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Zbieżność czasowa, nie dowód przyczyny — sprawdź sam.
The US added more jobs than expected last month... September 05, 2026 Presented By Welcome to the long weekend! We’ll be in your inbox tomorrow with a Sunday Special, but we’re taking a break on Monday to consume as many hot dogs as possible while wearing white shoes before the season ends. But you won’t have to miss us too much—we’ll be back with a newsletter on Tuesday morning. —Sam Klebanov, Molly Liebergall, Dave Lozo, Matty Merritt, Holly Van Leuven, Abby Rubenstein In today’s newsletter, we’ll look at: The US adding more jobs than expected last month Record-breaking diesel prices A brazen theft of beer Markets Nasdaq 26,506.99 -0.29% S&P 7,718.6 -0.38% Dow 53,414.25 -0.51% 10-Year 4.784% +2.0 bps Bitcoin $79,757.55 -2.26% Lululemon $100.61 -17.38% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks were back in “good news is bad news” territory yesterday, falling as investors digested the news that the US added more jobs than expected in August, potentially making the Fed more likely to hike rates (more on that below). Stock spotlight: Lululemon did a downward-facing dog after cutting its revenue and profit guidance and reporting disappointing Q2 sales. GREAT JOB There’s surprising good news about the job market Francis Scialabba August blindsided everyone, and not just by how fast summer ended: The US added 162,000 jobs last month, according to government data released yesterday. That’s more than triple the number that economists polled by Dow Jones predicted. Plus, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the share of Americans who gave up on looking for work or worked part time due to a lack of full-time options dropped slightly. Unlike in prior months, the job gains weren’t mostly in healthcare: Restaurants and bars added 59,000 workers. Construction and manufacturing payrolls grew by 22,000 and 16,000, respectively, while public schools gained 42,000 employees, rebounding from July’s decline. But the information sector—which includes tech jobs—shed 23,000 workers, which some analysts said could reflect AI automating white-collar work. Overall: After job growth was revised upward by a total of 55,000 for the previous two months, the US added an average of 80,000 jobs monthly so far in 2026—an improvement from less than 10,000 per month last year, but below the pace of hiring in 2023 and 2024. It’s not all rosy: Inflation outpaced the yearly wage growth, which slowed to 3.1%, down from 3.7% pay growth a year ago. Stronger case to hike interest rates Analysts say that now that the job market looks healthier, the Fed will focus on inflation data due next week as it mulls whether to hike interest rates at its next meeting on Sept. 16. Wall Street thinks a rate hike has become more likely: The trading odds of a rate hike increased from 49% to 59% yesterday. The 2-year Treasury bond yield—which is closely correlated with the interest rates the Fed sets—also rose yesterday. But President Trump issued a blistering threat… that if the Fed doesn’t react to the employment rebound by slashing interest rates, he’ll end trade with nations that have a trade deficit with the US—a long list that includes the EU and China. —SK Sponsored By Doroni The tech making this flying car company soar Tesla’s software made them more valuable than the rest of the automotive industry combined—and a company investors couldn’t get enough of. Doroni’s using that same playbook to capture the rapidly growing flying car industry Morgan Stanley projects will hit 9 trillion by 2050. Their SOUL AI™ software makes piloting their flying car, the H1-X, so intuitive that anyone could potentially pilot it with just 25 hours of training. It monitors every flight in real time, even automatically guiding landings and rerouting around bad weather. They have 600+ preorders and over 15k investors already backing them . Now, Doroni’s targeting commercial deliveries for 2028. And with the FAA’s recently updated regulations clearing a path for Doroni, the timing’s right. Invest today for bonus shares . World Tour de headlines Brandon Bell/Getty Images ⛽ US diesel prices hit a record high. US diesel prices reached an all-time high of $5.85 per gallon yesterday, as the Iran war continues to drive up energy costs. Diesel is most commonly used in the US by commercial vehicles, including trucks and trains. But those increased fuel costs impact consumer goods by upping the transportation costs for items like groceries and packages ordered online, resulting in higher prices. Gasoline prices have also been rising, though not as quickly as diesel prices. Gas cost an average of $4.15 a gallon as of yesterday—and has never before cost more than $4 on Labor Day, per AAA. ⚖️ Mistrial declared in Lindsay Clancy murder case. The trial of Clancy—who killed her three children in 2023 in what the defense claimed was postpartum psychosis and prosecutors claimed was intentional murder— ended in a mistrial yesterday, after the jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on their seventh day of deliberations. The judge, who refused to remove what the jury foreperson reportedly described as the lone juror holding out against an acquittal, gave the defense a brief opportunity to appeal to a higher court, but declared a mistrial when the appeal was rejected. Prosecutors will now have to decide whether to retry the high-profile case, and Clancy is likely to remain institutionalized for now. 🏀 Controversial WNBA commissioner to retire. The basketball league said yesterday that its commissioner, Cathy Engelbert, will retire at the end of this year. Her successor has not yet been named. Engelbert, who was the league’s first commissioner, oversaw a period of major growth for women’s basketball during her seven years at the helm, with viewership skyrocketing and an expansion of the number of teams in the league. The average value of a WNBA franchise was $10 million in 2019—now,
Hi Axios Macro subscriber, I'm Neil Irwin from Axios Macro. I noticed that you haven't been opening our newsletters in a while. We want to respect your inbox, so starting tomorrow we'll stop sending you Axios Macro. Want to keep getting Axios Macro? Just click the button below: Keep me on the list You'll still receive any other Axios newsletters you're subscribed to. If you have any questions, please reach out to newsletters@axios.com . Thank you for subscribing to Axios, Neil PO Box 101060 Arlington VA 22201 PO Box 101060 Arlington VA 22201 Facebook X Instagram LinkedIn Facebook X Instagram LinkedIn
Tesla debuts its long-awaited robotaxi... September 04, 2026 Presented By Happy Friday. Miley Cyrus revealed she is dropping her last name and will henceforth be known professionally as just “Miley.” And so we have decided to do the same. Dibs on all these names: —Molly, Sam, Matty, Dave, Adam, Holly, Neal In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: Tesla’s Cybercab update Nvidia giving Hugging Face a $13 billion embrace Gen Z’s lack of interest in Burning Man Markets Nasdaq 26,584.06 +1.40% S&P 7,747.71 +1.06% Dow 53,686.11 +1.18% 10-Year 4.762% -3.0 bps Bitcoin $81,605.06 +5.46% Campbell’s $22.13 -6.96% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks zoomed to their best day in a month after Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller suggested he could vote to hold interest rates steady at this month’s meeting. Meanwhile, Campbell’s dipped after the struggling soupmaker said it was cutting 13% of its workforce. SHINY NEW THING Tesla debuts the robotaxi of its anti-Waymo dreams Jay Janner/Getty Images Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised nearly a decade ago that his everyday electric vehicles were on the verge of driverless capabilities. So far, no dice, but yesterday in Austin, Texas, his company introduced the vehicle that might mark another step in that direction. Hello, Cybercab: Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi is a matte gold, steering-wheel-free, pedal-less two-seater with butterfly doors—a design that was initially unveiled two years ago. Musk said at the event that Cybercab’s cost “is probably going to be around 20 cents a mile. And the price, including taxes and everything else, probably ends up being 30 or 40 cents a mile. And you will be able to buy one.” The vehicle isn’t available for purchase yet. Yesterday’s launch event signified the Cybercab’s official addition to Tesla’s robotaxi fleet, which otherwise consists of Model Ys. Growing that bunch of unsupervised (aka fully autonomous) vehicles is “key for the stock to outperform through year-end,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote ahead of the event. It’s also key for Tesla’s long-term future In its broader ambitions to refocus its business around self-driving cars and robotics, Tesla hopes to overtake Waymo as the king of the driverless hill. It’s fighting that battle at a steep incline: Waymo’s ~4,000 driverless vehicles operate in 14 US cities, making it the largest fleet of self-driving cars in the country. Tesla’s robotaxi business , which operates in Florida and Texas (with Arizona and Nevada coming soon), “has been extraordinarily difficult to nail down,” per The Verge. Tallies vary, but one tracker pegs Tesla’s fleet of unsupervised cabs at ~200. “Longer term, the software is the most important piece,” a senior Morningstar analyst wrote about Tesla ahead of the Cybercab launch. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving product relies on cameras, while Waymos use a costlier trio of lidar, radar, and cameras. Some Tesla engineers previously worried that without sensors, Tesla’s self-driving system could get thrown off by camera-obscuring weather. Regardless of Wall Street’s reaction to Cybercab, Tesla still has to win over the public. Its driver-assist systems have been linked to thousands of crashes and dozens of deaths. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is currently investigating the EV-maker over potential automated driving defects, and said yesterday that it was “in contact with Tesla and is evaluating the situation” with Cybercab, as it’s hit the road in Austin without features the agency typically requires. —ML Sponsored By The Wall Street Journal Know the room before the meeting Somewhere out there, your next client is reading today’s Journal, the same story your team will get asked about in tomorrow’s meeting. A Corporate WSJ + Barron’s + MarketWatch Digital Bundle makes sure everyone walks in already knowing : WSJ for the story, Barron’s for the market angle, and MarketWatch for the numbers. It’s the difference between “let me get back to you” and actually running the room. Finance will like it too. One corporate plan costs 50%+ less than a pile of individual subscriptions, with one invoice and central admin. 3,500+ companies already give their teams the edge. Yours shouldn’t be playing catch-up . World Tour de headlines Thomas Fuller/Getty Images 🤖 OpenAI rolled out its latest model, GPT-6 Astra. “Welcome to the AGI era,” OpenAI President Greg Brockman told reporters yesterday, referring to artificial general intelligence, aka AI that can outperform humans at most tasks. According to the company, Astra is its fastest and most accurate model yet—and also its most powerful in cybersecurity. For that reason, OpenAI is initially rolling it out only to users in its Daybreak program, before launching a version with additional safeguards for paid subscribers. The release comes amid growing concern with AI’s cybersecurity capabilities, after two OpenAI models escaped their sandbox to hack Hugging Face servers. —AE 🔌 Several chatbots went down in a major outage. If you’re an office worker using AI to process invoices or a college freshman using it to write your Animal Behavior essay, you may have hit a roadblock yesterday. Most major chatbots—including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, and SpaceX’s Grok—were down for many users to varying degrees yesterday. It’s unclear what caused the outages, but Mashable noted that it’s unusual for several AI services to go down at the same time. Service had been restored to all of the chatbots as of yesterday afternoon. —AE 🇳🇵 Two trapped workers rescued alive from hydropower tunnel in Nepal. Two men identified as a mechanical foreman and a mechanical supervisor were rescued Friday morning local time from the Trishuli 3A hydropower project, according to officials, nine days after deadly flooding struck the Himalayan region and left thousands of people dead or missing. A spokesperson for the
Plus: Gold on the move | Friday, September 04, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 04, 2026 🥳 Happy Friday! And it's not just a Friday — it's Jobs Friday, with the latest report on the U.S. employment situation in August due out at 8:30am in New York. 🫓 Ahead of those numbers, though, things are pretty dull out there, with S&P 500 futures, oil prices and bond yields little changed. Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, is weighing whether to sharply reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, part of a trend that Matt recently noted . Oh, just a reminder: We will be heading out for the long Labor Day weekend and back in your inbox Tuesday morning. We hope you enjoy the last gasp of summer. Tally ho! In 1,065 words, a 4-minute read. 1 big thing: End of an era By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet, Axios It used to be that if yields on U.S. government bonds were rising, you could pretty much assume that stocks would be on the upswing, too. Not anymore. Why it matters: When such longstanding market relationships — known on Wall Street as "correlations" — change, it often mirrors adjustments in investor thinking that can set markets on a new course. The big picture: For much of the last 20 years or so, it made sense that bond yields and stock prices tended to go up and down together. That's because bond yields were essentially being driven by the outlook for the U.S. economy. When yields were rising — such as during the early 2000s — it largely signaled strong economic growth. In such an environment — when corporate profits could be expected to be strong too — owning stocks makes sense. Voilà, stocks rose with bond yields. On the other hand, when bond yields were falling during the financial crisis, the drop reflected panic about the safety of the financial system and what that might mean for the economy. That's a bad environment for stocks. So stocks fell with bond yield s. The latest: Things have been a lot different of late. On days when bond yields have risen — due to the worsening war, rising oil prices, confusion over the direction of the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh and any other number of reasons — stocks have been more likely than not to fall. In fact, this negative correlation — Wall Street's term of art for markets that typically move in opposite directions — between changes in the S&P 500 and changes in the yield on the 10-year note has grown increasingly strong, with some readings of negative correlations hitting some of their most extreme levels in decades in recent months. What they're saying: So what's going on? There are a few different interpretations. The correlation breakdown could reflect the new global economic reality of scarcity since the COVID pandemic hit, from the wars in Ukraine and Iran to the relentless demand for AI computing power. All result in higher pressure on prices, regardless of growth. In other words, high yields might not be saying much about whether the economy looks very strong, and therefore might mean it isn't a good time to buy stocks. As BlackRock chief investment strategist Wei Li put it in a recent column for the Financial Times : "What looks like a breakdown in the historical correlation between them may simply reflect a different macroeconomic regime." "When U.S. 10-year yields exceed 5% ... the correlation tends to be negative, meaning that higher bond yields are generally associated with lower stock prices," Scotiabank analysts wrote. "This was broadly the case from the late 1960s through the late 1990s." Growing uncertainty around U.S. government policy, meanwhile, could be playing a role in the breakdown of the relationship, Morgan Stanley analysts recently suggested. They spotlighted the Treasury Department's unusual recent intervention in the Treasury bond market , while doing little to control the growth of the federal debt . The breakdown of the yield-stock correlation was reminiscent of the market reaction to President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025, when both stocks and bonds were rattled, they noted. "Investors began to grapple with whether the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries are still safe havens," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote of the 2025 episode. "We think that investor debate is once again on the table." A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Peek inside the forces reshaping health care with Axios Future of Health Care 2. The Dutch are moving gold out of the U.S. By Emily Peck Data: World Gold Council ; Chart: Emily Peck/Axios The Dutch central bank said this week that it was shifting about 86 tonnes of gold bars out of New York and Canada and moving them closer to home. Why it matters: Countries are rethinking where they stash their gold reserves, as relations with the United States have frayed and geopolitical unrest has risen. The move comes at a time when the status of the U.S. at the center of the world financial system is in question. Foreign governments also now hold a much lower share of U.S. Treasury bonds . Zoom in: The Dutch central bank doesn't mention any concerns with the U.S. in its press release . It said the move was meant to strengthen its crisis preparedness. "Improving the tradability of Dutch gold, and thereby how quickly the gold can be deployed in crisis situations, is part of this," the bank said in a statement. "At the same time, a more balanced distribution of the gold stock between North America, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands helps to spread risks." By the numbers: Not all of the gold bars physically move across the ocean. 59 tonnes were sold in New York, and then the central bank repurchased the precious metal in London. More than 27 tonnes were physically moved to the Dutch vault in Zeist. Before the transfer, about 30% of the Dutch gold reserves were held in New York. Now it's about 18%. London's vault now holds about 30%, up from 18%, per the release. Zoom out: Since the U.S. and its European allies froze about $300 billion in Russian central bank as
Plus: Private credit’s redemption reckoning returns. September 4, 2026 Good morning and happy Friday. On Thursday morning, the world partied like it was 2019. Peace and harmony nearly broke out as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, xAI’s Grok, and several other artificial intelligence platforms suffered outages around the same time. “For a brief moment, millions of people had to use their brains again,” technology journalist Paris Marx joked in a social media post. While the cause was unclear and may not be uniform, Microsoft’s Azure cloud service also saw a spike in reported outages. Most AI services were restored and operating normally by the afternoon. But, for that fleeting moment, the title of world’s greatest authority on knowledge belonged not to a chatbot, but once again to your unemployed friend from college who edits 700 Wikipedia articles a day. Tomorrow, we can go back to worrying about the singularity. MARKETS S&P 500 7,747.71 ▲ +1.06% DJI 53,686.11 ▲ +1.18% METL $28.69 ▲ +1.32% *Presented by Sprott. Stock data as of market close on September 3, 2026. METL turned one. See what a year of active picks delivered. *Please see important METL disclosures below. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Nvidia Raises Bet on Open-Source AI With $13B Hugging Face Deal Photo via Clement Delangue/X It’s a match made in momentum trade heaven: AI’s biggest infrastructure provider is about to get its hands on AI’s biggest collection of open-source roadmaps. On Thursday, Nvidia confirmed reports that it would acquire Hugging Face, a.k.a. “The GitHub of AI,” in a deal valued at a whopping $13 billion. It’s the latest (and perhaps greatest) expression of Nvidia’s strategy to promote an open-source AI ecosystem. “Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in an X post announcing the deal. An Offer They Can’t Refuse Nothing stays the same for long in the AI world. According to sources who spoke to the Financial Times for a story in January , Hugging Face last year rejected a $500 million investment offer from Nvidia, a cash infusion that would’ve come with a $7 billion valuation and amounted to more than the start-up had raised in its more than 10-year history. But the company told the FT it did not want to exist under the influence of a single “dominant” investor. By this summer, the deal tables had turned, and it was Hugging Face that approached Nvidia, Hugging Face CEO Clément Delangue said on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Thursday. So what changed? First, the company employed open-source AI models to ward off a swarm of rogue (and proprietary) OpenAI agents that were trying to access the vast Hugging Face repository of open-source AI models, applications and datasets. Then, “we realized that Hugging Face and open source AI in general was at the turning point, and that it needed more, more resources, more scale, more visibility,” Delangue said. Nothing pushes an indie developer into the open arms of Big Tech like a cyberattack ripped straight out of Neuromancer . For Nvidia, the deal marks another salvo in a simmering cold war with its biggest clients: By pushing cheaper open-source models, Nvidia can pull value away from expensive proprietary models like Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s and toward its own hardware, analysts told The Daily Upside. That may dent the resources that major models could use to develop their own in-house chips to replace Nvidia. And as its biggest customers increasingly develop their own in-house chip designs, open-source could help Nvidia diversify its customer base. “Open models let startups, businesses, universities and public institutions build on advanced capabilities without training every model from scratch,” Huang said Thursday. Carolina on My Mind: The Hugging Face acquisition wasn’t Nvidia’s only win this week. Huang also attended a summit at the Chapel Hill campus of the University of North Carolina, where AI industry leaders successfully lobbied representatives from G20 nations to back a light-touch AI regulatory framework dubbed The Carolina Principles. How’s that for a group hug? Written by Brian Boyle FINANCE Blackstone Private Credit Fund Caps Withdrawals in Fresh Test for Strained Market Investors are once again learning the hard way that when a fund is semi-liquid, the operative part of the term is semi . On Thursday, Blackstone continued to cap withdrawals from its $77.2 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED) as requests to pull money just keep rolling in. In the third quarter, investors requested withdrawals of 10% of the fund’s shares, according to a regulatory filing. That marks the second quarter in a row requests have hit that level. But investors won’t be getting their hands on as much as they’re asking for, which would amount to $4.3 billion in equity. Blackstone said it would limit withdrawals to 5% of the fund’s shares, which is typical for these types of semi-liquid funds. Cash Crunch For years, private credit was primarily available only to institutional investors. But as retail investors grew hungry for investments outside of traditional stocks and bonds, alternative asset managers, seeing a massive new pool of potential investors, were eager to oblige. Wealthy individuals could get exposure to private credit without completely locking up their money via semi-liquid funds. Now, we may be seeing the end of the retail liquidity illusion, in part because of concern that AI disruption could hurt many of the software companies that private credit funds lend to. Tack on the fact that private credit valuations are often opaque and you can see why investors are nervous and eager to get their money back. In the second quarter, BCRED fulfilled roughly half of its redemption requests, leaving a backlog of $2.3 billion in unfulfilled requests, many of which were resubmitted in the third quarter, per the filing. Blackstone isn’t alone: Bloomberg reported th
Oil Wars And Government Shutdowns Ignite The Crypto Breakout The Perfect Macro Storm Is Fueling Bitcoin’s Violent Rise Oil Wars And Government Shutdowns Ignite The Crypto Breakout Sep 4 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors Oil power is moving in the background. US diesel is tight, Venezuela barrels are being redirected, and Chinese shipments from Caracas have fallen to zero. Geopolitical risk now shows up in product markets first. The front of the book is Bitcoin. Price jumped from roughly $77,300 to a $82,179 high, then digested just above $81,000. Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Wintermute, and whales absorbed tens of thousands of coins into the squeeze. Liquidations hit $568 million. That leaves short liquidity sitting right overhead at $82,000–$83,000. Standard Chartered’s new UAE spot desk puts Gulf capital on a regulated rail. Fed policy is easier at the margin. Equities and semiconductor stocks caught some of the same bid. Then the House canceled late-September votes and delayed CLARITY. Our crypto market analysis still treats $80,500 as the line that keeps this squeeze alive. Here’s what our desk is watching. TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register il Prices, Geopolitical Risk, And Fiscal Chaos Global energy markets are fracturing under the weight of severe supply crunches. The global diesel market is currently facing a massive, localized supply shortage. This squeeze hits exactly as the peak seasonal demand period begins. Refiners are actively struggling to keep pace with baseline global consumption. Geopolitical risk is violently repricing major commodity benchmarks across the board. The Kobeissi Letter recently highlighted the critical nature of these inventory drains. Washington is aggressively countering this supply shock with new geopolitical maneuvers. The United States just secured a major deal for Venezuelan oil. This physical supply pivot matters heavily for broad macro trading strategies. China is notably missing out on this specific Venezuelan oil deal, shifting regional dominance. Controlling energy output is just as important as printing fiat dollars. Rising oil prices will inevitably dictate the trajectory of the next inflation print. Meanwhile, domestic political chaos is actively brewing in Washington. The US House just unexpectedly canceled the final two weeks of its September session. Lawmakers are fleeing early, drastically accelerating the timeline for a potential government shutdown. Markets absolutely hate sudden fiscal uncertainty when underlying liquidity is thin. Investors are actively pulling capital from speculative equities ahead of this fiscal cliff. We expect this disruption to inject severe volatility into traditional markets. The Bitcoin Squeeze cause Liquidation Bitcoin is currently experiencing a violent recovery, fueled by massive institutional spot bids. Huge whales and corporations are buying millions of dollars in spot BTC. The aggressive accumulation recently pushed the local price structure to $82,000. Our crypto market analysis reveals a highly engineered liquidity hunt underway. The recent short squeeze wiped out leveraged bearish positions across the board. According to Standard Chartered, this move eliminated billions of dollars in trapped short-term interest. Our desk is currently heavily focused on the upside liquidity clusters. The primary short liquidity pool is currently between $82,000 and $83,000. Price action acts as a magnetic force in these leveraged liquidation zones, revealing a clear Fair Value Gap directly below. Here's the raw data that shapes our immediate upside targets: Standard Chartered is closely monitoring the current liquidity dynamics. Major whales stepped in, boosting the price to $82,000. Short liquidity is firmly in the $82,000-$83,000 range. Long-term spot holders are experiencing rapid supply exhaustion. Massive upside option strikes act as a gravitational pull. This strength in digital assets stands in stark contrast to the weakness of the traditional technology sector. We see any short-term dip as a structural buying opportunity. Bitcoin is actively absorbing speculative capital fleeing the larger technology sector. The exit from overvalued technology is directly fueling the cryptocurrency breakout. Fed Policy, Altcoins, And On-Chain Data The US is quietly but aggressively betting on digital dollars. Washington recognizes that dollar hegemony requires technological modernization in order to survive globally. Stablecoins are rapidly emerging as the preferred vehicle for offshore dollar demand. This shift significantly alters Fed policy and future liquidity cycles. Tokenized fiat brings unprecedented transparency to global dollar liquidity flows. Central bankers are effectively using blockchain technology to maintain their monetary monopoly. Traditional markets are also preparing to operate 24 hours per day. Major legacy exchanges are preparing to match cryptocurrency's 24/7 trading models. The seamless integration of traditional finance necessitates a universally accepted digital settlement layer. Paul White Gold Eagle @PaulGoldEagle RIPPLE CEO SAYS #XRP WILL REPLACE SWIFT IN MOVING $1.25 QUADTRILLION DOLLARS ACROSS THE WORLD. CTF TOKEN, THE
Risk Assets Are Under Fire 🚨5 Setups To Watch As BTC Breaks Above 82000 Risk Assets Are Under Fire Sep 4 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Overnight the US and Iran traded fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran answering across the Gulf. Traditional markets woke up to that flare-up on top of a deepening global bond sell-off and another weak session for equities after Wall Street closed lower to start September. The story is no longer Fed commentary. It is yields breaking out across the US, Europe and Japan at the same time crude stays bid on supply risk. Stocks are fading into a historically soft month, hike odds are rising, and bitcoin is trading with risk, not against it, as the latest hostilities hit. Sticky inflation plus an energy shock is still the tax on duration and risk assets. When sovereign bonds buckle, capital usually reaches for scarcity; today that bid is pausing while gold and crypto digest the same tape. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Bond markets across 22 economies are under stress. How do central banks resolve the debt trap? 🖨️ Debt monetization / QE 🛑 Forced austerity 💥 Broader liquidity crunch Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Ripple(XRPUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #2 – Pump(PUMPUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #3 – Filecoin (FILUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #4 – Cronos(CROUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #5 – Robinhood (HOOD) 4-Hour Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. 50% off your first month, USE CODE: terminal ($100 off) Chart #1 – Ripple(XRPUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Bitway has concluded its post-spike consolidation range and pushed above the $0.42938 shelf, currently holding gains around $0.44268 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as an enterprise-grade digital asset infrastructure and multi-chain payment custody protocol facilitating high-throughput transactions and settlement integrations, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.60819 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.37603–$0.42938 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.4293 Stop Loss: $0.3760 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.5134 TP2: $0.9083 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Pump(PUMPUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Pump has printed a lower-high rejection along a descending intraday trendline following a retest of the $0.0450–$0.0460 zone, breaking down to trade around $0.004327 on the 4-hour timeframe. Serving as the native ecosystem asset tied to Solana's prominent token launchpad and meme-coin generation platform pump.fun, this short trade setup targets an extended mean-reversion drop toward the $0.003300–$0.003400 liquidity basin as long as overhead resistance holds below $0.004700–$0.005150. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.00 469 Stop Loss: $0.00517 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.00395 TP2: $0.00329 Chart #3 – Filecoin (FILUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Filecoin has faced rejection after tapping the $0.8400 resistance area, printing consecutive lower-high candles and breaking down below local consolidation to trade around $0.7762 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as a decentralized, peer-to-peer storage network built on IPFS that allows participants to store, retrieve, and compute over digital data with cryptographic proofs of storage. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.7911 Stop Loss: 0.8243 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.7385 TP2: $0.6995 Chart #4 – Cronos(CROUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Cronos (CRO) has formed a higher-low reversal following a sweep of its local lows near $0.05300, breaking back above the $0.05574 horizontal pivot to trade around $0.05798 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as the native utility and settlement token of the Cronos blockchain and Crypto.com ecosystem—powering decentralized finance applications, EVM interoperability, and payment integrations—this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.06457 resistance target as long as the $0.05282–$0.05574 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.0557 Stop Loss: $0.0528 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.0595 TP2: $0.0645 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Robinhood (HOOD) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) ( HOOD refers to the stock of obinhood Markets, Inc. and not a cryptocurrency.) Robinhood has staged an aggressive breakout above its multi-week resistance shelf, clearing the $112.07 pivot with strong upward momentum to trade around $124.72 on the 4-hour timeframe. Operating as a retail-focused financial services platform facilitating commission-free trading across equities, options, and cryptocurrencies alongside cash management and margin lending solutions, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $153.59 resistance target as long as the $100.37–$112.07 breakout base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $112 Stop Loss: $100 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $129 TP2: $153 Banter’s Take Geopolitical instability and a breaking sovereign bond landscape have shifted the narrative from simple Fed commentary to a genuine debasement trade. While traditional yields buckle and gold retraces, Bitcoin is aggressively decoupling, absorbing liquidity on pure spot accumulation to defy hist
AMC’s not stoked about its tokenized stock... 🥛 Robinhood gets a cease n’ desist 🎬 AMC’s not stoked about its tokenized stock... Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that's your extra set of eyes in crypto. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ AMC's CEO hit Robinhood w/ a cease n’ desist. 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The Crypto Bull Market May Be Starting Earlier Than Anyone Expected . 🍪 OKX just launched an onchain operating system for AI agents. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. AMC'S CEO HIT ROBINHOOD W/ A CEASE N’ DESIST 🎬 AMC's CEO Adam Aron spent yesterday publicly demanding that Robinhood kill its AMC tokenized stock. Right now, AMC is worth about $2.6B, while its tokenized equivalent on Robinhood Chain is worth ~$2.8M (essentially a rounding error). Yet Adam is calling his list of concerns "almost existential." So what’s all the hubbub about? Let’s start with the mechanics… Robinhood's stock tokens aren't actually shares in anything. They're tokenized debt securities issued by Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Limited, an offshore affiliate parked on a small island off the coast of France. Each one tracks the price of a stock - but that’s about it. It gives the holder no ownership in the underlying company, no voting rights, no dividends… And as we mentioned up top, they’re (currently) tiny by comparison: Sources: AMC market cap at Friday's premarket price, token value per onchain data. They're also unregistered under U.S. securities law, which is why they can't be sold to U.S., Canadian, U.K. or Swiss residents. And that comes straight from Robinhood's own website, which is exactly where Aron got his ammunition. His first argument is about the cost. AMC spends millions every year complying with those investor-protection rules, while Robinhood issues its version ~3,000 miles offshore and skirts that same compliance requirement. But compliance isn't the part keeping him up at night... FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. AMC'S CEO HIT ROBINHOOD W/ A CEASE N’ DESIST (P2) 🎬 Issuing new stock is how AMC has been patching up its balance sheet for a while now. Adam says synthetic AMC stock tokens floating around in wallets nobody can see make that job harder to pull off, calling the whole setup a "quasi-fake market" that seeds public distrust of financial markets. He asked Robinhood to voluntarily cease and desist, said his "high-priced securities counsel" has been asked whether they can force it, and said he'll be taking it to the SEC. (Though no letter has actually been filed… yet.) Vlad Tenev's entire reply: "What's the concern?" He made the longer version of his case last year, when OpenAI disowned its own Robinhood token. Vlad's position is that these are derivatives rather than equity, and that tokenizing a company shouldn't require that company's permission. But there's a reason these kinds of critiques keep landing on Robinhood in particular... Two versions of tokenized stocks are being built at the same time. Kyle (our Head of Research) wrote this up for PRO members last week. Kraken and Robinhood got there first with wrappers, while Coinbase launched the actual asset on Base with full rights for whoever holds it. Aron is attacking the wrapper model specifically - which are faster/easier to launch compared to legit onchain equities, and contributing to the massive growth of stock-based RWAs. (E.g. Robinhood added 100 wrapped stock tokens in a single batch on August 13, while Coinbase has launched a total of 4 legit tokenized stocks to date.) Source: The Block So where does this all shake out? In short: We’re in limbo right now. The SEC may or may not pick this up, and Robinhood may or may not bow to AMC’s cease-and-desist. Either way, public pressure like this will likely push future players toward taking the Coinbase route (legit 1:1 issuance) over the quick-n-easy wrapper route. Kyle is well positioned for that outcome - he called Coinbase at $35 back in 2023, his first-ever PRO call. It ran to $450, and today it sits near $190. Don’t miss his next big call! Try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days . BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Damn dawg! A relatively obscure launchpad is now producing more daily revenue than some of crypto's most established protocols. Big call. Saylor frames Strategy's current moment like Amazon building Prime: painful short term, dominant long term. This is cool: OKX just launched an onchain operating system for AI agents. Save your free seat here. RATE TODAY’S EDITION What'd you think of today's edition? 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 F**king great 🥛🥛🥛 Meh, do better 🥛 You didn't bring the heat MILKY MEMES 🤣 Source: @boldleonidas Source: @ToolySOL ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛 VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada
Plus: Lulu's downward slide | Friday, September 04, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Sep 04, 2026 Friday ✅. Today's newsletter is 777 words, a 3-minute read. 📉 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.4%. The index gained 0.1% for the week and is up 12.8% for the year. 🥶 Today's stock spotlight: Fair Isaac Corp. (-16.7%), the company behind the FICO score, tumbled after Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start accepting a rival credit score, escalating his monthslong criticism of the company's pricing. 1 big thing: Tesla's game of chicken By Joann Muller The interior of a Tesla Cybercab, displayed in downtown Austin, Texas, yesterday. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images Tesla's decision to let passengers start booking rides in its driverless Cybercab has triggered a high-stakes game of chicken with federal regulators. Catch up quick: After Tesla's launch event in Austin, Texas, yesterday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration this morning said it opened an investigation into Tesla's self-certification that the Cybercab — which lacks a steering wheel and pedals — complies with federal vehicle safety standards. 🔍 The agency's "audit query" will scrutinize the technical data and processes Tesla used to certify a vehicle that doesn't have traditional human controls. Tesla shares closed down 5.9%. The big picture: CEO Elon Musk's entire strategy for an autonomous future hinges on producing Cybercabs by the millions. To achieve that scale, Tesla is arguing that Cybercab already complies with vehicle safety rules and therefore doesn't need a special exemption, which would require a limited production run. 🎲 That stance — unless challenged by the NHTSA — could give Tesla a huge advantage over rivals like Amazon-owned Zoox, whose own purpose-built robotaxi is capped by law at 2,500 vehicles per year. ⏪ Flashback: Zoox tried the regulatory path that Tesla is taking now back in 2022 with its own carriage-style robotaxi, which also lacks human controls. After a two-year standoff with NHTSA, Zoox changed course and said it would seek an exemption after all. Now comes Tesla, with essentially the same aggressive argument for self-certification. What we're watching: There's a big difference, though, between today and Zoox's situation four years ago. The NHTSA under Trump is already rewriting the rulebook to eliminate unnecessary barriers to AVs. Tesla is betting that its interpretation of today's rules will survive scrutiny — or that Washington will change the rules before the disagreement becomes consequential. There's reason to think Tesla feels comfortable making that bet. On Tesla's most recent earnings call, engineering chief Lars Moravy referred to "a great relationship" with NHTSA administrator Jonathan Morrison, and said Tesla had been "open and honest" with the agency for years about its Cybercab plans. "I don't want to say we're in lockstep," Moravy said, "but I feel like we have a partner there, and we're working together on it." Go deeper 2. 📉 Lulu's downward slide Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images Lululemon's sales slump is showing no signs of abating. The big picture: The end of the leggings era and the rise of fierce competitors are doing serious damage to the once high-flying brand. State of play: Lululemon's comparable sales fell 9% year over year in its latest quarter, including a 12% drop in the Americas. That prompted a 17.4% plunge in the stock today. It's now down over 51% on the year. What they're saying: "Lululemon has gone firmly off the boil," writes GlobalData retail analyst Neil Saunders. What's next: The company projected a revenue decline of 10%–11% for its third quarter. 3. Other happenings Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios 🪙 Bitcoin rose for the third straight week, hitting its highest point since May 11. ( CNBC ) 🏈 The NFL said it's not prepared to partner with prediction markets, saying the sportsbook alternatives "need a robust regulatory framework." ( Bloomberg ) 🏀 Cathy Engelbert is retiring as WNBA commissioner after leading the league through a growth period and then facing criticism over her leadership. ( ESPN ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Sports media's next big opportunity Sports rights are becoming an even more valuable media asset. Rising rights fees, streaming ad demand and growing interest in women's sports are creating new upside well beyond ticket sales. The latest Media Trends Executive analysis examines how sports are reshaping the media business — and where the biggest opportunities are emerging. Read the full analysis. 4. 👀 What we're watching Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios Next week will feature two big inflation indicators that will factor heavily into the Fed's interest rate decision on Sept. 16: Thursday: the August Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices. Friday: the Consumer Price Index, a measure of the prices consumers pay for goods and services. The big picture: All eyes are now on inflation. Today's strong jobs report strengthens the case for the Fed officials who see an urgent need to raise rates to keep prices in check, our Axios Macro colleagues write . A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Media is shifting fast. Our reporters see it first. Sara Fischer and Kerry Flynn go deeper than the headlines — tracking the deals, disruptions, and strategic shifts that define where the media industry is heading. Media Trends Executive is their members-only briefing, written for leaders who can't afford to be caught off guard. 🔒 Become a member today to read what the industry's best reporters see coming. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Get started today . Follow Axios across:
AI makes work (for now) Byron Gilliam “Men have become the tools of their tools.” — Henry David Thoreau Friday charts: AI makes work (for now) The people who know the most about AI keep telling us it’s coming for our jobs. Dario Amodei has told us to expect 20% unemployment any time now. Sam Altman has said AI will be able to do the jobs of all digital workers. Geoffrey Hinton — the godfather of AI — says it will cause “massive unemployment.” Elon Musk thinks there will eventually be no jobs at all. So far, though, the opposite seems to be happening. One study found that AI is making our workdays longer. Satellite imagery of Chinese cities showed that the lights were staying on longer at the office buildings of companies most exposed to AI. “AI exposure significantly increases firm work intensity,” the study concluded. A separate study of US workers quantified the effect: “ An increase from the 25th to the 75th percentile in AI exposure corresponds to an additional 2.2 hours of work per week.” One problem is that humans keep finding themselves cleaning up the messes that AI makes. Meta has reportedly found that code-writing autonomous agents have caused a 40% increase in “major technical and security incidents.” The amount of time human programmers have had to spend “firefighting” problems in the code has increased by 70%. Even when the AIs are not making mistakes, they can dramatically increase people’s workload. The Wall Street Journal quotes a startup founder who says he no longer sleeps through the night because he feels compelled to be available to the AI agents he employs. “The cost of the agents’ being blocked for eight hours is way too high,” the founder says. “They can be done with their work at any point of time, in the middle of the night.” Or AI might just have a question. “They just demand your attention,” he added. “Does it need anything? Can I help it in any way?” “The more work AI agents do, the more founders find themselves working,” the Journal concluded. Another problem is that executives often have unrealistic expectations for AI. Management researcher Malte Jauch says employees are currently caught in a “rat race” of working longer hours to meet inflated management targets when AI tools fail to deliver promised efficiency gains. There’s data to support the idea: A survey found that 96% of C-suite executives expect AI to raise output. But 77% of their employees say it increases their workload. The good news is that corporations are realizing that AI can’t yet do everything. Meta, for example, abandoned plans to shrink the size of some of its teams by as much as 60% by replacing engineers with autonomous AI agents. Others are hiring again. The Wall Street Journal reports that companies like Alphabet, CSX, and ServiceNow have recognized a need for humans to work alongside AI. “Just because you have coding agents doesn’t mean you’re not hiring engineers," one CEO said. Similarly, Ford Motor Company recently said it hired 350 veteran engineers — some of them re-hired — to address quality and recall issues that AI was unable to fix. "AI is a fantastic tool,” a Ford VP told reporters, “but it’s only as good as the information you use to train it.” Right. But what happens when the engineers are done training the AIs? The news on jobs — including this morning’s data — is good. But the Chinese workers keeping the office lights burning a little longer probably have the right idea — because the competition is only going to get better from here. Let’s check the charts. AGI now? OpenAI says that, in testing, its new Astra model was able to abstract reasoning puzzles 99.9% of the time. Claude passed the same tests only 30.2% of the time. Human testers scored 48%. (Note: You can’t fix a Ford pickup truck with an abstract reasoning puzzle.) The one yet — by a little: Astra finished tops in Epoch AI’s evaluation of models, with a particularly good result in the category of “Mystery Game Puzzles.” But the improvement is roughly on trend. Learning machines: Epoch AI also finds that humans are better at learning than AIs. “We ran a human baseline on Earthborne Rangers, the complex, long-horizon board game behind our benchmark EBR-bench. Humans started low, but the best mastered the game after five play-throughs. No AI we have evaluated ever got there.” I don’t think Astra has had a go at it yet, however. Humans still make the movies: Despite all the AI-generated video you see on social media, AI has not yet reduced the number of crew employed on movie sets. Getting bigger, faster: In 2025, Anthropic and OpenAI were already among the fastest-growing companies in history. Somehow, they're growing even faster in 2026. I’d guess that’s a one-time acceleration from the advent of agentic AI. But maybe not! It might also just be the agents getting more and more useful. I get it: Jon Harley finds that the average US worker believes there is a 20% chance that AI will cause them to lose their job within two years. (Not shown: The average newsletter writer thinks there’s a 100% chance.) Experience matters: An a16z chart shows that tech companies have been hiring for experience over skill. As someone with a lot of experience (and not many skills), I welcome this development. Humans are still dialing and smiling: The Economist reports that outsourced call centers in the Philippines — perhaps the first job you’d think AI would replace — are still growing. It’s a great time to be a software engineer: The median new engineering hire at Anthropic earns $1.3 million a year . The median! It’s a great time to have real skills: The demand for skilled construction workers is booming, thanks to the race to build data centers. Will AIs ever be able to install an HVAC system? Not any time soon, I don’t think. Have a great weekend, hardworking readers. — Byron Gilliam Brought to you by: Avalanche Summit NYC returns September 16–17, bringing together the institutions, enterprises, investors, and builders turning b