Sam Altman says "some bad things" are ok for AI... October 06, 2026 Presented By Mornin’. Our family is growing! But we won’t make you watch us cut a colorful cake to reveal anything, we’ll just tell you right now that Express Checkout is joining Morning Brew Inc. So get ready to have Nate Rosen and Jenna Movsowitz fill you in on the latest trends in consumer packaged goods and the why and how behind what we’ll all be buying next. You can check it out here . —Matty Merritt, Dave Lozo, Molly Liebergall, Neal Freyman, Abby Rubenstein In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: A major climate change case at the Supreme Court Sam Altman’s thoughts on AI’s costs and benefits Why Slovenia might be the winner of the pivot to super intelligence Markets Nasdaq 27,477.31 +1.05% S&P 7,773.95 +0.66% Dow 51,267.9 +0.18% 10-Year 5.311% +3.0 bps Bitcoin $85,950.56 -0.55% SpaceX $171.09 +7.63% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Investors chose optimism yesterday, focusing on the promise of tech over signals from the bond market and pushing the Nasdaq to a new record . AI-related stocks in particular shone, with Nvidia also hitting a record and SpaceX hitting its highest since June, making Elon Musk a trillionaire again. BACK IN SESSION The Supreme Court hears Boulder vs Big Oil Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Jim Watson/Getty Images The Supreme Court returned from summer break and barely had time to hang up their flip-flops before jumping into one of the thorniest cases on the new term’s docket. The justices heard arguments yesterday in Boulder, CO’s lawsuit against Exxon Mobil and Suncor Energy for damages it claims they contributed to via climate change. The court’s decision could determine whether dozens of other lawsuits seeking billions of dollars from fossil fuel companies can proceed. A big tobacco moment? Boulder’s suit claims the energy companies contributed to climate disasters, including fires, that impacted the city. Boulder says it isn’t suing to regulate greenhouse gas emissions—instead it’s focusing on consumer protection, modeling its case after successful suits against opioid makers and the tobacco industry. Boulder argues that taxpayers shouldn’t shoulder the bill for cleanup, emergency services, and rebuilding. Exxon and Suncor say greenhouse gas emissions are regulated federally, not by states, so the lawsuit shouldn’t proceed. The Trump administration agrees. It could go a lot of ways The justices asked both sides tough and technical questions about the impact of federal law, making it hard to know how SCOTUS might rule (likely in June). Here are some possibilities: The court sides with the energy companies, ending the case. It sides with Boulder and the lawsuit continues (and likely so do many others). The justices split 4–4. This is possible because Justice Samuel Alito recused himself after watchdog groups pointed out his large investments in fossil fuel companies. The justices could also say it’s too early for them to get involved, leaving the case intact but the larger issue undecided. What else is on the docket? The Supreme Court will soon consider several cases that would grind any dinner conversation to a halt. There’s an immigration case over third-country deportations , plus cases over the Ten Commandments being displayed in schools and whether states can ban AR-15s. There could also be cases over the midterm elections.— MM Sponsored By Amazon Prime Big day for big deals Prime Big Deal Days is October 6 and 7. So two full days of deals exclusively for Prime members. With new deals dropping every day, there’s always something new to come back for. It’s a chance to get ahead on holiday gifting before the December rush: no scrambling required. It’s also a time to treat yourself before the gifting season takes over. Shop great deals across gifting, fall fashion, home decor, beauty, and more, and stock up on the goods that help you show up ready for the season’s gatherings. Shop Prime Big Deal Days now . World Tour de headlines Skydance 🎬 David Ellison’s $111 billion media conglomerate dream is now a reality. The merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery is set to close today , bringing together two storied movie studios, CNN, HBO, and more under the Skydance umbrella. Now we’ll see whether the deal is headed for a Hollywood ending or whether outbidding Netflix and securing a settlement with states bringing an antitrust suit was the easy part. Paramount took on a good chunk of debt to make the deal happen, and the new company’s net debt is estimated at $80+ billion. But Ellison has a team in place he thinks can keep the deal from following in the footsteps of the not-so-happy AOL and Time Warner tie-up. ⚕️Authorities investigate the death of a Russian anti-plague researcher. Russian authorities are looking into the death last week of a worker at the Anti-Plague Research Institute in Irkutsk province who contracted “pneumonia of an unknown cause.” US officials say they are also monitoring the incident. Nearly 200 people were under medical observation yesterday and one hospital was quarantined, although the regional governor said microorganisms linked to the deceased’s research were not detected in her body, according to NBC. President Trump told reporters he was concerned about the situation, but said “we’ll help.” 🧠 Nobel Prize awarded to developers of technique that sheds light on the brain. This year’s Nobel Prize in Medicine went to American Karl Deisseroth and Germans Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel for developing a technique that uses light to control individual nerve cells in the brain called optogenetics. The technique lets researchers activate or shut off neurons, allowing them to probe causes of behaviors and diseases. It has also shown promise as a therapy for blindness. But even with a Nobel Prize, the kids come first: Deisseroth, a professor at Stanford, t

Plus: Wall Street's Midas touch | Tuesday, October 06, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Oct 06, 2026 🤺 Tuesday, en garde! U.S. stock futures are pointing to a positive open after the Nasdaq closed yesterday at an all-time high. The S&P 500 ended up just shy of a new one, too. Yet the benchmark 10-year Treasury note marched upward, hitting its highest since 2002 before falling back. This morning, it's trading at 5.28%. You think we'll see 6% before year-end? Let us know . 🚛 Today, Matt takes a gander at what's going on with surging prices for trucking. (It's not just diesel.) Emily looks at what should be a bumper crop of Wall Street bonuses. And we venture south to see what made markets in Brazil so happy. Forward! 1,229 words, a 4.5-minute read. 1 big thing: Trucking costs in a higher gear By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips It's not just diesel. The Trump administration's regulatory clampdown on truckers is adding to surging transportation costs. Why it matters: Trucking is a major way that price shocks get transmitted through the economy. And limits on available drivers could amplify the impact of the spike in fuel costs, with diesel now averaging $6.32 a gallon — up over 70% from last year. The latest: The "prices paid" component of the September services reading from the Institute for Supply Management released yesterday registered another sizzling reading (74), indicating still-building price pressure in the system. (Above 50 indicates rising prices; below 50 indicates falling.) That's the highest reading on prices since July 2022 amid the post-COVID inflation. Chatter from the survey of supply chain managers was chock-full of transportation-related complaints. Between the lines: Most were about diesel. But trucking industry executives and analysts have also pointed to a reduction in truck driver capacity, which they attribute to the Trump administration's crackdown. Catch up quick: In April 2025, President Trump issued an executive order outlining the administration's plan to significantly ramp up enforcement of federal English-language requirements for drivers. The Department of Transportation has subsequently shut down scores of commercial driver's license training programs throughout the country. In March 2026, the DOT's commercial trucking subagency put new licensing requirements for non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses into force. The rules limited several categories of non-citizens or non-permanent residents — such as refugees, asylum seekers or most other temporary immigrants with work permits — from getting or renewing these licenses. Stunning stat: The DOT's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration estimates that there are roughly 200,000 people with non-domiciled CDLs in the market. That's roughly 5% of the 3.8 million interstate CDL holders in the country. The FMCSA expects roughly 194,000 of them to "exit the freight market." What they're saying: "The supply side has tightened materially, driven by federal enforcement actions and stricter safety rules," Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer of logistics firm RXO, told analysts after its August earnings. "Supply attrition has been faster than we initially expected and is removing the most irrational capacity from the marketplace," James Filter, the CEO of trucking firm Schneider National, told analysts in late July. Yes, but: For trucking companies, the supply issues and higher diesel could create opportunities to charge their customers higher shipping rates. "With the ongoing regulatory enforcement, reduced effective capacity in truckload is improving [truck-load] rates, and rates could continue to improve, should freight demand inflect more meaningfully," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote last month. The other side: Investors seem slightly less sanguine. Shares of C.H. Robinson Worldwide tanked yesterday, after the announcement of its $5.8 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of RXO, suggesting that investors are leery of betting big on the industry. The bottom line: From the trucking regulation push to the Iran war-driven diesel price surge, the U.S. government's actions continue to be a big factor in creating higher prices, and for some trucking companies, additional profits, at least for now. 2. 🤑 The money machine By Emily Peck Data: NYSE/Intercontinental Exchange via the New York State Comptroller; Chart Emily Peck/Axios; Note: 2026 projected by the comptroller if first-half growth continues at current pace. First-half 2026 profits were $45.9 billion. Profits are for broker-dealer operations of NYSE member firms and are not adjusted for inflation. Wall Street profits are blowing past expectations this year, the New York State Comptroller's office finds in a new report . Why it matters: Profits are on track for an all-time record, a sign of how the AI boom is fueling dealmaking and how volatile markets are helping trading. By the numbers: In the first half of this year, Wall Street firms raked in $45.9 billion — that's 51.3% more than the same period last year and already more than the $45.3 billion forecast for the entirety of 2026. If growth continues apace, annual profits could exceed $90 billion. Zoom out: That's far more than 2025's record $65.1 billion and rivals the 2009 record even after accounting for inflation, the report says. Stunning stat: The fees that firms earn from underwriting — helping companies sell new stocks and bonds — rose 68% in the first half of the year, compared with the first half of 2025. Zoom in: That tracks with a 76.5% increase in global equity issuance, a large chunk from the SpaceX initial public offering . Plus, there was also an 11.3% increase in debt issuance, with the AI hyperscalers among the biggest borrowers. Yes, but: It's anyone's guess as to whether the second half of the year looks like the first. There are plenty of market headwinds blowing: the Iran war, higher inflation and interest rate

Plus: The concentration concerns of restricted stock. October 6, 2026 PRESENTED BY Good morning. The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed allowing RIAs to custody clients’ crypto assets … just not necessarily the ones most people actually care about. Advisors wouldn’t have free rein to custody everybody’s bitcoin and ether. Instead, RIAs could step in only if they establish that no qualified third-party custodian is available to hold a particular digital asset, a determination they’d have to revisit quarterly. RIAs would also have to demonstrate expertise in safeguarding crypto and review their cybersecurity systems at least annually. For most clients, that may not matter much, though. Major custodians such as Coinbase, Fidelity and BitGo already custody bitcoin and ether. But if your client is all in on Garlicoin, you might be able to handle the custody yourself. MARKETS S&P 500 7,773.95 ▲ +0.66% DJI 51,267.90 ▲ +0.18% GPIQ $58.41 ▲ +0.67% *Stock data as of market close on October 5, 2026. Goldman Sachs Nasdaq-100 Premium Income ETF. Designed to deliver monthly income without sacrificing capital growth. * INDUSTRY NEWS SEC Lets Cboe List 3x Products Photo by Getty Images via Unsplash Here’s to limits being broken … or at least sidestepped. The Securities and Exchange Commission last week approved a rule allowing Cboe BZX, a major US securities and ETFs exchange, to begin listing six separate 3x leveraged funds from Volatility Shares. The company, along with others, has long asked the agency to approve such strategies, even filing for 5x leveraged funds late last year. This latest move marks a departure from the SEC’s typical wariness regarding leveraged products, having just halted reviews of ETFs with more than 2x leverage in December. But the distinction the SEC made this week is in regard to regulatory structure, not economic risk, securities lawyer Adam Gana said. “These commodity-based products are operating through a different regulatory framework than traditional 1940 Act funds,” Gana said. “To the average retail investor, however, that distinction is nonexistent. They see an ETF in their brokerage account.” Exchange-Traded Something The SEC’s reasoning is that these specific Volatility Shares funds, unlike other 3x, 4x and even 5x proposed funds that issuers have tried to launch, can be regulated by the Securities Act of 1933 rather than the Investment Company Act of 1940. Under the ‘40 Act’s rule 18f-4, which was passed in 2020 and regulates funds’ use of derivatives, registered ETFs can’t offer more than 2x leverage. There are a handful of 3x funds in existence, but these preceded the rule and were grandfathered in. Volatility Shares, by going through the ‘33 Act, avoids the 2x limit. “All six that were filed, they’re all crypto- and commodity-based, so [Volatility Shares was] able to use this pathway,” said Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at TMX VettaFi. “When you think of other 4x, 5x and other 3x [products], a lot of those are single-stock ETFs, and those wouldn’t have qualified.” Volatility Shares, which declined to comment, will now have more leveraged products available: The SEC’s latest move will allow the issuer’s 3x products tracking gold, silver, bitcoin, ether, crude oil and natural gas to begin trading. Volatility Shares already had 2x funds available, however, such as BITX and ETHU, which track bitcoin and ether, respectively. These were approved using the same ‘33 Act pathway, Islam said. Making Waves. The SEC’s decision will likely spur other funds to file for leveraged crypto and commodity products, Islam said. Still, it’s “big news” for Volatility Shares, she added, especially since the firm has so many leveraged crypto products on the market. “We could see more [issuers] follow in the 3x leveraged space, particularly for these crypto products,” Islam said. “There’s a lot of trading demand for them.” Written by Lilly Riddle PRESENTED BY FIDELITY INVESTMENTS How Much of Your Week Goes to Client Planning? Photo via Fidelity Investments The answer usually depends less on the advisor and more on their firm’s operating model. Christian Hutchins and Jesse Brown hit the limits of theirs at a volume-driven firm, so in 2024 they launched Rolling Hills Advisors, and put client-planning at the center . A consultant pointed them to Mariner Independent, which took on compliance, reporting, and technology selection, while adding mentorship on growth strategy. Staying independent also meant keeping their custody relationship with Fidelity , which made transferring existing client assets easier . “The custodial relationship was huge, and I don’t think we would have made the move if we had to change it,” says Brown. This supported independence model gives them room to grow intentionally, true to the vision they started with. Read more about how a planning-focused culture can be built. INVESTING STRATEGIES Don’t Let Clients Get Burned by Restricted Stock Units at Tax Time Cash is king, sure, but restricted stock units are also royal in their own regard. Company stock can represent more than half of total compensation for top executives at publicly traded companies, per data from Northern Trust . Without a plan in place, it can create significant concentration issues and a serious liquidity crunch at tax time. The best outcomes require executives (and their advisors) to look at it as part of the entire household balance sheet, rather than treating salary, equity awards, deferred comp and taxes as separate silos. “Managing different forms of compensation as part of the broader plan for our corporate executive clients is a mix of art and science,” said Robert Westley, senior vice president and wealth advisor at Northern Trust. “You have to balance a lot of moving pieces.” Stock Comp Fundamentals The tax issues involved in equity compensation are fundamentally about when the stock becomes taxable and whether the client has the liquidity needed to pay th

Plus: Skydance has a lot riding on a boom or bust box office. October 6, 2026 Good morning. The CEO of Saudi Aramco cautioned investors at a conference in London on Monday that it could take as long as two years for global oil inventories to recover from the US-Iran war. Amin Nasser estimated the conflict has erased nearly 3 billion barrels of oil supply and led to another billion being drawn from stocks, leaving global inventories “scarily thin.” International benchmark Brent crude is currently at around $100 per barrel, a nearly 40% increase from $72.50 before the war. It’s good news for oil executives, whose companies have reaped windfall profits in recent months thanks to the higher margins on the crude oil and refined fuels they sell. For everyone else, there’s a Klarna plan for full gas tanks. MARKETS S&P 500 7,773.95 ▲ +0.66% DJI 51,267.90 ▲ +0.18% GM $80.23 ▲ +2.50% Stock data as of market close on October 5, 2026. AUTOS GM Says Hybrid Vehicles on the Way as Asian Carmakers Capture Spiking Demand Forget celebrity-fronted TV spots, viral social media blitzes and flashy highway billboards. The best marketing campaigns for hybrid vehicles in the US are gas station signs that read $4.36 per gallon . Last week, Japanese and Korean automakers revealed record third-quarter hybrid sales in the US, driven by American consumers who asked their local car dealerships for the most mileage-friendly option. Their US rivals, months after a hard pivot away from electrified vehicles, suddenly looked flat-footed. On Monday, General Motors Vice President Mike Anderson told CNBC that the Detroit auto giant is working to change that “as quickly as we can.” A Hybrid Sparkplug Last fall, US federal tax credits worth up to $7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used ones expired, denting EV sales prospects like the T-ball grade-schoolers next door dent the panels on a new car. With tax credits gone, EV sales plummeted 23% year over year in the second quarter, according to Cox Automotive. Cox projects the pace of the decline will rise to 45% in the third quarter, though a last-minute rush on EV buying before the Sept. 30, 2025, tax credit deadline likely caused considerable distortion. As EV prospects dimmed, the Big Three Detroit automakers, General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, pivoted. They incurred more than $50 billion in combined write-downs and restructuring charges to cut back on ambitious EV plans launched before the EV tax credits went the way of the DeLorean. Production shifted to the classic pickups and SUVs with high profit margins that have been top sellers for years. Cue the US-Iran war in February. Consumer incentives in the car market were turned around again. Confronted with staggering gas bills, US car buyers honed in on hybrids, which conserve fuel by running on both gas engines and electric motors. In August, 19% of all US vehicle sales were hybrids, compared to 16% before the war, according to JD Power. But the companies capturing the lion’s share of that growth are not in Detroit, they’re across the Pacific. Japanese and Korean automakers with a historically large US presence maintained a more robust EV and hybrid offering than their American rivals, making them the chief beneficiaries of the hybrid surge: South Korea’s Hyundai reported last week that its US hybrid sales grew 35% in the third quarter, powering the lion’s share of growth for its quarterly record 246,896 vehicles sold, up 3% year over year. Hybrid sales at Kia, which Cox identified as the fastest-growing hybrid seller and which Hyundai owns 35% of, rose an even more dramatic 152% in the third quarter. Toyota said its US electrified vehicle sales, which includes hybrids, rose 28.5% year over year in the third quarter, while Cox estimated the Japanese automaker holds a commanding 44% of the US hybrid market. Honda’s US hybrid sales rose 21% to a record 106,000 in the third quarter. Still Unclear: Sales at GM, which offers only one hybrid model, fell 6% in the first nine months of the year. GM’s Anderson didn’t offer CNBC a timeline as to when the company will roll out hybrids — it has previously targeted 2027 — but acknowledged the recent spike in demand and said the company is “not tone deaf to our customers.” In August, Detroit rival Ford previewed mockups of a $25,000 small hybrid crossover to car dealers, which it expects to launch in 2029. Written by Sean Craig MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT Skydance Faces One Box Office Bust After Another Photo via JIM RUYMEN/UPI/Newscom On the eve of its merger deal with Paramount Skydance finally closing, Warner Bros. Discovery went out with a bang in the form of a nuclear-grade box office bomb. Over the weekend, the Tom Cruise-led “Digger” earned an abysmal $8 million across 3,300 screens with a budget that reportedly ran close to $180 million. They’ll be seeing red for a while on that one. As David Ellison’s new media empire, which will henceforth be simply known as Skydance, begins a debt-strapped new era, the “Digger” disaster is a reminder that the modern box office remains boom or bust. That leaves the company largely reliant on whether its streaming unit can grow faster than its still-lucrative linear TV business can sink. What could go right? Showtime, Baby Box office booms are still possible, and the theatrical industry is actually enjoying its best year since the pre-pandemic Before Times . But neither WBD nor Paramount has been invited to the party. “Digger” is just the latest in what looks like a WBD carpet bombing campaign this year, following fellow high-profile flops like “Supergirl” and “The Bride.” That makes it no surprise that WBD’s studio heads Pamela Abdy and Michael De Luca, who led the company to a record-breaking and award-winning 2025 , have already been informed they won’t have a home in the newly combined Skydance. Paramount’s not faring much better, if at all. The studio earned just the seventh-largest box office haul this summer, behind WBD (6th place), indie studi

Bond liquidity flashes an institutional warning as crypto builders gather at TOKEN2049. Equities Hit Highs and Bond Demand Dries Up Bond liquidity flashes an institutional warning as crypto builders gather at TOKEN2049. Oct 6 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors Equities pushed into fresh all-time highs while sovereign debt markets flashed a stark liquidity divergence. The U.S. economy continues to extend one of the longest consecutive business expansions in modern history. Beneath that headline resilience, real purchasing power continues to bleed as American wages fail to keep pace with inflation, and sovereign yields face acute buyer fatigue. Meanwhile, crypto markets are absorbing macro volatility as institutional attention gathers in Singapore for TOKEN2049. Traders are watching short-term central bank interventions, punctuated by the Federal Reserve injecting liquidity into overnight markets The split between tightening bond dynamics and crypto capital rotation is sharpening across the floor. Speculative token hype and high-beta altcoin narratives are colliding directly with serious institutional infrastructure demands. Here’s what our desk is watching. Sovereign Debt Warnings and the Macro Engine The tension between persistent macroeconomic growth and fiscal sustainability is reaching a critical inflection point. The S&P 500’s push into record territory reflects nominal economic resilience, but underlying balance sheets tell a far more cautious story. Real American earnings have failed to keep pace with the broader cost of living, compounding household financial strain. When wage growth lags inflation, corporate margin expansion relies heavily on aggregate debt rather than organic consumption. That sovereign debt burden is now stressing the bond complex. Desk commentary across institutional macro desks, notably echoed by Goldman Sachs, suggests that standard demand pools for U.S. Treasuries are increasingly exhausted. Analysts have openly described a scenario where domestic bonds face a structural lack of buyers at prevailing auction schedules. Treasury yields have reacted to this buyer strike, turning sovereign bonds into an active warning signal for broad risk assets. The Fed’s injection of $1.946 billion into the banking pipeline reflects the ongoing operational struggle to keep overnight financing smooth. Fed policy remains caught between mitigating banking liquidity pressures and re-anchoring persistent cost-of-living inflation. Higher structural financing costs must eventually filter into equity multiples and debt service obligations. As fixed income demands higher term premiums, capital becomes significantly more selective across equities and semiconductor stocks. When sovereign issuance encounters a ceiling of private capital, speculative risk trades are usually the first to adjust. Equity Resilience Meets Cash-Flow Catalysts Risk assets have responded to tightening debt conditions by bifurcating between passive equity momentum and protocol cash-flow narratives. While the broader equity indexes post new highs on passive inflows, high-beta assets are requiring distinct tokenomics and real revenue yields to maintain positioning. S&P 500 Index: Closed at a fresh all-time high despite widening Treasury spreads and sovereign debt saturation. 78 Months: Current duration of the U.S. economic expansion, the sixth-longest registered cycle in 170 years. $1,946,000,000: Total overnight liquidity injected by the Federal Reserve to stabilize systemic cash demands. $3,500 Target: Long-term valuation target established by Standard Chartered for AAVE by 2030 based on fee capture. These data points demonstrate that macro trading is shifting toward proven yield-generating architectures. Aave founder Stani Kulechov confirmed upcoming speaking engagements addressing the convergence between traditional finance and decentralized lending. More critically, governance signals and desk checks point to an active token burn model under development for AAVE. Institutions are taking note of this fee accrual. Standard Chartered’s $3,500 target on AAVE reflects how decentralized credit markets can capture share as traditional banking rails face higher reserve costs. When sovereign yields threaten traditional risk premiums, capital rotates toward platforms that buy back their own supply from organic protocol usage Cryptographic Security and Emerging Infrastructure The digital asset ecosystem is reacting to both sovereign liquidity stress and long-term computational risks. While Bitcoin and core altcoins monitor Fed liquidity, institutional builders in Singapore at TOKEN2049 are focused on protocol survivability and cryptographic permanence. Privacy and post-quantum security dominated the early agenda, led by sizable builder delegations. Zcash fielded three primary speakers, including Zooko Wilcox, to debate zero-knowledge scalability and artificial intelligence transacting without traditional banking intermediaries. Concurrently, dedicated events like Q Day,co-hosted by Quantus and NEAR at Singapore’s Tower Club,spotlighted the reality of post-quantum cryptography. Quantus CEO Chris Smith argued that Layer 1 blockchains must build quantum-resistant algorithms into their base layers today rather than risking chaotic network migrations later. Balaji Srinivasan’s attendance highlighted growing venture focus on post-quantum infrastructure. On the consumer side of digital assets, attention is fixated on Polymarket. Polymarket’s leadership teased an upcoming token at TOKEN2049, sparking speculation regarding a potential $100 billion fully diluted valuation. While a hundred-billion-dollar valuation appears overly aggressive for an event-contract venue, Polymarket’s market share demonstrates undeniable product-market fit. Traders evaluating on-chain data must diff

Bitcoin holds the range as oil cools, but a pause is not a reversal. 🚨5 Clever Setups as Goldman Sees No Bond Buyers Bitcoin holds the range as oil cools, but a pause is not a reversal. Oct 6 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, The tape steadied on cheaper oil, not on a truce. Yields eased off a 24-year high, stocks followed that into a chip-led record, and the October hike is still off the table. December is not. Equities are riding the relief. They are not leading the bonds. Crude fell back under $100 as Gulf barrels kept moving and the reserve release did its work. Iran still has no deal, and strikes are still hitting the route. Oil is cheaper than Monday. It is not calm, and it is not done shoving yields around. Bitcoin is stuck in the mid-$80,000s after another failed test of the recent high. ETFs gave a day back. Crypto is on the same stack as stocks, as long end that only blinked, a war that can reprice oil before the open, and a bid that is still picky. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Goldman says U.S. bonds have no buyers, yet the S&P sits at all-time highs. What breaks first? 📉 S&P 500 dumps 💥 Bond yields spike 🖨️ Fed prints more 🐂 Rally keeps going Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Cronos(CROUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – Hedera (HBARUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – Akedo(AKEDOUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Aptos(APTUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) 1-Day Chart #1 – Cronos(CROUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Cronos is maintaining a constructive ascending consolidation above its recent breakout base, grinding higher along dynamic trendline support and holding firm above the $0.06052 horizontal structural pivot to trade near $0.06768 on the daily timeframe. Serving as the native utility and gas token of the Cronos blockchain and the Crypto.com ecosystem, Cronos powers an EVM-compatible Layer-1 network built on the Cosmos SDK, facilitating rapid DeFi adoption, NFT minting, payment processing rails, and seamless cross-chain interoperability with Ethereum and Cosmos-based chains. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.08316 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.05300–$0.06052 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.060 Stop Loss: $0.053 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.083 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Hedera (HBARUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Hedera is consolidating in a high-timeframe bull flag retest following a vertical impulse out of its multi-month accumulation range, absorbing sell-side pressure above the $0.09577 horizontal pivot shelf to trade near $0.10075 on the daily timeframe. Powered by the Hashgraph directed acyclic graph (DAG) consensus algorithm, Hedera delivers enterprise-grade throughput, asynchronous Byzantine Fault Tolerance (aBFT), ultra-low fixed transaction fees, and high-efficiency smart contracts governed by a decentralized council of leading global corporations and institutions. This long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.13058 overhead swing-high target as long as the $0.08766–$0.09577 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.095 Stop Loss: $0.087 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.130 Chart #3 – Akedo(AKEDOUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Akedo is compressing along a base-retest support shelf following a massive speculative expansion and mean-reversion retrace, holding tightly above the $0.0269402 horizontal pivot level to trade near $0.0299287 on the daily timeframe. Built as a decentralized Web3 gaming and intellectual property platform, Akedo operates an ecosystem combining NFT-backed digital collectibles, arcade-style battle games, and community-driven metaverse assets powered by transparent smart contract logic and decentralized gaming mechanics. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.0885327 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.0105014–$0.0269402 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $ 0.026 Stop Loss: $0.020 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.088 Chart #4 – Aptos(APTUSDT) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Aptos is executing a constructive pullback retest following an impulsive multi-week breakout rally out of its summer accumulation floor, absorbing sell-side pressure directly above the $0.8036 horizontal structural pivot to trade near $0.8246 on the daily timeframe. Built as a scalable Layer-1 blockchain engineered by former Diem engineers, Aptos utilizes the Move programming language and Block-STM parallel execution engine to achieve ultra-high transaction throughput, sub-second finality, and rigorous smart contract security. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $1.2381 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.6576–$0.8036 support base holds Trade Levels: Entry: $0.80 Stop Loss: $0.65 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.23 Chart #5 – Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) 1-Day Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (AMD refers to the stock of company Advanced Micro Devices and not a cryptocurrency.) Advanced Micro Devices is consolidating constructively following an impulsive multi-week breakout rally to new highs, establishing buyer absorption above the $624.90 structural pivot shelf to trade near $631.73 on the daily timeframe. As a premier semiconductor designer, AMD provides high-performance computing hardware, data center EPYC server CPUs, Radeon graphics, and Instinct AI accelerators alongside adaptive SoC solutions from Xilinx, capturing market share across hyperscale cloud infrastructure, enterprise computing, and generative AI workloads. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $757.18 overhead resistance target as

Here’s what you need to watch... 🥛 BTC’s top is 1yr old today 🎂 Here’s what you need to watch... Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that turns you from exit liquidity into the person who saw it coming. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ BTC’s top is 1yr old today. 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Why LayerZero Could Be the Biggest Sleeping Giant in Crypto . 🍪 Aerodrome and Velodrome are merging. Nexo is a premier digital asset platform that helps clients build, manage, and preserve their wealth. Get started with Nexo today. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. BITCOIN'S TOP IS ONE YEAR OLD TODAY 🎂 One year ago today, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,198. ... then the party ended pretty quickly. Over the next nine months, BTC fell ~54% to a low near $58K this summer. It's since clawed back to ~$86K, which still leaves it ~32% below the top. That makes today a big date for anyone who follows the four-year cycle. Quick refresher on the theory: Bitcoin tends to peak, fall for about 12 months, then climb for the next ~3 years. If the calendar holds, the "down" year ends today. Geoffrey Kendrick (head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered) told us last week that Bitcoin has "100% seen the low." He even expects cycle-watchers to treat today as a buying opportunity, "which I think is sensible." His big tell came on Aug 19: That's when the U.S. Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated government bonds (the government buying back its own older debt), from $2B to at least $4B per operation. Kendrick took it as the signal that the down cycle was officially over. BTC seemed to agree, jumping from ~$65K to ~$78K over the next three days. Source: TradingView BTC then closed the third quarter up ~42.7%, its best third quarter since 2017. Our crypto analyst John Gillen is firmly in that camp. He says it's a bull market until someone sells BTC below $75,500 "in full view of God and my limit orders" (his standing orders to buy at set prices). The Treasury bought those bonds to drag long-term borrowing costs down. But the bond market had other plans... ONE ACCOUNT FOR ALL YOUR CRYPTO NEEDS Crypto is still a weirdly fragmented experience. One app to buy. Another to earn yield. A third to borrow against your stack. But Nexo is now bringing it all under one roof: Trade, Earn, and Borrow. Nexo is a premier digital asset platform that helps clients build, manage, and preserve their wealth. Here's what makes them worth trusting: Official Crypto Partner of Tennis Australia First Digital Asset Partner of the Audi Revolut Formula 1 Team Operating since 2018 $7B+ in AUM SOC 2 & SOC 3 certified 24/7 client care Get started with Nexo today. BITCOIN'S TOP IS ONE YEAR OLD TODAY (P2) 🎂 On Aug 19, the 10-year Treasury yield (what the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years) dipped from 4.71% to 4.65%. Two days later, it was back above where it started. And it's kept climbing ever since. It's now hovering around 5.3%, its highest level since 2002. Source: U.S. Treasury That's a headache for Bitcoin, because a government bond now pays you ~5% a year for doing nothing. Every dollar that goes into something riskier has to beat that. Which is why two of our PRO analysts are sitting on their hands. M0xt kept this month's new cash parked. The MRMI (Milk Road Macro Index, our gauge of whether the macro backdrop favors risk) recently hit -1.25, its lowest since the March crash, and now sits at -0.86. In his words, a 5.3% yield "puts a real price on every dollar I deploy." Source: Milk Road Macro Index Kyle is waiting too. He's still bullish on crypto and still mostly invested. But he's hoping for a pullback over the next couple of weeks to buy into. Even the four-year cycle crowd can't agree on what comes next. Benjamin Cowen (crypto analyst) had pegged this month as the most likely timing for the cycle bottom. Veteran trader Peter Brandt went further, circling Oct 4 with $40-50K in mind. Oct 4 came and went with BTC sitting at ~$85K. Either this cycle's bottom came early (and shallower than usual), or there's one more leg down to come. Long story longer - right now, it’s looking like the bond market matters more than the calendar. Three things we’re watching from here: John's $75,500 level (we want to stay above it). The 10-year yield (down = good for BTC. Up = bad for BTC). What happens on Nov 4, when the bigger Treasury buybacks wind down (one day after the U.S. midterm elections). ICYMI: four of our PRO analysts already hold BTC, with average entries between ~$63K and ~$70K. Every one of them is up between 22% and 35% on it - all while BTC itself still sits ~32% below its high. That's what getting in early buys you: enough cushion that a drop to John's $75,500 level still leaves all four in profit. If you want to catch their next moves as they happen, try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days . CALLING ALL CRYPTO NERDS 🥛 If you wake up and check Bitcoin before the weather, spend too much time on Crypto Twitter, and can actually write, we might have a job for you. Milk Road is looking for a crypto-focused writer/content creator to join the team. Come be bullish with us BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Securitize is the company quietly powering BlackRock, Apollo and KKR's move onchain. Here's how we broke it down in our article.* Aerodrome and Velodrome are merging into one unified liquidity layer on Ethereum, rebranding as AERO Dynamics. Polymarket pulled in $9.9M over one weekend , nearly 5x what Hyperliquid made over the same stretch. Tokenized assets sit at $300B today , a fraction of the $674T in global financial assets. Still room to run. *this is sponsored content. Get started with Nexo today. This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada

Plus: Constellation's latest deal | Tuesday, October 06, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Oct 06, 2026 Tuesday ✅. Today's newsletter is 743 words, a 3-minute read. 📈 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.6% to a new record high. 🔥 Today's stock spotlight: Advanced Micro Devices (+2.8%) CEO Lisa Su told reporters she predicts "very high" chip demand continuing for the next few years. 1 big thing: LIV's secret deals LIV Golf players Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton. Photo: Michael Miller/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images A federal judge is expected to hear arguments tomorrow on whether LIV Golf should be allowed to keep its player severance deals secret in bankruptcy court. Why it matters: The Saudi-backed league filed for Chapter 11 last month after its strategy of paying big money to lure players away from the PGA Tour proved unsustainable. 🤐 The intrigue: Bankruptcy experts questioned whether LIV Golf's motion to file the contracts under seal is justified, saying there must be a compelling reason to shield them from the spotlight in court. LIV Golf attorneys said in a court filing that its players' separate agreements contain "commercially sensitive" information that must be shielded from public view, including "specific and detailed terms regarding releases, payment amounts, and ongoing business arrangements." 🤷 What we're watching: It remains to be seen whether anyone will object. The U.S. Trustee — part of President Trump's DOJ — would typically be the most likely party to file an objection to a request like this in a major bankruptcy case. But it has not done so yet — and the office declined to comment for this story. ⛳️ Zoom out: Wednesday's hearing is a pivotal moment in the case as LIV tries to find a path to reinvention after the Saudis withdrew funding, citing a shift in investment strategy. LIV disclosed Monday in a court filing that it had obtained $4 million in debtor-in-possession bankruptcy financing from BC Partners as part of the investor's agreement to provide up to $300 million if it can lure a sufficient number of players to commit to the league's second iteration. The investor envisions players participating in LIV 2.0 as equity holders, giving them "a direct voice in building its future." Go deeper 2. Nuclear bump Data: Financial Modeling Prep ; Chart: Pete Gannon/Axios Google and Constellation Energy announced a deal in which Constellation will invest $4.3 billion to upgrade 11 nuclear units in three states to help meet growing demand for electricity, Axios' Pete Gannon writes . Why it matters: It's the latest deal from Big Tech meant to fund new nuclear generating capacity needed to support its enormous data center buildout. ⚡️ Driving the news: Google parent Alphabet signed a deal to purchase power from Constellation for 20 years. That contracted revenue will enable Constellation to upgrade 11 company-owned nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The upgrades will result in 890 megawatts of new capacity — roughly the output of a new nuclear reactor — delivered to the PJM Interconnection grid in phases from 2028 through 2032, the companies said. ☢️ The big picture: The AI industry's near-term need for power is presenting an opportunity for the nuclear industry, Axios Pro's Katie Fehrenbacher has reported . Brand-new nuclear projects can take decades and tens of billions of dollars to build — but extensions and restarts of aging reactors take far less time and money. 📈 The impact: Constellation shares closed up 12.1%. Go deeper 3. Other happenings Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios 🍣 Uber is acquiring ezCater for $2.3 billion, a deal meant to broaden Uber Eats' reach to corporate clients looking to cater events and meetings. ( WSJ ) 🏷️ Mattel is facing more pressure to consider a sale, this time from 5.4% shareholder Ariel Investments. ( Reuters ) 🍔 McDonald's plan to overhaul its restaurants and menu is drawing questions from some U.S. franchisees concerned about the costs of upgrades. ( Bloomberg ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS See what's next for media in 2027 Media Trends Executive Annual members receive the 2026 Annual Report, our special media document featuring global forecasts, sector analysis and exclusive media data insights. 🔒 Get the report by becoming a Media Trends Executive member. 4. 📖 My new book! Cover: Beacon Press And now to shift gears ... I have a new book coming out! State of play: " Big Labor's Big Shift " will be released April 27 by Beacon Press. It chronicles the American union movement's resurgence and dramatic move to the right — a massive political realignment. The backdrop is an ongoing battle for the soul of the American working class over issues like immigration, trade and culture. 🔍 Zoom in: The book traces how the shift happened, including: Teamsters president Sean O'Brien, who has cozied up to Trump and delivered his message at the Republican National Convention. UAW president Shawn Fain, who has aligned with the White House on tariffs while blasting Democrats over their push for EVs. The bottom line: You can preorder it now ! A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS See what's next for media in 2027 Media Trends Executive Annual members receive the 2026 Annual Report, our special media document featuring global forecasts, sector analysis and exclusive media data insights. 🔒 Get the report by becoming a Media Trends Executive member. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Get started today . Follow Axios across: