Plus: Treasury holds the line | Wednesday, August 26, 2026 Axios Macro By Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown · Aug 26, 2026 New July data on inflation, incomes and consumer spending points to an uneven evolution of the U.S. economy this summer. We parse it all below. Plus, a look at the signs that the Treasury Department's intervention in the bond market is having its intended effect of holding the line on long-term rates. Situational awareness: In an interview with Courtenay in West Palm Beach yesterday, acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling said the department has struck data-sharing deals with tech giants to help track how AI is affecting jobs and hiring. Go deeper . Today's newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Cane and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 942 words, a 3.5-minute read. 1 big thing: A mixed-bag economy Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The latest data offers a mixed picture of the economy: Incomes are rising at a solid clip, but inflation remains stubborn and consumer spending has lost momentum. Why it matters: Consumers are becoming more cautious. The potential upside of weaker spending is that it should help cool inflation, but that payoff has yet to materialize, with underlying inflation still higher than at any point in 2024 or 2025. Persistent inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates, but greater caution among consumers raises concerns that policy tightening would weigh on spending and economic growth. What they're saying: "The best thing that can be said is that at least core inflation didn't go higher," Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, wrote in a note, referring to the inflation gauge that strips out food and energy costs. The inflation fear is that "instead of reversing, it's plateauing," Jacobsen added. The good news: Americans' disposable income rose 0.5% in July. Those gains still held up after accounting for inflation for the third consecutive month, with real disposable income increasing 0.4%. Spending slowed notably, with personal consumption expenditures rising just 0.2% in July and essentially flat after adjusting for inflation, compared with a 0.4% real increase in June. The weakness was concentrated in goods, where spending fell at a roughly $50 billion annualized rate, partly offsetting an $86 billion increase in services spending. With income growth outpacing that of spending, the personal saving rate advanced for the first time this year, to 3%, up 0.4 percentage point from June. The other side: The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in July and was up 3.3% from a year earlier, unchanged from June. Over the past three months, core inflation ran at a 3% annualized pace, down from a recent peak of 4.5% in May, but still well above the Fed's 2% target. The intrigue: Revised GDP figures suggest the economy entered the summer with stronger momentum than previously known, before signs of more subdued consumer spending emerged in July. Topline GDP growth was unchanged at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter. But real final sales to private domestic purchasers — a gauge of underlying private sector demand that sums up consumer spending and business investment — grew at a robust 4.2% annualized rate, the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2019, excluding the pandemic-era swings. That was upgraded from an initial estimate of 3.9%, pointing to greater underlying economic strength than initially estimated. What to watch: Inflation worries have become more pronounced inside the Fed. Boston Fed president Susan Collins said yesterday that interest rates may need to rise "soon" without evidence of sustained progress on inflation. Her warning comes after three Fed officials backed a rate hike in July , while the minutes from the meeting showed that "many" policymakers saw further tightening as likely if inflation failed to decline. Fed chairman Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Friday morning, giving him a chance to weigh in on the Fed's path forward. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Break through the noise with Axios Reach execs and business leaders with Axios. We'll help you tell your story in the right way: We'll distill your brand's message into its most effective form with Smart Brevity. No clutter, no filler — just clean, smart and effective. Contact us to learn more. 2. Long bonds calm down Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios There is a hot debate over the wisdom of the Treasury Department's bond market intervention. In the meantime, market moves suggest Treasury's intended purpose — of reining in longer-term borrowing costs — is working. The big picture: Long-term Treasury yields have stabilized since the government said a week ago that it would buy back longer-term securities by at least $4 billion at a time. Technical indicators in the bond market, specifically the gap between Treasury yields and swaps of equivalent duration, have narrowed, implying global investors are more willing to hold Treasuries. By the numbers: The 30-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high of 5.31% on Aug. 17. Since then, those yields have come down, to 5.19% this morning. The more widely traded — and economically consequential — 10-year Treasury note is now yielding 4.66%, down from 4.72% on Aug. 17. Between the lines: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a longtime hedge fund manager, believes that carefully crafted interventions can have outsized effects on the market by changing traders' behavior, persuading them that betting against the U.S. government would be hazardous. In the early innings, at least, he appears to be achieving his goal of making it riskier for investors to bet against long-term Treasuries. What they're saying: "This new Treasury 'put' improves the asymmetry of owning the long end by providing a potential light backstop," Jason Williams, head of U.S. rates strategy at Citi, tells Bloomberg . Bessent's actions "all point to someone ready to do whate

Plus Apple, Meta and Alphabet (on Base)... 🥛 Coinbase put Nvidia onchain ⛓️ Plus Apple, Meta and Alphabet (on Base)... Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that just extended its Milk Road PRO price increase window by 24hrs. Prices go from $25/m to $39/m at midnight tonight (ET)! Last chance to lock in lower prices for life! Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ Coinbase put Nvidia onchain. 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Bitwise Just Launched the Next Generation of Onchain Investing . 🍪 "I believe Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin this year.” Ledn gives you an indirect way to get professional, institutional-grade custody. See how Ledn stores your BTC. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. COINBASE PUT NVIDIA ONCHAIN ⛓️ Coinbase spent Monday putting four American tech stocks onchain. Nvidia, Apple, Meta and Alphabet went live as tokens on Base, where anyone eligible outside the U.S. can hold them in a self-custody wallet with no brokerage account involved. They trade 24/7, which is already more than the actual stock market manages. The plumbing works like this: A market maker buys the real shares → Alpaca (an SEC-registered broker-dealer) holds them in a segregated account → and you get a token that's a claim on that share (with dividends and stock splits passing through to the token). Which sounds neat… But, why bother when stocks are already easily tradable elsewhere? Because a token can plug into other software, while a brokerage account can't. Roughly 50 Base apps supported these on day one. Aave and Morpho for lending, Aerodrome for spot trading, Wasabi for options. I.e. you could post your tokenized Nvidia as collateral and borrow against it at 3am on a Sunday, which your broker will absolutely not let you do. As for actual demand on day one, it was modest: Tokens minted: ~$4.55M. Onchain liquidity: ~$3.06M. First 24 hours of trading: $10.8M. Holders of NVDAc, the biggest of the four: 1,745. That's arriving into a tokenized stock market worth $2.48B - one that's nearly doubled since March. Source: RWA & DEX Screener Coinbase turned up last, and smallest, to a party that's been going on for a while. Good news is, this market’s so dang big that I doubt ‘first’ is going to be the deciding factor… THE HIDDEN COST OF SELF-CUSTODY Coldcard users lost over $130M in Bitcoin last month. That's the uncomfortable truth about self-custody: You're responsible for keeping your Bitcoin safe. And if something goes wrong with your wallet, setup, or security, there may be no one to call. That’s where Ledn offers a different approach. They give you an indirect way to get professional, institutional-grade custody. Here’s how your crypto is safe with Ledn : Institutional-grade custody via BitGo Your collateral stays separate ( Ledn can't lend it out on the side) Reserves are independently confirmed every six months With Ledn , professional custody gives you a different layer of infrastructure and security. 👉 See how Ledn stores your BTC. COINBASE PUT NVIDIA ONCHAIN (P2) ⛓️ Right now, Americans can't buy any of these onchain stocks. These tokens are sold under Regulation S, the rule covering securities offered only to non-U.S. buyers. Coinbase asked the SEC for domestic permission back in June 2025 and is still waiting. Which sounds like a handicap, until you look at what sits on the other side of that border. Global stock markets are worth $157.8T, and the U.S. accounts for $68.9T of that. So the slice Coinbase can already sell into is roughly $89T of equities, against $2.48B of tokenized stocks across every issuer combined, with Citi wagering that tokenized securities reach $5.5T by 2030. I.e. There’s plenty of room to grow: Source: SIFMA & RWA Kyle (our Head of Research) has been waiting for someone to build this properly, and I’m going to borrow his take on why the earlier attempts fell short… 24/7 trading is a nice feature, but composability with DeFi is the part that legitimately matters. Tokenized stocks only pull people out of brokerages once they carry the same rights as a brokerage share and let you do more with them than a brokerage allows. Coinbase has both now. Dividends and splits pass through, and Aave, Morpho and Euler will lend against them. Giving a retail investor the ability to borrow, lend and earn against stocks they already own is the thing that will move them onchain. Nothing before this managed to do that without piling on extra risk. The still-yet-to-be-answered question is whether non-crypto people will bother making the move. Kyle's guess is that it takes real incentives, plus a simple way to shift existing holdings across (the way you'd transfer an account between brokers today). Get that part right and it becomes a no-brainer. Which brings us to COIN itself: Kyle's been holding since $35, bought near the last bear market lows, and it's one of his biggest positions. His argument is that Coinbase hands you crypto upside with a floor underneath it: Up 30% this week, against BTC 's 22% and ETH 's 27%. Beat ETH by 3x and BTC by 2x through the last bull market. Revenue from stablecoins, stock trading and prediction markets that don’t swing with crypto prices. Exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum through its balance sheet and Base, plus Solana, Circle, OpenUSD, Hyperliquid's USDC treasury, and a venture arm across the whole industry. The catch being you can't self-custody a share of COIN, and you're trusting Brian Armstrong's team to keep executing. (Kyle's cool with both.) What we’re watching for from here: More TradFi tickers landing onchain within the next few weeks. Whether Coinbase builds that transfer path. The CLARITY Act vote in September. Keep your eyes peeled! Oh, and btw - Kyle publishes every entry and exit with the reasoning attached, before the position moves rather than after. That happens inside Milk Road PRO, which goes from $25/m to $39/m at midnight tonight! Get it before then and lock in lower prices for life! BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD

This bullish setup doesn't come around often. 3 ways to invest in the Everything Bull Market This bullish setup doesn't come around often. Archie Keshan GM. This is Milk Road Stocks, the newsletter that caved to popular demand and gave you one more day of original PRO prices. Milk Road PRO prices increase from $25/m to $39/m at midnight tonight (ET)! This is your last chance to lock in lower PRO prices for life. And before today's edition, a quick detour to private markets. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. 3 WAYS TO INVEST IN THE EVERYTHING BULL MARKET 🤑 On August 5th, we broke down why we believe we’re in the middle of an “Everything Bull Market.” In simple terms, it’s a macro environment where: The economy is growing. Corporate earnings are rising. Inflation is staying under control. That’s about as good as the setup gets for stocks. So today, let’s look at 3 ways to position yourself for the “Everything Bull Market.” 1. Stay in the market The biggest mistake you can make right now is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” entry. Whether you own individual stocks, sector ETFs or broad market indices, the key is to stay allocated. In fact, the two best-performing analysts inside Milk Road PRO currently hold less than 5% of their portfolios in cash. 2. Diversify your portfolio Within the AI buildout, there are three layers of AI you should probably have exposure to: Infrastructure: Memory, neoclouds, power and semiconductors. Models: Companies building the AI models themselves like OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI. Applications: Companies using AI to build products and services. Jensen Huang released an article on March 10th titled “AI is a 5 layer cake” breaking down the various sectors in AI. The point isn't to own everything. It's to avoid having your entire portfolio depend on one company, one sector or one part of the AI trade. Source: LinkedIn 3. Don't panic during pullbacks Even in a bull market, stocks don't go up in a straight line. There will still be corrections. During these times, there will be lots of fear in the market but you can’t let it get to you. In fact, during these pullbacks, it’s a great opportunity to buy the dips in your high-conviction stocks. If you’ve been inside Milk Road PRO , you must have seen all our analysts taking advantage of these dips and growing their portfolio. Bonus point: Don’t do this alone Navigating a bull market is easy when everything is going up. Knowing what to buy, when to take profits and when to buy the dip is the harder part. And that's exactly why we built Milk Road PRO . We have five analysts whose literal job is to study the markets every day and manage their own portfolios based on their individual theses. And so far, those portfolios are already up 30%-40% YTD. Inside PRO, you can see exactly: What our analysts are buying. What they're selling. And, most importantly, why. So if you've been looking for more than just stock tips and want to follow along with how experienced investors are actually managing their portfolios, this is for you. And this is the final day to join at the current price. We originally planned to end this offer yesterday but extended it for one extra day after a lot of readers asked for an extra opportunity. In just a few hours, Milk Road PRO pricing will increase. If you want to lock in the current price, now is your last chance. Join Milk Road PRO at the current price FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road Stocks 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada

United Airlines sees more profitability from Americans abroad. August 26, 2026 PRESENTED BY MIZUHO Good morning. Call him LeBorrower. Two insurers advised by Mark Walter’s Guggenheim Partners loaned former Los Angeles Laker LeBron James nearly $300 million across deals in 2018 and 2022, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. The 2018 bonds, issued by a James-controlled LLC against his assets and future non-NBA earnings, carry a 4.8% interest rate and are due in 2049. For most of 2018, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds was about 3%, putting a roughly 180 basis-point spread between debt issued by Uncle Sam and King James at the time. Ball don’t lie. Walter bought the Lakers last year for $10 billion, but agreed to sell the team for $12.5 billion earlier this month amid reports US officials are investigating whether he improperly used billions in loans from his own insurance companies to finance sports investments. The deal with James, who decamped for the Philadelphia 76ers in July, is unrelated to the investigation, and it’s common for high-net-worth individuals to get cash via loans against their assets because it means they don’t have to sell and can avoid triggering capital gains taxes. What it does show is how money managers like Guggenheim have steered people’s life insurance premiums into unorthodox areas like private credit and sports. Sammons Financial, the owner of the two insurers that lent to James, said Guggenheim selected their portfolio assets until 2021. Thankfully, a LeBron bond, backed by a lifelong sponsorship with Nike among other things, is undoubtedly an investment-grade asset. MARKETS S&P 500 7,677.28 ▲ +0.32% DJI 53,577.40 ▲ +0.30% UAL $117.41 ▲ +3.38% Stock data as of market close on August 25, 2026. CONSUMER Lego Sales Surge as Toymaker Shuns Design Help from AI Photo via AyanoMiura/Ayano Miura/AFLO/Newscom There are way more Legos on the ground ready to inflict pain on feet around the world, with the toymaker reporting yesterday that its revenue surged 21% in the first half of the year. The Danish company’s operating profit jumped 22% as sets designed for both kids and their parents continued to fly off shelves. Lego’s sales growth outpaced the wider US toy market’s, which jumped 17% for its strongest six months in six years, Circana found. Rival toymakers Mattel and Hasbro have also reported sales growth so far this year, but Lego outpaced both. Still, Lego is only human, and it very much intends to stay that way. Its CEO attributes its success, at least in part, to its decision to rely on human creativity in an AI age. AI Just Doesn’t Get It, Says Lego Just like stepping on the sharp blocks is a purely human experience, so too is designing Lego’s brick sets. And that’s intentional . Lego’s data suggests algorithms can’t emotionally or tactilely connect with kids. So the company doesn’t allow AI to help with product design, Lego CEO Niels Christiansen said: Lego’s human designers debuted more than 330 new sets in the first half of this year. The company lets employees use AI for less creative tasks, like admin, with the aim of freeing designers’ time to think about the next botanical set (a string-of-pearls plant maybe?). Competitors, meanwhile, aren’t as AI-averse. Mattel partnered with OpenAI last year to create toys using AI, but in December delayed plans to release any. Hasbro in June launched an AI studio called Sixth Wall, where it’s creating AI versions of characters including Mr. Potato Head (don’t ask him who Andy’s favorite toy is). Lego’s No Luddite: Lego’s not ignoring the digital dimension, however. Its partnership with Fortnite -maker Epic Games brings Lego designs into the video game and Fortnite avatars and items (hello, Lego Supply Llama) into the physical world. The toymaker also launched a digitized version of its plastic blocks this year that uses sensors to react to motion with lights and sounds, like a birthday cake that plays a song when its candles are “blown out.” Written by Jamie Wilde PRESENTED BY MIZUHO Japan’s Growth Revival: Global Investors Take Notice After Decades on the Sidelines Photo via Mizuho Japan’s economy has entered a significant new phase, and global investors continue to spend more time in the region . After 30 years, Japan’s economy has moved from experiencing deflation to inflation, and from stagnation to a booming economy. Wages are up, businesses are increasing returns on invested capital, creating meaningful shareholder value, while Japanese households are shifting money from deposits to investments . For global investors, the changes have created the most compelling opportunity to invest in Japan in decades, with a structural growth story replacing a long-term valuation narrative. While the Japan markets have been admittedly robust, there are still significant areas of uncovered opportunities . Read more. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT Is Netflix Getting Its Groove Back? Netflix stock has tumbled 40% from a peak last summer, but one analyst is arguing that Wall Street, much like the final season of Stranger Things , has officially lost the plot. Shares of the company leapt almost 3% on Tuesday after Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino upped his price target for the company to $95. Supino argued that investors are overreacting to lackluster engagement data sparked by an uncharacteristically soft second-quarter release schedule. And recent reports suggest that Netflix is looking to get more and more premium content on its platform. Third-Party Down Overall viewing hours increased a mere 2% in the first half of the year, Netflix said in its engagement report earlier this summer. That prompted fears that the Binge Watch era will not simply run on auto-play forever, a distressing turn for a streamer that sees advertising as the key to continued growth. Making matters worse, Netflix deepened Wall Street’s fears by cutting its bi-annual engagement reports down to just one a year, and reports surfaced that executives were troubl

Nvidia guidance and inflation data set the next trend. 🚨5 Setups To Watch As Nvidia Reports Earnings Nvidia guidance and inflation data set the next trend. Aug 26 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Bitcoin has cooled a little after pushing through $80,000, with the tape now waiting on the next catalyst rather than chasing the last one. The low-leverage character of the advance is still intact, but the market has shifted into event mode. Today is stacked. Inflation and growth data hit first, then Nvidia reports after the close. A beat is already assumed. What matters is whether guidance, demand, and margins raise the bar again. Soft inflation with growth holding would keep risk assets supported. A hotter print would put yields back in charge. Oil has eased and yields have given back a little of their recent tightness, which helped semis bounce into the event. The bond market remains the referee. Crypto and equities are both waiting for the same two prints to decide whether this stays constructive. Here’s what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Is Bitcoin's surge past $78k a genuine bear-market exit or a bull trap? 🚀 Real macro regime shift 🧱 Rejection at $81.8k 🪤 Short-squeeze bull trap Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Dogecoin (DOGEUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #2 – Flare (FLRUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #3 – Shiba Inu (SHIBUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #4 – Stacks (STXUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #5 – Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) 4-Hour Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. 50% off your first month, USE CODE: terminal ($100 off) Chart #1 – Dogecoin (DOGEUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Dogecoin has faced a sharp rejection following an explosive rally toward the $0.10000 psychological high, breaking down below local consolidation to trade around $0.08684. Functioning as the leading decentralized peer-to-peer meme cryptocurrency utilizing Scrypt proof-of-work consensus for fast and low-cost microtransactions, this short trade setup targets a deeper mean-reversion drop toward the $0.08000–$0.08200 liquidity pocket as long as overhead resistance holds below $0.09000–$0.09300. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.0897 Stop Loss: $0.0933 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.08491 TP2: $0.08032 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Flare(FLRUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Flare has pulled back into key support following a sharp rejection from its recent swing highs near $0.008000, looking to stabilize around $0.006601 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as an EVM-based Layer-1 blockchain optimized for decentralized data acquisition and secure cross-chain interoperability via the Flare Time Series Oracle (FTSO) and State Connector, this long trade setup targets an upward recovery expansion toward the $0.007226 resistance target as long as the $0.005815–$0.006161 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $ 0.0061 Stop Loss: $0.0058 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.0066 TP2: $0.0072 Chart #3 – Shiba Inu(SHIBUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Shiba Inu has faced rejection after forming a lower high following its sharp rally to the $0.00000630 area, breaking down below local consolidation to trade around $0.00000533 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as a decentralized community-led meme ecosystem powered by ShibaSwap, Shibarium Layer-2 network scaling, and expanding utility tokens, this short trade setup targets a deeper mean-reversion drop toward the $0.00000460–$0.00000470 liquidity pocket as long as overhead resistance holds below $0.00000550–$0.00000580. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.00000547 Stop Loss: 0.00000577 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.00000500 TP2: $0.00000450 Chart #4 – Stacks(STXUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Stacks has stabilized following a sharp upward impulse, holding above its newly formed support base at $0.2642 to trade near $0.2798 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as a Bitcoin Layer-2 network that enables smart contracts, decentralized finance, and non-custodial sBTC integration settled directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.3327 resistance target as long as the $0.2415–$0.2642 support shelf holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.2639 Stop Loss: $0.2415 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.2980 TP2: $0.3327 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) ( HOOD refers to the stock of Robinhood Markets, Inc. and not a cryptocurrency.) Robinhood Markets, Inc. has printed a strong bullish impulse off its August base, breaking back above horizontal support near $106.88 to trade around $112.07 on the 4-hour timeframe. Driven by expanding retail trading volumes across equities, options, and cryptocurrencies, alongside growing subscription revenue from Robinhood Gold and high-yield cash sweep balances, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $131.94 resistance level as long as the $98.84–$106.88 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $106 Stop Loss: $98 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $120 TP2: $132 Banter’s Take With inflation and growth data now in the books and Nvidia’s guidance setting a new bar, the market has

Pushing the PRO Price Hike to ONE MORE day. We turned the old Milk Road PRO pricing off last night at 11:59pm. Then we opened our inbox this morning. Big mistake. "I was on a plane, please let me in." "My card declined at 11:52pm. ELEVEN. FIFTY. TWO." "Any chance you'd make an exception for a loyal reader who is also very handsome?" Tons of them. Some polite and some borderline threatening. One guy offered us his dog as collateral. (We're still thinking about it. Cute dog.) So we had a team meeting. It was very serious with lots of nodding. We decided to bring the old Milk Road PRO price back . For one more day (today). $25/month or $250/year, locked in for as long as you stay subscribed. Tonight at 11:59pm ET it ONCE AGAIN becomes $39/month or $399/year, and that is where it lives forever. Lock in $250/year - yours for life Prefer monthly? $25/month locks too . Kyle Reidhead, Co-owner @ Milk Road PS - We’re about to launch a HUGE upgrade to the platform that allows you to connect your brokerage accounts and crypto wallets and track your portfolio all in one place. AND, compare it with the analyst portfolios and get ongoing advice on your portfolio. PRO isn't what it used to be (it's better). Lock in today's prices here . This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada

Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on the US... August 26, 2026 Presented By Ruff. Happy National Dog Day. Here are our five favorite dogs: Air Bud Hot Downward-facing Snoopy Snoop And coming in dead last, Marmaduke . —Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Dave Lozo, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on the US Apple unveiling new Macs Why Coca-Cola is on a hot streak Markets Nasdaq 26,151.3 +0.66% S&P 7,677.28 +0.32% Dow 53,577.4 +0.30% 10-Year 4.639% -6.0 bps Bitcoin $78,906.09 -0.03% Dick’s $124.31 -30.68% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks climbed yesterday as investors looked past the escalating spat between the US and Canada, and toward Nvidia’s earnings later today. Meanwhile, it was a nightmare day for Dick’s Sporting Goods after it lowered the outlook for its Foot Locker business, citing a “challenging athletic footwear and apparel marketplace.” Markets Sponsored by State Street Investment Management Get exposure to hundreds of companies powering America’s economy—all in a single trade, with SPY. Invest in SPY, the original S&P 500 ETF .* Heavy duty Canada strikes back with 50% tariffs on US goods Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Adobe Stock After putting away the carrot and politely excusing themselves from the negotiating table, Canucks reached for the stick. Canada announced tariffs of up to 50% on US exports yesterday to mirror US duties that took effect following the breakdown of trade talks over the weekend. Canada said it’ll tax $20 billion worth of made-in-the-USA goods at 15%, 25%, and 50%, matching US duties dollar for dollar. Going into effect after Labor Day, the tariffs will apply to 700 American products ranging from motorcycles and chainsaws to cheese and frozen octopus. Targeted punches Canada said it aims to protect local businesses that were undermined by US tariffs, and exert pressure on American politicians ahead of the US midterm elections in November. While the tariffs will affect just 7% of US exports to Canada, the products were chosen to target particular industries. For instance, seafood duties are thought to be aimed at exports from Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is campaigning for reelection in a close race. But… commentators noted that Canada’s choice to tariff consumer goods like food and clothes will likely hurt local shoppers, too. Economists expect Canada to suffer more from US tariffs than vice versa, since stateside trade makes up a larger portion of its exports than shipments to Canada do for the US. Cross-border threats continue Yesterday, President Trump floated the idea of renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” saying that he doesn’t anticipate the US doing much business with the eponymous Canadian province. Earlier in the week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he discussed a tax on Canadian power exports to the US with Prime Minister Mark Carney, which could raise electricity prices for Americans. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to double import duties on Canadian cars and trucks to 50%, which could devastate Canada’s auto sector. Still… top Trump administration officials and Carney have said that they’re potentially willing to return to the negotiating table. —SK Sponsored By ElevenLabs When “on hold” gets old Asking customers to “press 1” over and over again hardly feels like an experience. Hang up on the holdups. ElevenAgents helps customers like Klarna, Deutsche Telekom, and SevenRooms build AI agents that talk naturally and actually fix things. Those agents now handle over 10m conversations a week , including refunds, appointment bookings, benefits questions, and flight changes. These agents are designed to sound natural instead of like a recording. Build and run them all in one place instead of using four tools stitched together. Watch their webinar replays to see how leading teams actually deploy AI agents. World Tour de headlines Paul Natkin/Getty Images 💔 Dolly Parton died at 80. “Queen of Country” and 11-time Grammy winner Dolly Parton died yesterday, her family confirmed . No cause of death was revealed, but Parton had abruptly canceled a concert in Las Vegas in May after undergoing treatment for health issues. Over the course of her six-decade career, the iconic “9 to 5” and “Jolene” singer sold more than 100 million records, successfully crossed over into Hollywood to earn multiple Golden Globe nominations, launched a theme park, and inspired countless country artists. She was also known for her philanthropic efforts to improve literacy, inspired by her father, who was illiterate. Her husband of 58 years, Carl Dean, died last year. 😷 Pennsylvania reported two measles deaths. Two unvaccinated people in Lancaster County died from measles, state officials announced yesterday. They were the first measles deaths in the US this year, as well as the first in Pennsylvania in 35 years. The deaths come as the US suffers from its worst measles outbreak since 1991: As of last week, there were 2,777 cases already this year, up from 2,289 last year. Measles had largely been eliminated in the US due to vaccines, but the disease is rising as vaccination rates fall. “People are not familiar with this disease and don’t fully understand the potential severity of the illness,” Pennsylvania’s health secretary said. 🖊️ Bessent’s bond intervention was blasted by his mentor. Anakin Scott, you were the chosen one! In a scathing op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the plan of his protégé, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to buy back $4 billion in government bonds in order to lower soaring borrowing costs. After Bessent’s announcement, bond yields fell temporarily, but they quickly shot up again a day later and have stayed elevated since. “This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management—and a mistake far larger

You have exactly 48 hours to secure the alpha that is dominating this new bull market. Get 247 Research Access for 50% off (Limited to 100 people) You have exactly 48 hours to secure the alpha that is dominating this new bull market. Aug 26 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . The bull market is no longer a theory Bitcoin has climbed roughly 30% in the last seven days. Ethereum has moved even harder. Liquidity is returning, narratives are waking up, and the market that spent months grinding lower has flipped. This is the environment every serious trader waits for , the early phase of a multi-year cycle where positioning and information edge compound the fastest. When the market flips bullish this violently, the biggest risk isn’t downside, it’s the opportunity cost . It’s watching from the sidelines while other people catch the 50%, 60%, and 70% runners because you didn’t have the right alpha. That’s where 247 Research comes in. (Don’t Forget the Discount 50% off) Seven Days. Seven Calls. Seven Wins. I'm going to show you the receipts. Every image below is from the 247 Research Discord. Every call was made in real-time. Every profit was earned by members who were in the room. If 247 Research can do this in Week 1 of a bull market, when liquidity is just starting to flow, when altcoin season hasn't even kicked in, when the retail herd is still asleep, what do you think happens in a BULL RUN. Lucky's HYPE Trade : Trump says HYPE , we are already in and out with +$31,299.32 Ran's ZEC Breakout : Morning call. Clear level. Clean break. +80%. Kapoor's POD Accumulation: It's now up 65% and he's holding until ATH. Ran's SUI Breakout : Same morning call. SUI above $0.95, +45%. Lucky's ENA Swing: +72.2%. Caught every single percentage point. Ran's NEAR Pump : Three breakouts. One night. He sees what others miss. Andrei flags : From the call $VVV ran around 32%. Do the Math Let’s be conservative. If you had followed just half of these calls with modest position sizing: HYPE: +$31K realized POD: +65% spot position ZEC: +80% futures breakout SUI: +45% breakout NEAR: +6.7% in a night ENA: +72.2% full swing VVV: Fundamental gap-up + technical follow-through That’s seven high-conviction calls. Seven winners. In seven days. Now ask yourself: If this is Week 1, what does Year 1 look like? Bull markets don’t last six months. They last 18 to 36 months. The 2020-2021 cycle created generational wealth for people who were positioned before the mania. The people who bought in November 2020 didn’t just make money, they made life-changing money. We’re at that November 2020 moment again. But this time, you have a choice. You can trade alone, scrolling Twitter, trying to separate signal from noise. Or you can join the room where the signal lives. What You Get Inside 247 Research This isn’t a pump group. This isn’t a paid shill factory. This is a premium research terminal disguised as a Discord server. Live morning calls with Ran Neuner and the team Real-time macro analysis , Fed, liquidity, geopolitics Headline trading , Trump tweets, policy shifts, exchange news, before the market moves The 247 Terminal , proprietary tools and scanners Spot and futures calls with clear entries, targets, and risk management A community of serious traders who actually know what they’re doing 4.9/5 rating. 1000+ reviews. The numbers don’t lie. 🎁 First month at 50% off to test-drive the room that just printed seven winners in seven days. Remember this Discount is for 100 people only. FIRST COME FIRST SERVE ! 👉 Join 247 Research No noise. Just alpha. Thanks for reading Good Morning Crypto! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Pledge your support Good Morning Crypto - by Crypto Banter is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Good Morning Crypto - by Crypto Banter that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless they enable payments. Pledge your support Like Comment Restack

Plus: Nvidia's next test | Wednesday, August 26, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Aug 26, 2026 🐪 Wednesday! Stock futures are little changed this morning as investors await the PCE report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, at 8:30am ET. In today's edition: You know how everyone talks about the $1 trillion in AI buildout spending? The number might be three times as big. That's like more than three Elon Musks. Elsewhere in the AI world, Axios' Nathan Bomey has a preview of Nvidia earnings, out after the close today. And stick around for some musing on AI-generated writing by billionaires. Shall we? In 1,161 words, a 4.5-minute read. 1 big thing: A $3 trillion baby By Emily Peck Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios To paraphrase Justin Timberlake in his iconic turn in the 2010 film "The Social Network," a trillion dollars isn't cool. You know what is? $3 trillion. The big picture: That's roughly how much money seven Big Tech companies, including Google, Microsoft and Nvidia, have committed to spending on AI-related infrastructure in off-balance-sheet commitments, according to a new analysis from Morgan Stanley. And that's on top of the estimated $770 billion in debt and lease obligations that are on the balance sheets. Why it matters: The analysis finds that the total amount of spending on AI is much bigger than the already-mind-blowing headlines suggest, and — more of a red flag — it's more leveraged than is perhaps appreciated. How it works: Off-balance-sheet commitments are essentially financial obligations that don't show up in a company's official tally of what it owns and owes — it's not an official debt but an obligation to pay someone something in the future. Zoom in: Morgan Stanley looked at filings from the hyperscalers Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon, as well as the chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom and broke down their off-balance-sheet commitments. The hyperscalers have committed to $1.1 trillion in payments for data center leases that haven't yet begun. All seven companies have also agreed to buy $1.7 trillion of other stuff — purchase commitments for chips, memory and networking gear. These purchase agreements have ramped up this year — Google's commitments totaled $707 billion in the most recent quarter — from $72.5 billion in all of 2025, per the research. Morgan Stanley research Follow the money: This is future revenue for memory chipmakers like Micron Technology and help explain the phenomenal growth in that business. The intrigue: These commitments are a jumping-off point for suppliers and data center developers who take that guarantee of future payments and use it to borrow more. Here's how the researchers explain it: "Suppliers and data center developers can borrow against long-dated leases, guarantees, or purchase commitments from investment grade hyperscalers, allowing capacity to be built before the hyperscalers make any payments or recognize liabilities." Between the lines: What this essentially means is that Big Tech companies with decent credit ratings are leveraging that status to generate an absolute ton of lending that can be difficult to track. Yes, but: Each of these companies is doing slightly different kinds of spending with different levels of risk. And it's not totally clear over what time period that $3 trillion gets spent — or if it gets spent. These are commitments, often contracts, but they could theoretically be renegotiated. What to watch: At some point these obligations will start showing up on official balance sheets. By that time, will these investments be paying off? Timing is the question on investors' minds, says Todd Castagno, head of global valuation, accounting and tax at Morgan Stanley who coauthored the analysis. This is, after all, a new market. "It's like we are developing a car market without ever having seen the capabilities of car before, and everyone's going to get a car — and how do we finance it, and how do we know what that car is worth in five years?" 2. Nvidia takes the spotlight By Nathan Bomey Data: Financial Modeling Prep ; Chart: Jeffrey Cane/Axios Nvidia snapped a seven-day losing streak in the stock market yesterday. But its mini slump has raised questions over the AI darling's growth trajectory. Why it matters: Nvidia is trying to use its massive pile of capital to keep the good times rolling — through a wide assortment of investments and capital deals (see above) — while continuing to feed the growing chip needs of the AI hyperscalers. Zoom in: The company will report second-quarter earnings after the bell today, and investors want to see a blowout performance. Nvidia is expected to book $92.1 billion in revenue for the period, and more than $100 billion in the current third quarter, per S&P Capital IQ estimates. That would be its first 12-digit quarter. Q2 net income is estimated at $51.2 billion, with gross margins at 75%. Friction point: Mounting bipartisan opposition to data centers — many of which draw substantial computing capacity from Nvidia chips — poses a threat to the company's continued momentum. Yes, but: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been moving to use the company's massive balance sheet to invest in AI companies and guarantee financing on deals like a sprawling ChatGPT data center slated for Ohio. "A lot of attention will also be paid to the off-balance-sheet activity," wrote Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, noting that Nvidia has already made 66 investments totaling about $40 billion. Those investments have raised concerns about circular financing posing a systemic threat to the AI economy — concerns that Huang has roundly rejected. The bottom line: The CEO will be under pressure to deliver a rosy outlook at a time when the public's support for AI is wobbling. "This shareholder meeting is now beginning to feel like the old Berkshire Hathaway events where people around the world would hang on every word that Warren Buffett had t

Plus: Dick's foot fault | Tuesday, August 25, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Aug 25, 2026 Tuesday ✅. Today's newsletter is 761 words, a 3-minute read. 📈 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. 🔥 Today's stock spotlight: Nvidia (+2.2%), ending a seven-day losing streak heading into earnings tomorrow afternoon. Check out my preview in tomorrow morning's edition of Axios Markets . 1 big thing: Honda price warning Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios The apparent collapse of the conventional trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada could force Honda to raise prices in the U.S., one of the Japanese automaker's top executives warned. Driving the news: Executive VP Noriya Kaihara said at a news roundtable that "we may have to" raise prices if the U.S. can't reach a new trade deal with Canada. For now, "we are trying to absorb the cost by ourselves or together with our suppliers," he said at the event tied to the Freedom 250 Grand Prix in Washington, D.C. Follow the money: Like most other automakers, Honda relies heavily on the North American supply chain to make the vehicles it sells here. It currently assembles the Civic sedan at a facility in Canada, where it's the second-largest vehicle manufacturer by volume . Honda said in January that it expects to sell 1.43 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2026. 🏛️ What they're saying: "President Trump has always been clear: If you don't want to worry about tariffs, make your product in the USA," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. Yes, but: Honda does make a lot of its cars in the U.S., touting five of the top 10 vehicles on Cars.com's annual American-Made Index this year. Kaihara, whose comments Sunday came before Trump's auto tariff announcement, made it clear that the automaker's plans to build an eighth assembly plant in North America hang in the balance. "If there's no USMCA agreement in the future, then we may have to change our direction," he said. Go deeper 2. Foot fault Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios Dick's Sporting Goods shares cratered today under a pile of marked-down sneakers. An industrywide inventory buildup has triggered widespread discounting in athletic footwear, executives said today, Axios' Pete Gannon writes . That's taken an especially big toll on Foot Locker, the long-struggling sneaker retailer Dick's acquired last year for $2.4 billion. Threat level: "Consumer preferences are evolving" in footwear, Dick's executive chair Ed Stack told analysts. Compounding the problem, there were fewer new sneaker launches in the second quarter — and a lackluster response to the ones that did hit the market. The impact: Foot Locker's same-store sales slipped 3.6% in the second quarter compared to a year ago. Dick's, which had previously guided 1.5%–3% growth in Foot Locker's full-year same-store sales, said it now expects them to be flat to down 2%. Reflecting margin pressure, Dick's cut its own annual operating income guidance to $1.45 billion–$1.55 billion. The bottom of its prior range was $1.68 billion. Dick's shares closed down 30.7%, the largest single-day loss in the company's history, per Bloomberg. 3. Other happenings Photo: Stéphane Mouchmouche/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images 🧱 Lego reported a 22% jump in consumer sales for the first half of the year, buoyed by new product launches and partnerships. ( CNBC ) 🤖 OpenAI executive Chris Malone, who's been overseeing the company's data center build-out, reportedly left the company last week. ( WSJ ) 💍 Oura , the Finnish smart ring maker, will seek to raise up to $3 billion in a U.S. IPO that could come as early as next month. ( Bloomberg ) 🚀 SpaceX is investing $100 billion in a new spaceport in Southwest Louisiana. The facility will be built on a 125,000-acre site and will be the largest spaceport in the world, the company and Gov. Jeff Landry said. ( Axios New Orleans ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Why Media Is Betting Big on Live Experiences Media companies and brands are pouring money into live experiences as digital attention gets harder to capture. In the latest Media Trends Executive deep dive, Sara Fischer and Kerry Flynn examine what's driving the boom – and where risks are emerging: Why consumers keep paying more for premium experiences, even as prices rise. How brands are chasing audiences IRL through experiential marketing and out-of-home advertising. How new event technology is changing the trade-off between security and privacy. 🔒 Get the full analysis – and exclusive intelligence on the forces reshaping media – by becoming a Media Trends Executive member. 4. Uber teen spirit Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios Parents can now get a live look inside the cabin of their teenager's Uber ride. The ridesharing company is introducing a new safety feature that allows parents to watch live video inside the car via the forward-facing cam on the driver's phone. State of play: It's being tested in nine areas and will expand to more markets in the coming weeks. The teen and the driver receive notifications that the parent is watching. Drivers can choose whether to enable the feature but, if they do, they won't be able to see the video. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Why Media Is Betting Big on Live Experiences Media companies and brands are pouring money into live experiences as digital attention gets harder to capture. In the latest Media Trends Executive deep dive, Sara Fischer and Kerry Flynn examine what's driving the boom – and where risks are emerging: Why consumers keep paying more for premium experiences, even as prices rise. How brands are chasing audiences IRL through experiential marketing and out-of-home advertising. How new event technology is changing the trade-off between security and privacy. 🔒 Get the full analysis – and exclusive intelligence on the forces reshaping media – by becoming a Media Trends Executive member. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter mo

Will Congress listen? Byron Gilliam “Let the bond market speak.” — Stanley Druckenmiller The bond market has something to say again Economist Chris Sims describes the Fed’s monetary policy actions in the 1970s as “stepping on a rake.” Three times, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to fight inflation. Three times, inflation was temporarily subdued, only to come back stronger. Sims attributed this to a feedback loop of higher interest rates causing higher deficits causing higher interest rates — a loop that can only be broken when investors believe the government has the will to balance its budget. Otherwise, rate hikes become counterproductively inflationary. “Economic theory makes clear that in an environment of uncertainty about future fiscal policy, monetary policy instruments may lose potency or have perverse effects,” Sims explained. Case in point: Fed Chair Paul Volcker appeared to have conquered inflation when his rate hikes got CPI to fall from 14% in 1980 to 3% in 1983. But the market was unconvinced: The yield on 30-year Treasurys in 1983 was 11% . Long-term interest rates remained eight percentage points above inflation because investors were sure the government’s annual deficit of $200 billion would cause inflation to come roaring back — another rake handle to the face. Capturing the mood, economist Ed Yardeni coined the term “Bond Vigilantes” that same year. “If the fiscal and monetary authorities won't regulate the economy,” he wrote, “the bond investors will.” By keeping Treasury yields so far above inflation, the bond market was effectively demanding that the US government get its fiscal house in order. It worked. To bring interest rates down, Ronald Reagan raised taxes, cut spending, and raised the retirement age for Social Security. George Bush signed a law — PAYGO — dictating that any new entitlement spending or tax cuts had to be fully offset by spending cuts or tax increases elsewhere. Bill Clinton raised taxes on Social Security and cut spending on Medicare. As a result, the US government ran an annual surplus in 1999, its first since 1969. The fiscal discipline was expected to continue. In 2001, Alan Greenspan reported to Congress that “the highly desirable goal of paying off the federal debt is in reach before the end of the decade.” Perhaps predictably, that turned out to be the high-water mark for fiscal responsibility in the US. The federal government has not run a surplus since. How did the Vigilantes let this happen? Bond Vigilantes are not real, unfortunately, so we can’t ask them what they were thinking. But the collective behavior of bond investors changed in ways that suggest the market became sanguine about government budget deficits. Some combination of a global savings glut, a lack of investing alternatives, the rise of price-insensitive buyers (like China), and a deep faith in the Fed kept bond yields low despite ever-rising deficits. The change is easy to see: Before 2010, bond investors demanded yields far above inflation; afterward, they settled for yields at or below it. The Vigilantes were taking a “long siesta,” Yardeni wrote in 2023. Another factor was investors’ lived experience. In response to the Great Financial Crisis, the Obama administration borrowed $800 billion to support the economy and the Bernanke Fed printed $1.7 trillion to support markets. Somehow, inflation went down. In June 2015, US CPI was -0.23%. Deficits rose. Inflation fell. Concern evaporated. Increasingly, it was only economic think tanks, gold bugs, and Bitcoiners left to warn us about the dangers of deficit spending. Until now. With long-dated Treasury yields hitting 20-year highs this week, the Bond Vigilantes appear to be waking up from their two-decade slumber. Can the Fed do something? When Paul Volcker took the fed funds rate all the way up to 20%, the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP was roughly 30%. Today, it’s 100%. This makes the feedback loop of higher interest rates leading to larger deficits leading to higher interest rates turn much faster. Every rate hike, designed to cool demand, instead injects billions in interest income into the economy, turning an ostensible monetary tightening into fiscal stimulus. With the US government now spending over $1 trillion servicing its debt each year, Chris Sims’ proverbial rake handle will hit us in the face pretty much instantaneously. The Fed, in other words, can do little if anything about inflation. That leaves the job to Congress — which is not interested in doing it. There is no political will — on either side of the aisle — to return to the 1990s playbook of placating bond markets with some combination of higher taxes and lower spending. What’s changed? 25 years of low inflation, political polarization, and economic disinformation appear to have undermined the government’s ability to make hard choices. Few of today’s voters believe they should pay more in taxes, especially when it’s in the name of lowering interest rates. And there are not nearly enough billionaires to raise taxes on to make much of a difference. There is no longer a constituency for lower spending, either — perhaps because the single largest contributor to federal spending is “payments to individuals.” Good luck to the politician who proposes reducing their constituents' Social Security or Medicare payments. Unless voters have a change of heart, there seems little chance of Congress doing anything about the deficit (and therefore inflation). Can AI do something? The federal debt is so big — $40 trillion now — it’s become demotivating. Why take the political risks or make the economic sacrifices for something that feels like an exercise in futility? But maybe we could grow our way out of it? AI raises the beguiling prospect of a painless fix: If LLMs increase productivity sufficiently, government revenue might increase so rapidly that no taxes need be raised or spending cut. Alas, a recent paper suggests this is more hope than strategy. If AI