on as its quantum-proof backup could take serious hits from the next two years of AI progress. Either way, a big chunk of the exposed bitcoin isn't sitting in personal wallets. 👇 Source: Glassnode Exchanges alone account for ~1.6M exposed BTC, because they reuse addresses as deposits and withdrawals flow in and out. (Glassnode stresses it isn't a safety ranking, and any custodian can fix it by moving to fresh addresses.) The coins nobody can fix are the old ones whose owners are gone, Satoshi's included, because moving a coin requires the private key. Bitcoin's main answer for those is BIP-361 (a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal from developer Jameson Lopp), which would eventually freeze coins left in vulnerable addresses. It's still a draft, and its clock runs about five years from when a quantum-safe address type goes live. That timeline was built for quantum computers, while Drake's worst case is measured in months. Ethereum has a dedicated post-quantum team, and Drake says he'll push to speed up its move to hash-based cryptography (a style already considered safe against quantum attacks). From where I’m standing: this is a fire drill. Nobody has shown an actual attack, and the fix for regular holders is cheap: stop reusing addresses, and keep long-term coins somewhere you've never sent from. John told PRO members to do exactly this, if they were worried, back in August. In his plain-English quantum explainer, he said to send your coins to a wallet you've never sent crypto out of, and then just leave them there. His summary for anyone panicking: "The nerds will handle this, I promise you." P.S. If you want our analysts' takes before the panic hits your feed, try Milk Road PRO for $1 for 7 days. CALLING ALL CRYPTO NERDS 🥛 If you wake up and check Bitcoin before the weather, spend too much time on Crypto Twitter, and can actually write, we might have a job for you. Milk Road is looking for a crypto-focused writer/content creator to join the team. Come be bullish with us BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Bitcoin miners made money by owning the machines. What if you could do the same with AI? B3 Labs lets investors own Nvidia GPUs and get paid when AI labs use the compute.* Tom Lee says BMNR will stop buying ETH once its treasury hits 5% of circulating supply, a hard cap set at Token2049. Moody's just gave Sky Ecosystem a B3 rating , the first time a major agency has rated a stablecoin protocol. NEAR flipped XLM to crack the top 20 after an 8.7% surge, fueled by real growth in

Markets are feeling crowded Byron Gilliam “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” — Everett Dirksen (attributed) Friday charts SpaceX is in talks to borrow $40 billion from banks and asset managers to finance its next giant purchase of NVIDIA GPUs. Not to be outdone, Broadcom is seeking to borrow as much as $100 billion. The money would fund a special-purpose vehicle to buy Broadcom chips and lease them to Anthropic and OpenAI. Oracle is also said to be asking to borrow billions — from that same group of lenders, for partly the same customers, and mostly the same purpose (buying more chips). All told, AI-related borrowing is forecast to hit $570 billion this year. The dramatic rise in bond yields over the past month suggests this is testing the outer limits of the bond market. “The AI boom is the main cause of soaring long-term interest rates,” Paul Krugman says . The boom is testing the limits of equity investors, too. OpenAI is reportedly hoping to raise another $30 billion in equity capital, despite having raised $122 billion six months ago . Anthropic is expected to ask investors for $100 billion in their IPO as soon as next month. It won’t be the last time they ask. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI infrastructure will require $1.5 trillion in external financing by 2028. (Fun fact: 2028 is just 14 months away!) With luck, the giant investment in AI will usher in an age of abundance, in which our material needs are easily met and work is optional because super-intelligent robots do everything for us. In the meantime, though, we live in a world of scarcity. “All that money going into construction of data centers and purchasing foreign-produced semiconductors comes at the expense of investment in everything else,” Krugman says. “The AI boom is crowding out everything.” This is new. Historically, the concern has been that government borrowing crowds out private-sector investment. Now, it’s almost the opposite: private-sector investment in AI is making it harder for the government to borrow. Over the past 12 months, hyperscaler borrowing has equaled an incredible 14.1% of new Treasury borrowing. That’s up from 0% as recently as two years ago. That won’t stop the government from borrowing, of course. They’ll just have to pay more for it and run bigger deficits. But it will stop a lot of other borrowing. And slow the rest of the economy. Until now, the investing debate around AI has been about how much abundant intelligence could grow the economy and how far it might make the stock market go up. Now, investors are asking how much it could shrink the non-AI economy and how far it could make the non-AI stock market go down. Let’s see if a few charts can help us figure it out. Crowded construction: Construction of data centers is driving up interest rates, wages, and input costs, making construction of anything else much less economic. The input costs: In the long run, AI should be disinflationary. But not until all the data centers are built. AI is making it harder to move: With US 30-year mortgage rates up to 7.3%, almost everyone who wants to sell one house to buy another will have to refinance at a higher rate. Market cap is crowded at the top: The top five stocks in the S&P 500 are worth the same as the bottom 434 stocks. A record. Earnings are crowded at the top, too: Just two firms, Micron and NVIDIA, are expected to account for one-third of the S&P 500 earnings in 2026. Amazing. The Last of Us: Once Anthropic and OpenAI have IPO’d, Berkshire Hathaway will be the last remaining non-tech stock in the top 15 of the S&P 500. 2028: Coatue estimates that in 2028 AI capex will be 50% bigger than US single-family mortgages and nearly three times the national defense budget. You have to choose, apparently: Since the launch of ChatGPT, tech spending in the US has been a mirror image of non-tech spending. Crowding-in: Paul Krugman notes that the current dynamic of AI crowding out non-AI investment is the opposite of what happened in the dotcom boom. “During the 90s boom America attracted very large inflows of investment from abroad, which effectively financed the tech boom even as other investment rose.” Historic times: As a percentage of GDP, the investment in AI is expected to be the largest ever: more than three times bigger than building the highway system and seven times bigger than electrification. Let’s hope it’s that much more productive, too. Have an uncrowded weekend, non-AI readers. — Byron Gilliam Brought to you by: Meridian 2026 is Stellar's annual gathering for the institutions, fintechs, and developers putting financial infrastructure onchain. Join them October 28-29 at Convento do Beato in Lisbon for two days on tokenization, payments, and what it takes to run them in production. Register today with Blockworks10 for 10% off. Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 Blockworks 133 W 19TH ST New York, New York 10011, United States

Plus: 💰Delta's fuel bill | Friday, October 09, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Oct 09, 2026 Friday ✅. Today's newsletter is 829 words, a 3-minute read. 📈 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.6%. The index finished up 1.2% for the week, and it's up 14.1% on the year. 🥶 Today's stock spotlight: U.S. telecoms ( see below 👇). 1 big thing: SpaceX's telecom punch Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Stock: Getty Images SpaceX's plan to compete with the major cellphone service providers is coming into sharper focus — and raising investor concerns about the threat it poses to traditional telecoms. Driving the news: Shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile plunged today after SpaceX announced a deal to acquire a swath of nationwide low-band spectrum from a private investment firm. Buying these licenses allows SpaceX's Starlink satellite business to begin reaching areas for mobile service that satellite currently struggles to reach, like the inside of buildings, Axios Pro's Lucinda Shen reports . The big picture: SpaceX will need a lot more than spectrum to begin offering viable cellphone services in most major American cities. Spectrum is basically the airwaves that carry wireless signals. But you still need physical infrastructure to transmit and receive those signals to provide wireless coverage. Friction point: SpaceX has a plan for that, but it's not to spend massive amounts of money building traditional cell towers. AT&T CEO John Stankey told Axios last week that SpaceX's plan — to install small cellular base stations alongside Starlink dishes on homes and businesses — would not be enough to become a serious competitor. The other major telecom companies, including Verizon and T-Mobile, have also downplayed a threat from Starlink. 📉 Shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile closed down 9.8%, 8.8% and 13.3%, respectively, today in the first trading day after the spectrum acquisition. What's next: SpaceX officials have said they plan to launch their cellphone service business in late 2027. Go deeper 2. Delta's fuel bill ticks up $6 billion Data: Energy Information Administration; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips Soaring jet fuel prices are expected to add $6 billion to Delta Air Lines' fuel bill this year, the company said this morning, Axios' Pete Gannon writes . That would be a 60% jump from last year. ⛽️ State of play: Delta's all-in fuel costs averaged $3.61 a gallon in the recent quarter, after pricing in a benefit from the company's own refinery. (Yes, the airline owns a refinery .) It expects to pay $4.25 per gallon in the fourth quarter, despite an even larger refinery benefit in the period. Bloomberg reported today that general jet fuel prices in New York and Los Angeles were both over $4.90 a gallon, the highest mark since March and April, respectively. 💸 The impact: U.S. airfares were up over 23% in August from a year earlier, according to the latest federal inflation data, as airlines passed soaring fuel costs along to travelers. 🗣️ Go deeper: Delta CEO Ed Bastian told investors this morning that he does believe fuel prices will come down, though he's not sure when. The structural changes in the industry, however — higher fares and reduced routes — may not reverse with them. Read more 3. Other happenings Photo: Jim Watson, Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images 🇷🇺 President Trump said that he reached a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to the global market. ( Axios ) 🛞 Tesla, under pressure from German regulators, changed the brand name in Europe for its "Full Self-Driving (Supervised)," or FSD, systems to "Assisted Driving." ( CNBC ) 🗣️ What they're saying "We appreciate and respect Mike Repole's vision, passion and optimism for the future of horse racing, and we welcome his significant investment in Churchill Downs Inc." — Churchill Downs, in an emailed statement to Bloomberg , on the billionaire's acquisition of 1 million shares of the horse racing and gaming company. Repole has long called for reforms in the sport over what he calls mismanagement and conflicts of interest. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS See what's next for media in 2027 Media Trends Executive Annual members receive the 2026 Annual Report, our special media document featuring global forecasts, sector analysis and exclusive media data insights. 🔒 Get the report by becoming a Media Trends Executive member. 4. 🍷 A vintage heist Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios Italian wineries will be locking their doors tonight, Pete writes . 🍷 A team of thieves managed to make off with 30,000 bottles of wine from the warehouse of Marchesi Antinori, a family-owned winery in Cortona, according to reports. 💰 The haul is worth around $5.5 million. Zoom in: The heist was reportedly carried out last weekend out by a gang of at least seven masked individuals, who cut off surveillance cameras and used the company's own forklifts to load two large trucks. The winery's insurance policy only covers small thefts, so it's on the hook for about 90% of the loss, NYT reports. But they're holding out hope. 🚛 "Two trucks full of merchandise can't just disappear into thin air," Renzo Cotarella, the winery's chief executive told The Guardian . "The Tuscan roads are full of cameras. Perhaps with a bit of luck we'll be able to recover at least some of the bottles." A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Simplify how you manage Simplify for Management is a bootcamp on time, talent, feedback, and communication, built specifically for people managers. Managers work through it together and leave with their own custom AI tool built for how they lead. Learn more about Simplify for Management Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Get started today . Follow Axios across:

Plus: Green card blues | Friday, October 09, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Oct 09, 2026 🎉 Happy Friday! This morning, oil prices have edged back from their highs after President Trump said there wouldn't be attacks on Iran until after the midterm elections. And U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive open even as the AI trade wobbled yesterday on new details about OpenAI's revenue. Below, you'll find Matt musing on the implications of the breakneck growth of all things related to AI compared with, well, just about everything else. What does it mean? Growing concentration risks. Emily dives into the latest immigration restrictions the White House slapped on Microsoft and other tech companies. 🗓️ Quick programming note: We'll be off on Monday and back in your inbox Tuesday. 🎤 You know what to do; just bust a move. In 855 words, a 3-minute read. 1 big thing: The AI-versus-everything-else economy By Matt Phillips Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips; Note: Data center construction costs include labor, materials, profits of contractors, architectural and engineering work, miscellaneous overhead, interest and taxes. Does not include servers, racks, chips or memory. More and more, it seems as if there's the AI economy — and everything else. Why it matters: The growing chasm between the breakneck growth of the AI world and the slower pace of the economy where most Americans work and live has huge implications, especially for the markets. Zoom in: The most recent numbers on U.S. construction spending through August — shown above — paint the picture remarkably clearly. Zoom out: The same divide is an important theme in the markets as well. In corporate bonds, AI-related offerings accounted for more than half of net investment grade issuance for the year through the end of August, according to data from Apollo and Bloomberg. Data: Apollo, Bloomberg; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips And of course, excitement over all things related to AI has supercharged the market values of Nvidia, the hyperscalers and other AI-related tech stocks. Stunning stat: The weighting of the S&P 500 technology sector in terms of market capitalization is now roughly 40%. That's higher than during the peak of the dot-com bubble. But that actually underplays the impact of AI. If you throw in the hyperscalers Meta and Amazon, which S&P doesn't include in the tech sector, the share of the AI-pilled part of the blue-chip index climbs closer to 50%. Data: FactSet, Axios; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips The bottom line: The growth gap between AI and everything else means the U.S. economy and the markets are increasingly yoked to AI — and all the risks that come with it. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less With AI upending work and life, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz, the bestselling authors of "Smart Brevity" offer a one-stop survival guide to dramatically improving your life, work and happiness. The idea: Toxic complexity clogs our inboxes and calendars. We can do more, but first we need to simplify. Get your copy. 2. Immigration split screen By Emily Peck Satya Nadella receiving the National Medal of Technology and Innovation from President Trump; Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images The Trump administration said yesterday that it was suspending Microsoft from a key program used to sponsor employees for green cards. Later in the afternoon, the administration honored the tech giant's CEO with a medal for innovation. Why it matters: The split-screen day highlights the tension between the administration's championing of Big Tech and its immigration policies, which constrain an industry that has long relied on hiring foreign-born workers. Tech leaders have said that restrictions on hiring hamper the country's ability to compete — especially at a moment when the U.S. is in a race with China on AI. Driving the news: The administration's move yesterday also targeted Adobe and six IT services firms over the Permanent Employment Program. It's typically the first major government approval step in employers sponsoring workers, often H-1B holders, for employment-based green cards . The administration accused these companies of hiring foreign workers and paying them less, at U.S. workers' expense. State of play: Trump awarded Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella with the National Medal of Technology and Innovation at the White House's New Golden Age Summit last night. Elon Musk, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Google co-founder Sergey Brin and CEO of AMD Lisa Su — like Nadella, all immigrants to the U.S. — were awarded the National Medal of Science. At the event, Trump called the honorees " national treasures ." What they're saying: Vice President Vance addressed the apparent contradiction at a press conference earlier yesterday, saying: "Our message to Microsoft is not that we want to harm your company; it's that we want your company to thrive, but we want it to thrive by employing and empowering your fellow Americans." The other side: Microsoft said in a statement that 80% of the applications it submitted in the last fiscal year were to extend or change the status of existing employees — not to hire new people. "We pay our employees some of the highest compensation in the tech sector, and our wages are among the highest of all H-1B filings." Zoom in: The application for a green card can already take years for some workers. Many are long-time trusted employees inside those companies. What to watch: Lawyers say the move could make companies more reluctant to sponsor workers for visas and permanent residency. And it could turn off talented foreign workers and students from coming to the U.S. Catch up quick: This isn't the administration's first effort on the H-1B labor force. In September 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas. Roughly five months later, just 85 people had paid the fee, according to a court filing. Numerous federal jud

Plus: Palantir is a hit with nations demanding firewalls for their AI. October 9, 2026 Good morning and happy Friday. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol is ordering a venti -sized acquisition, with a side of extra guac. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the ubiquitous coffee chain has been working with advisors in recent months to stir up a takeover proposal for Chipotle, the company Niccol previously ran before joining Starbucks in 2024. Such an acquisition would mark the largest restaurant buyout in history, by far. Chipotle’s market cap stands at around $41 billion, easily eclipsing the roughly $11.4 billion held by Tim Hortons when Burger King acquired it in 2014. How Starbucks, a coffee chain, will find synergies with Chipotle’s burrito bowl business is a bit lost on us, but we’ll leave that up to the bean counters. MARKETS S&P 500 7,765.36 ▼ -0.47% DJI 51,231.64 ▲ +0.10% PLTR $198.78 ▲ +2.40% Stock data as of market close on October 8, 2026. INFLATION & PRICES Consumer Sentiment in the Spotlight as Michigan Survey Set for Release Photo by Zion C via Unsplash The University of Michigan will publish the October preliminary results of its widely followed consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 a.m. EDT this morning. After September’s final reading of 48.1 proved the second-lowest ever, the consensus mood forecast is sort of like a playlist of Lana Del Rey and Morrissey songs. But new sales figures from Costco and a more specific survey of consumers’ personal well-being are singing a happier tune. Kirkland-Sized Pantry Food for a K-Shaped Economy Household spending rose 6.1% year over year in August, and growth has mostly accelerated since falling to 4.3% in December 2025, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Considering that consumer spending is more than two-thirds of the US economy, you won’t need to consult the works of Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman to appreciate why the bureau revised its reading of second-quarter GDP growth to 2.2% from 1.5%. The evidence is piling up. Costco reported Wednesday that comparable US sales, factoring out gas prices, rose at an annualized 8% pace in September, compared to 5% one year ago. It marked a step up from July and August, when comparable US sales grew just 6.6% and 5.4%, respectively, after reaching nearly 9% in the late spring . Net sales in September rose 13% to $30 billion. Costco, the nation’s third-largest retailer after Walmart and Amazon, is considered a bellwether for middle-income consumers and suburban bulk buyers. Spending has also kept up at Walmart, which reported better than expected 5.9% revenue growth to $187.9 billion in the second quarter, representing lower-income spending. One key factor sustaining consumers got a boost Thursday. The Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims fell 2,000 to 197,000 last week, keeping them near the lowest levels in half a century. “Job growth is trending above the pace needed to keep up with new entrants to the workforce,” said Bill Adams, the chief economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. “If current trends hold, the unemployment rate should reverse September’s increase and edge lower in coming months.” Of course, all is not rosy — wage gains have been outpaced by inflation, leaving Americans with less room to save — but a stable labor market has provided income to spend. Meanwhile, some consumers have grown more optimistic: Deloitte said this week that its survey of consumers’ financial well-being held at 103.4 in August, eight points above where it was last year. Its index more narrowly tracks Americans’ feelings about their personal financial health and security than the Michigan Survey, which includes questions about the broader economy. Respondents told Deloitte they intend to spend more on both discretionary and nondiscretionary items, although naturally they expect prices to keep rising. Snacking Slowdown: Not all US consumer sales are equal. While PepsiCo reported third-quarter net revenue rose 5.6% on Thursday, the company’s international business drove growth. Pepsi’s North American food volumes were flat, and its beverage volumes fell 2%. Time to patent ingestible GLP-1 Diet Mountain Dew. Written by Sean Craig ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Palantir’s Poised to Win in the Sovereign AI Era, Goldman Says Photo via Andrew Leyden/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom The best defense is a good offense. That plus sovereign AI. The latter point is why Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges slapped defense tech firm Palantir with an upgrade on Thursday, changing the stock’s rating to buy from neutral with a price target of $230 per share. Borges’s thesis? In an increasingly hostile and unwieldy digital world, governments and enterprises demand bespoke, localized AI systems (a.k.a., sovereign AI), and Palantir is well suited to meet that demand. Many Models to Rule Them All … Frontier labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic may be offering the most powerful and cutting-edge AI tools on the planet, but they’re a bit too squishy when it comes to storing, and possibly accessing, critical customer data. The dynamic is increasingly making their platforms a no-go for governments and major businesses, who have plenty of reasons to prioritize privacy. In fact, according to a recent report by The Information , Palantir is one of several major companies, including Nvidia and Booz Allen Hamilton, that is threatening to cease business with the frontier firms until it can receive guarantees that its data and intellectual property are not being misused. Moving off the cloud and into local sovereign AI systems is one way around the problem, and Palantir, despite deriving its name from the magical seeing stones featured in “The Lord of the Rings,” is a little more privacy oriented. Borges says the market for bespoke software may outgrow packaged software in the upcoming years and that Palantir is poised to reap the rewards: “We believe enterprises are in the early stages of applying AI to their proprietary data

Political promises ruled out immediate strikes before November Triple-Digit Oil Breaks Through Washington’s Ceasefire as Persian Gulf Tanker Attacks Political promises ruled out immediate strikes before November Oct 9 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors Crude broke past $100 this week as geopolitical risk erupted across the Middle East. Brent traded near $106 before settling up 4%, while WTI pushed 3.6% higher. The rally followed reports of operational planning for direct U.S. strikes on Iran, paired with rising physical transport disruptions. A temporary political reprieve stopped the immediate melt-up. The White House explicitly ruled out direct strikes before the November midterm elections. That political pause took Brent off its intra-week peak to trade around $103, but it failed to erase the structural supply shock. The macro consequence is direct. Surging oil prices revive sticky headline inflation just as Fed policy reaches a delicate inflection point. That leaves equity multiples squeezed and digital assets navigating a tougher liquidity landscape. Here’s what our desk is watching. The Physical Supply Shock Outlasts Political Rhetoric Trading desks learned long ago that diplomatic statements cannot reopen shut pipelines or lower shipping insurance premiums. When the administration signaled no direct strikes on Iranian soil before the midterms, crude retraced several dollars off its highs. Yet physical markets barely flinched. The risk premium did not vanish; it merely changed its expiration date. The fundamental problem is that physical barrels remain trapped or delayed regardless of election calendars. Tanker incidents across the Persian Gulf reached their highest weekly level since the conflict flared earlier this year. Maritime tracking reports between nine and twelve commercial vessels targeted in the first week of October alone. UK Maritime Trade Operations logs confirm that transit through key maritime choke points is facing structural friction. At the same time, domestic output faces its own supply headwinds. Severe weather in the Gulf of Mexico shut in roughly 1.3 million barrels per day of U.S. crude production. The simultaneous hit to domestic extraction and international transit has removed any supply buffer from global inventories. This dynamic leaves central banks cornered. Bond markets have spent the past quarter betting on persistent disinflation and eventual easing. Triple-digit oil breaks that assumption. Refiners are bidding up spot cargoes, transportation costs are jumping, and bond yields are forced to price a longer period of tight liquidity. When input costs rise on supply destruction, consumer demand contracts while monetary policy remains frozen. Macro Trading Levels And The Equity Wedge Surging energy prices drive a clear wedge through equities. Cash is rotating rapidly out of high-multiple growth equities and into defensive, hard-asset balance sheets. Valuation compression hits hardest where cash flows sit furthest out in time. The tape reveals where real capital is moving across physical and derivative markets: Brent Crude: Broke key resistance above $100 per barrel, printing an intra-week high near $106 before settling around $103. WTI Crude: Gained 3.6% on the week, holding firmly above its multi-month breakout range. Gulf of Mexico Shut-Ins: An estimated 1.3 million barrels per day offline due to regional disruptions, tightening spot availability. Hormuz Tanker Incidents: Between 9 and 12 confirmed maritime security actions logged within a seven-day window. Energy producers and select industrial sectors are capturing the immediate cash flows generated by this price surge. In contrast, semiconductor stocks and rate-sensitive software platforms are absorbing valuation compressions. Higher freight costs and elevated diesel prices feed directly into operating expenses across supply chains. Small caps face an even steeper hurdle. Unlike mega-cap balance sheets holding net cash, smaller enterprises roll over operational debt at prevailing borrowing rates. When bond markets price sustained inflation, real borrowing costs jump, choking operational expansion. Bitcoin Resilience Meets Altcoin Fragility The digital asset sector is splitting along institutional and speculative lines. Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a macro liquidity asset, caught between safe-haven bidding and bond-market tightness. When geopolitical risk escalates, non-sovereign stores of value see targeted spot demand. However, broader crypto market analysis shows liquidity thinning out down the risk curve. On-chain data indicates capital is consolidating into core assets rather than dispersing into high-beta altcoins. Speculative tokens struggle whenever energy prices drive treasury yields higher, because leveraged funding rates become prohibitively expensive for momentum desks. Institutional players are treating Bitcoin as an independent ledger outside banking chokepoints. Yet until macro liquidity loosens, crypto allocations remain disciplined. The immediate challenge is not on-chain fundamentals, but the broader cost of capital dictated by the energy shock. Poll of the Day ( Powered by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL How will Bitcoin handle sustained $100+ oil? ⚡ 🛡️ Safe-haven rally 🩸 Hit by macro yields 😴 Range-bound chop 🌍 Market Catch-Up Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles The crypto market is showing a strong recovery today, illuminated by an extensive sea of green bubbles and impressive double-digit gains in major altcoins like BTW and PYTH. Bitcoin is ticking up nicely to support the broader upside, reflecting a healthy risk-on environment and steady buying momentum across the sector. 🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen! 💭 Banter’s Take Markets are treating this temporary political pause as a permanent peace, and our desk is not buying i

Productive talks did not stop the busiest tanker week since the war began. 🚨5 Smart Trades as Crude Ran Toward The Highs On Strike Talk Productive talks did not stop the busiest tanker week since the war began. Oct 9 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, The week is being priced as a delay first and a deal second. The strike is off until the midterms, crude is off the spike, and the premium is still in the price. Equities bounced after the chip hit. Crypto did not get the week back. That split still matters. Stocks are trading a date on the calendar. Digital assets are trading flows, relative strength, and a long end that only blinked. The October hike is still off the table. December is not. When Bitcoin holds the low $80,000s through a tanker week, it is telling you where the weak hands already left. Follow the assets that keep the bid when oil cools and the headline fades. Keep invalidation tight, and do not confuse a pause with a resolution. The path of least resistance is already on the screen. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Goldman says U.S. bonds have no buyers, yet the S&P sits at all-time highs. What breaks first? 📉 S&P 500 dumps 💥 Bond yields spike 🖨️ Fed prints more 🐂 Rally keeps going Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Sui(SUIUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – Internet Computer(ICPUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – Akedo(AKEDOUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Aptos(APTUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) 1-Day Chart #1 – Sui(SUIUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Sui is consolidating in a high-timeframe ascending pennant and support retest following a vertical multi-week expansion out of its prior accumulation range, holding structural support above the $1.0427 horizontal breakout pivot shelf to trade near $1.1224 on the daily timeframe. Architected by Mysten Labs as an ultra-high throughput Layer-1 blockchain, Sui utilizes an object-centric data model written in Sui Move alongside the Mysticeti DAG-based consensus engine, allowing single-owner transactions to bypass consensus via a fast path for sub-second finality while processing shared-object transactions in parallel. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $1.4240 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.9270–$1.0427 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $1.04 Stop Loss: $0.93 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.42 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Internet Computer(ICPUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Internet Computer is testing dynamic ascending trendline support following a multi-week continuation rally out of its summer accumulation base, holding constructive structural positioning above the $2.645 horizontal pivot shelf to trade near $3.184 on the daily timeframe. Developed by the DFINITY Foundation, Internet Computer functions as a sovereign Layer-1 "World Computer" blockchain powered by Chain Key Cryptography and WebAssembly (Wasm) canister smart contracts, enabling decentralized hosting, full-stack on-chain execution of web applications, AI models, and trustless multi-chain interoperability with Bitcoin and Ethereum without intermediaries. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $3.707 overhead swing-high resistance target as long as the $2.362–$2.645 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $2.6 Stop Loss: $2.3 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $3.7 Chart #3 – Akedo(AKEDOUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Akedo is compressing along a base-retest support shelf following a massive speculative expansion and mean-reversion retrace, holding tightly above the $0.0269402 horizontal pivot level to trade near $0.0299287 on the daily timeframe. Built as a decentralized Web3 gaming and intellectual property platform, Akedo operates an ecosystem combining NFT-backed digital collectibles, arcade-style battle games, and community-driven metaverse assets powered by transparent smart contract logic and decentralized gaming mechanics. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.0885327 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.0105014–$0.0269402 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $ 0.026 Stop Loss: $0.020 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.088 Chart #4 – Aptos(APTUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Aptos is executing a constructive pullback retest following an impulsive multi-week breakout rally out of its summer accumulation floor, absorbing sell-side pressure directly above the $0.8036 horizontal structural pivot to trade near $0.8246 on the daily timeframe. Built as a scalable Layer-1 blockchain engineered by former Diem engineers, Aptos utilizes the Move programming language and Block-STM parallel execution engine to achieve ultra-high transaction throughput, sub-second finality, and rigorous smart contract security. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $1.2381 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.6576–$0.8036 support base holds Trade Levels: Entry: $0.80 Stop Loss: $0.65 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.23 Chart #5 – Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (AMD refers to the stock of company Advanced Micro Devices and not a cryptocurrency.) Advanced Micro Devices is consolidating constructively following an impulsive multi-week breakout rally to new highs, establishing buyer absorption above the $624.90 structural pivot shelf to trade near $631.73 on the daily timeframe. As a premier semiconductor designer, AMD provides high-performance computing hardware, data center EPYC server CPUs, Radeon graphics, and Instinct AI accelerators alongside adaptive SoC solutions from Xilinx, capturing market share across hyperscale cloud infrastructure, enterprise

Memecoin dinner, the mathpocalypse, a five-star exploit review, Trump Accounts 🟪 Thursday links Memecoin dinner, the mathpocalypse, a five-star exploit review, Trump Accounts Byron Gilliam “We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done.” — Alan Turing Thursday links Another chance for dinner with the President Some good news on inflation: the cost of attending “the most exclusive dinner in the world” is falling fast. In May of last year, you needed approximately $380,000 worth of the TRUMP memecoin to rank among the 220 holders who qualified for a dinner with the President. Entry to the VIP reception required roughly $5 million worth. This was a bargain! For comparison, a Super PAC once sold tickets to a “candlelight dinner” with the president for $1 million each. Donors were also offered a one-on-one meeting with the president for $5 million. It’s an even bigger bargain now. Another dinner with TRUMP holders is scheduled for November and it looks dramatically easier to get an invite. The event is a little more exclusive, with only 185 guests making the cut this time. But cheaper. Right now, the 100th registrant holds just 404 TRUMP, which is worth just $730 these days. The 29th registrant — the last currently qualified for the VIP reception — holds 9,300 TRUMP, worth about $14,000. In other words, the cost of attending the most exclusive dinner in the world appears to have fallen by at least 99.8% in about a year and a half. Plus, you can sell your tokens immediately after the qualification window closes and get most of your money back! Honestly, I might try it. Mathpocalypse now? Theoretical computer scientist Scott Aaronson captured the mixed feelings elicited by OpenAI’s release of 377 new results in mathematics yesterday. He describes it as “one of the biggest days in mathematical history” — but also a “mathpocalypse.” (Note: Aaronson is real. It’s the computer science he studies that’s theoretical.) On the one hand, accelerating our understanding of math will accelerate our understanding of how the world works. One optimist thinks OpenAI’s results could lead to real-world advances like nuclear fusion, portable body scanners, and quantum sensors that could navigate the world without GPS. On the other hand, people are increasingly worried that math is accelerating too quickly. The Institute for Advanced Study said , “It is now the case that AI can output mathematical arguments in situations without the human who prompted it being able to understand the arguments, verify them, or take responsibility for them.” Another mathematician told Aaronson that seeing OpenAI’s results “felt like being teleported to the top of a mountain, surrounded by fog.” She appreciates the view, but would like to know how to get there on her own. In cryptography, the news has shifted the security debate from the threat posed by quantum computers to an even bigger threat posed by AI super-mathematicians. The “Bitcoin security researcher” Justin Drake says it’s time for crypto investors to go into “bunker mode.” He recommends that all crypto assets be moved to fresh addresses that have never exposed their public keys (because AI might soon discover math that can break them). “Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us,” he declared. “We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen.” Cryptographer Matthew Green seems equally concerned: “I think we might lose public key cryptography,” he commented on X this morning. If so, it won’t be just crypto assets at risk. Much of what you do on the internet — shopping, banking, logging into all kinds of accounts — is secured by public-key cryptography. This remains speculative because none of the results published yesterday were directly related to the field of cryptography. But Aaronson says they soon might. “My sources tell me that the AI companies have now started, gingerly and discreetly, investigating whether their latest internal models can break important cryptographic protocols and primitives.” Yikes. One reassuring thing is that the 377 problems that OpenAI solved were only 5% of the 8,000 problems they attempted. At school, that would earn them an F-. Also, their solutions might not be very good. “It feels like something written by someone who’s on psychedelics,” Aaronson was told by another mathematician (his wife). “So much [is] unclear and doesn’t make sense.” Good! If understanding is what counts, humans are still better at math than machines. But anyone who uses either crypto or the internet should be wondering for how much longer. Crypto security team gets positive review The hackers who recently exploited NEAR Intents for $3.8 million in crypto included a message in a blockchain transaction that returned the funds the next day: “ We were in the wrong.” They also left some feedback on the experience that reads like a Yelp review: “ Thank you to the NEAR team for being respectful, constructive, and cordial during the return process. ” That probably isn’t why they decided to return the funds. More likely it’s because the team at NEAR had figured out who they were. Either way, the end of the hackers’ onchain apology suggests they learned a lesson: “ Remember to always use bug bounties!” The cryptoization of traditional finance As of this month, every child in America with a Social Security number automatically has a “Trump Account” opened in their name. According to the original rules, parents and others could contribute cash to the accounts, which would then be invested in an index fund. Now, though, Treasury rules also allow charities to donate by sending shares of individual companies to all or some of the accounts. The donations cannot be rejected — which means that Trump Accounts are now like crypto addresses: anyone can send assets to anyone’s account, unsolicited. Donations can be targeted at groups of as few as 5,000 accounts. The W

Hollywood goes after Big Tech... October 09, 2026 Presented By Happy Friday. A 61-year-old Canadian grandma named DonnaJean Wilde has broken her own world record by holding a plank for more than five hours . It’s the rare story of a grandma staying on the ground for hours that’s actually positive. —Brendan Cosgrove, Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Dave Lozo, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman, Holly Van Leuven In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: Hollywood giving Big Tech its reckoning Starbucks–Chipotle merger rumors New data revealing earnings by college major Markets Nasdaq 27,193.34 -1.25% S&P 7,765.36 -0.47% Dow 51,231.64 +0.10% 10-Year 5.231% -5.0 bps Bitcoin $81,801.71 -1.90% Chipotle $32.65 +6.10% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks fell yesterday, pummeling the tech-heavy Nasdaq, following a report that OpenAI’s revenue was lower than estimated. In other words: It was just another day for markets as the AI industry continues to produce wild swings in both directions. Elsewhere, Chipotle ticked up amid rumors it could be bought by Starbucks (more on that later). MAKING A MARK Hollywood reckons with Big Tech Columbia Pictures Sixteen years after The Social Network , a new Facebook-focused film, The Social Reckoning , is in theaters today . Aaron Sorkin’s quasi-sequel has plenty of new material to work with, following the company as it deals with scandals and the negative consequences of its technology. It’s a good story, which is why Hollywood has approximately 1 billion other movies and TV shows dealing with similar dynamics coming out this fall. A Strong lead: The Social Reckoning , which stars Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg, covers events from 2019 to 2021, which, if you’re keeping track, takes place before Zuck cosplayed as Benson Boone . During that time, the company was riding high atop the algorithmic tiger of engagement and extremism, until a whistleblower helped land Zuck in front of Congress. From Sam A. to Mark Z. When it comes to Hollywood’s obsession with Big Tech, Zuck is just the tip of the ’berg: Alex Gibney’s four-hour Elon Musk documentary, Musk , is also in select theaters today. Next Friday, you can watch Nathan Fielder’s documentary on disgraced Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes. The Altruists , a limited series on former crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried, launches on Netflix next month. Andrew Garfield stars as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in Artificial , hitting theaters this Christmas. Then, there’s Cupertino , a new CBS drama where underdog lawyers take on fictionalized Silicon Valley companies and billionaires. The show is just meeting fans where they are: According to a recent CNBC/Generation Labs poll, Americans aged 18 to 34 overwhelmingly distrust some of Big Tech’s biggest names to act responsibly on AI, and many have a negative view of data centers and how AI will impact their careers. Behind the scenes: The slew of tech-focused content has also shone a light on Big Tech’s power. Amazon MGM opted to sell Artificial to another studio after striking a business deal with Altman’s OpenAI. Meanwhile, Musk’s X reportedly blocked ads for the new Musk documentary.— BC Reader Poll Which movie or TV show about Big Tech are you most looking forward to? ‘The Social Reckoning’ ‘Artificial’ ‘Cupertino’ ‘The Altruists’ ‘Musk’ None of these. Sponsored By Incogni Removing personal data from search engines Have you ever searched for your personal information on Google or ChatGPT? What starts as a fun goof could end up kinda sobering. You’d be shocked to find what people can see. Your name, phone number, and home address are just the beginning . Anyone deeply researching you can potentially learn about your family, SSN, health records, financial accounts, and employment history. But don’t be too spooked, especially with Incogni’s unlimited plan putting you back in control of your online privacy. It’s built to keep you safer from harmful scams, identity theft, financial fraud, and other threats that can impact your physical safety. Use code MORNING for a 55% discount—a Morning Brew exclusive—on unlimited removals from anywhere that exposes your data. World Tour de headlines Alex Wong/Getty Images 🪪 Trump admin suspends Microsoft from green card program. Vice President JD Vance said yesterday that the administration is suspending the tech giant from a program that allows its employees with H-1B visas to apply for green cards. Vance accused Microsoft of replacing American workers “with what is effectively foreign indentured servants.” In a statement, Microsoft said most applications were for workers already legally in the US, and they only comprised 1% of its US workforce. Supporters of the H-1B program argue it boosts competitiveness and innovation by hiring workers in high-skill roles that would otherwise be difficult to fill. H-1Bs have long been a target of the Trump administration, which contends that they undercut American workers. —AE 🌀 Hurricane Isaias may reach US Gulf Coast today. The storm, which is pronounced “Ees-ah-EE-ahs,” became the first hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season on Wednesday night. As of this morning, it’s a Category 2 storm. It’s expected to make landfall from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Florida Panhandle. Experts said Isaias could become a Category 3 storm today, before hitting land either tonight or early tomorrow. Yesterday, voluntary evacuations began in coastal Alabama, and mandatory evacuations began in some parts of Florida. Isaias is the latest first hurricane of the Atlantic season to develop since 1905, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.— HVL 💻 Amazon refreshes device lineup with new Alexa Tablets. The race to incorporate AI into as many gadgets as possible intensified yesterday, when the e-commerce giant launched three new tablets with built-in Alexa+, its AI assistant. The devices range from $230 to $550—m