HL VVV · XTB —
naplyw nowego kapitalu — cena +52.6%, OI +88.0%. czesciowo skorelowany z BTC.
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Zbieżność czasowa, nie dowód przyczyny — sprawdź sam.
Treasury Secretary Bessent Crushes Japanese Yen Short Sellers Oil Nears $100 While Bitcoin Golden Cross Appears Treasury Secretary Bessent Crushes Japanese Yen Short Sellers Sep 9 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors Escalating military exchanges across the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude above $99 per barrel. Iranian forces attacked two American vessels. The United States military responded forcefully, striking five Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and Jask. This sudden confrontation has injected an acute supply-shock premium into global energy markets. Bitcoin made its first ever 50-day and 200-day moving average golden cross of the entire cycle near $79,350. Next US CPI projections forecast headline inflation at 3.4%. Meanwhile, producer price estimates are heading for a scorching 5.1% print. The figures effectively box in Fed policymakers, eliminating any near-term rationale for monetary easing. Yet digital asset markets are demonstrating remarkable resilience against this hawkish macro backdrop. Dollar liquidity operations are quietly counteracting headline tightening. Capital is aggressively rotating into specialized on-chain sectors rather than retreating into cash. Here’s what our desk is watching. TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices Box In Fed Policy Energy markets are pricing in an aggressive geopolitical risk premium following military engagements in critical maritime choke points. Brent crude pushed beyond $99 per barrel, touching its highest level in seven weeks. The Pentagon launched retaliatory strikes, destroying five Iranian tankers near the strategic hubs of Kharg Island and Jask. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly twenty percent of daily global petroleum transit. Any prolonged physical disruption immediately transforms a regional conflict into an international economic shock. Energy traders are already preparing for oil prices to clear the psychological $100 barrier. This supply shock arrives alongside persistent macroeconomic friction in the United States. Our crypto market analysis highlights consensus CPI estimates settling at 3.4%. Meanwhile, producer price inflation is forecast to jump from 4.7% to 5.1%. Accelerating wholesale costs will pass directly into consumer prices over coming quarters . These figures completely constrain Fed policy deliberations heading into autumn. Central bankers cannot easily ease monetary conditions while energy prices spark secondary inflation waves. Benchmark equity indices are wavering as elevated borrowing costs compress corporate valuations. Traditional equities face a painful stagflationary squeeze between stalling growth and sticky input costs. Semiconductor stocks and capital-intensive technology companies are feeling immediate margin pressure. Rising energy costs increase operational expenses for data centers and silicon fabrication facilities. Macro trading desks are heavily de-risking broad equity exposure as a result. Yet this monetary paralysis has forced another sovereign entity to step into the liquidity breach. Bitcoin Technicals Flash Golden Cross as Macro Trading Adjusts While geopolitical tensions dominate financial news, sovereign balance sheets are establishing an aggressive floor under asset prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated bluntly that he possesses asymmetric information and now acts as the house. That sovereign assertion triggered an immediate 6.3% rally in the Japanese yen against the dollar. Our research indicates the United States Treasury is actively replacing monetary easing with targeted debt management. Official debt buyback operations begin tomorrow, doubling regular liquidity injections from $2 billion to $4 billion. Desks expect today’s Treasury announcement could shock markets with buybacks reaching $6 billion to $8 billion. This massive injection of dollar liquidity aligns precisely with structural chart breakouts across digital asset markets: The Cycle’s First Golden Cross : Bitcoin printed its first 50-day and 200-day moving average golden cross of the entire cycle near $79,350. Historically Shallow Pullback : Historical corrections into golden crosses averaged 12.4%, while the current cycle experienced an extraordinarily mild 6% retrace. Cycle Continuation Precedent : Across the 2022–2025 cycle, two out of four crosses triggered immediate explosive advances of 60% and 114% without pulling back. Multi-Year RSI Breakout Retest : The daily RSI has successfully retested the multi-year descending trendline that capped price throughout the prior bear market. Institutional Inflow Surge : BlackRock’s spot ETF recorded $3.7 billion in net inflows quarter-to-date, pacing its strongest intake since the third quarter of 2025. Helios Analytics Momentum Signal : Analysis of Bitcoin’s top fifteen volatility-adjusted two-day surges confirms price traded higher ninety days later in eighty percent of historical instances. The macro mechanics are crystal clear to our desk. The Treasury is actively shortening government debt duration to suppress spiking bond yields. That synthetic quantitative easing provides a durable backstop for digital stores of value. With Bitcoin anchoring the ma
Hormuz premium with clean entries on SKY, WLD, and INTEL. 🚨5 Technical Setups As Oil Crosses $100 Barrier Hormuz premium with clean entries on SKY, WLD, and INTEL. Sep 9 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Overnight the U.S. and Iran escalated again around Hormuz. American forces hit Iranian tankers; Tehran answered with strikes on ships and a U.S.-used base in Jordan, while Houthi fire kept Saudi energy sites in the mix. Crude finally cleared the $100 mark. Wall Street is selling that tape. Stocks opened weaker after Tuesday’s drop as oil stayed bid and hike odds firmed into this week’s inflation prints and the mid-month Fed. Equities are reading $100 oil as an inflation problem, not an energy boom. Bitcoin is holding up better than the indexes, but it is still living inside the same risk regime: a Hormuz premium stacked on sticky prices. The tax is showing up first in crude, then in duration and equities. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Trading apps dominate record on-chain protocol fees. What sector leads next? 🦄 DEXs 📈 Perps 🎲 Predictions Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Skycoin(SKYUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – Worldcoin(WLDUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – Aerodrome(AEROUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Aptos(APTUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Intel Corporation (INTEL) 1-Day TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Chart #1 – Skycoin(SKYUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Skycoin has printed an aggressive bearish distribution candle following repeated rejections near the $0.07300–$0.07400 highs, breaking down below its local consolidation shelf to trade around $0.06443 on the daily timeframe. Designed as an open-source, peer-to-peer ecosystem engineered to support Skywire—a decentralized, encrypted mesh internet protocol powered by its Obelisk web-of-trust consensus—this short trade setup targets a deeper mean-reversion drop toward the $0.05650–$0.05700 liquidity pool as long as overhead resistance holds below $0.06700–$0.07100. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.66 Stop Loss: $0.71 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.60 TP2: $0.56 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Worldcoin(WLDUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Worldcoin has confirmed a rounded accumulation base and initiated an impulse breakout above its multi-month consolidation range, pulling back slightly to retest structure around $0.4492 on the daily timeframe. Designed as a global digital identity and financial network, Worldcoin leverages privacy-preserving zero-knowledge proofs via the Orb iris-biometric system (World ID) to distinguish real humans from AI online while integrating decentralized distribution on the World Chain Layer-2 network. This long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.6110 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.3425–$0.4099 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.42 Stop Loss: $0.34 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.54 TP2: $0.64 Chart #3 – Aerodrome(AEROUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Aerodrome Finance has pulled back to test its prior breakout shelf following a sharp impulse toward $0.6800, sustaining structure above the $0.5169 pivot to trade around $0.5765 on the daily timeframe. Serving as the primary automated market maker and central liquidity hub built natively on Coinbase's Base Layer-2 network—leveraging a vote-lock ve(3,3) tokenomics model to incentivize low-slippage swaps and deep capital efficiency—this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.7657 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.4595–$0.5169 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.51 Stop Loss: $0.45 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.65 TP2: $0.76 Chart #4 – Aptos(APTUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Aptos has formed a higher-low base out of multi-month bottom accumulation, breaking cleanly above the $0.606 horizontal pivot to trade near $0.674 on the 1-day timeframe. Functioning as a high-throughput Layer-1 proof-of-stake blockchain engineered with the Move programming language and AptosBFT consensus to provide sub-second finality, parallel transaction execution via Block-STM, and institutional-grade smart contract safety, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.962 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.503–$0.606 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.606 Stop Loss: $0.503 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.785 TP2: $0.962 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Intel Corporation (INTEL) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (INTEL refers to the stock of Intel Corporation and not a cryptocurrency.) Intel has formed a higher-low base after sweeping August pullback liquidity, pushing through its local horizontal resistance pivot at $95.94 to trade around $105.09 on the 1-day timeframe. Operating as a global semiconductor manufacturer advancing leading-edge foundry services (IFS), advanced
App Store top 5 in 24 hours. Why the launch of Muse sent META stock up 5% premarket App Store top 5 in 24 hours. Archie Keshan GM. This is Milk Road Stocks where AI agents are about to start spending your money. Meta just launched an AI agent that can actually buy things for you. In this edition, we explain why this could be a massive catalyst for META. First, a quick detour to private markets. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. META LAUNCHES A PERSONAL AI AGENT 🤖 There was a big announcement that came out yesterday. Meta launched Muse that’s a personal AI agent that connects to your real apps and acts inside them, rather than just answering questions. It can send emails, book travel, fill forms, make purchases, negotiate bills and turn recipe Reels into grocery lists. You give it a goal and it plans, opens a browser and works through the task on its own. Source: @Muse Early usage has "blown way past projections" with users engaging 10x more than test cohorts. It hit the App Store top 5 in under 24 hours. Source: @wallstengine For me, the coolest feature of Muse was that you can make payments directly within the chat interface. Payments run through Link by Stripe using one-time-use cards. But don’t worry, each transaction requires your approval. You will be approving individual actions as they happen. The bigger picture here is something we've been writing about for months. AI agents become economic actors that spend money, book things and complete tasks on behalf of users. Our PRO analyst Vincent has been saying this for months now: “The platforms giving users access to AI agents that can transact on their behalf are the ones that win the next decade of consumer technology.” Muse already has integrations with Shopify and Ticketmaster which means it can already browse, select and purchase from Shopify/Ticketmaster merchants on your behalf. This is the current pricing structure for Muse: Free tier with limits. Power plan at $20/month. Maximum plan at $100/month. Meta currently has 3+ billion monthly active users. So, if even 1% convert to the $20 Power plan that's roughly $7.2B in annualized subscription revenue from a product that launched yesterday. On the back of this announcement, META is up more than 5% in premarket trading. Source: @StockSavvyShay Muse is still brand new, so there's plenty that can go wrong. But the early adoption numbers suggest Meta may have found something users actually want. For a company with 3+ billion users, even a tiny conversion rate can create a very big business. If you want to see Muse in action, check out this two-minute walkthrough here . FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road Stocks 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada
Trump threatens Canadian jetmaker as trade war intensifies... September 09, 2026 Presented By Are you ready for some football? The NFL is back tonight, and your fantasy team, “Olave Garden,” is looking dangerous. Nothing can go wrong this season. —Matty Merritt, Sam Klebanov, Dave Lozo, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: More US–Canada trade drama The record-breaking summer box office Another wild art heist in France Markets Nasdaq 26,421.41 -0.32% S&P 7,673.52 -0.58% Dow 52,786.07 -1.18% 10-Year 4.806% +2.0 bps Bitcoin $78,596.46 -0.79% Novartis $137.72 -13.92% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks fell yesterday, with the Dow getting hit particularly hard as the Iran war continued to drive up oil prices. Meanwhile, Novartis got slammed after its third consecutive drug trial setback. Markets Sponsored by State Street Investment Management Get exposure to hundreds of companies powering America’s economy—all in a single trade, with SPY. Invest in SPY, the original S&P 500 ETF .* TIT FOR TAT Trump targets Canadian jetmaker amid trade war Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Bombardier Another trade war is blowing in, this time with people who have a lot of practice waiting out the storm. Canada officially instituted its $20 billion retaliatory tariffs yesterday on steel, cosmetics, hockey sticks, appliances, and other US products, in response to the US’ tariffs on the country. After the tariffs went into effect, the Trump administration slapped even more tariffs on Canada and also moved to ban imports of some products like rye whiskies and motorcycles. President Trump also called for a ban on sales of planes from Canadian aerospace company Bombardier. He didn’t provide details on how he would enforce this ban, but Bombardier was quick to point out the company’s vast US footprint: Its supply chain sources parts, like wings and engines, from roughly 2,800 US companies in 47 states. Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran objected to the president’s proposal, noting that Bombardier supports a 1,000+ workforce in his home state. How did we get here? On Aug. 18, things couldn’t have looked better. Trump announced a preliminary deal between the countries, but things quickly fell apart with the intensity of a day-four family vacation crashout. A flurry of claims from each side about non-negotiables and bad faith proposals followed: Canadian officials said the US wanted changes to how French-language content appears on streaming platforms, which the US denied. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed the deal stalled because of an 11th-hour addition from Canada around tariff relief for trucks. An initial deal included the possibility of the current 25% levies dropping to at least 15%. Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the retaliatory tariffs were meant to protect Canadian workers. He also accused Trump of wanting Canada to be dependent on the US rather than seeking a “true economic partnership.” What’s next… The countries could ratchet the tit-for-tat levies even further, just ahead of an intense midterm season in the US. Ontario Premier Doug Ford even teased restricting electricity exports to border states like New York and Michigan. And as Canada’s relationship with the US sours, it’s strengthening ties to Europe: Canada and the EU are reportedly planning to form an economic and defense partnership .— MM Sponsored By Hotels.com Work trips that work for you Don’t make sacrifices just because you’re on a work trip. You deserve those continental breakfast waffles. With business preferences on Hotels.com, you can book work trips faster . Set your preferences once and get results tailored to your business needs every time you travel. Make sure wherever you stay has must-haves like: free Wi-Fi breakfast included an onsite gym fully refundable bookings great ratings They also make it easy to save and earn Hotels.com rewards on business trips and use them on future travel. Earn on work, spend on you. and start earning on every eligible work stay. World Tour de headlines Timothy A. Clary/Getty Images 📱 Apple expected to debut foldable iPhone today. Fans of nonchalantly flicking open a flip phone to answer a call are in for a great day. At its annual product event today, Apple will reportedly announce a new iPhone that opens and closes like a book. It would be the popular phone’s biggest redesign since launching in 2007, as well as a huge moment for brand-new CEO John Ternus as he looks to reinvigorate a brand that critics have accused of getting stale. Foldable phones, including from rival Samsung, have been available for years, but still only make up a small portion of the smartphone market, per the New York Times. Apple’s version is expected to cost at least $2,000—about twice as expensive as the iPhone 17 Pro. 🤝 Amazon inks major AI chip deal with Qualcomm. The company that started off just selling books online has the option to acquire $4 billion of stock in chipmaker Qualcomm in exchange for custom chips to power its AI data center infrastructure, according to SEC filings. The deal is seen as a big win for Qualcomm, which has long manufactured chips for mobile devices but now wants a stronger foothold in data centers to challenge Nvidia’s dominance. “The company is transforming,” Qualcomm’s CFO said at a conference yesterday. 📚 Report: Students who use AI do worse on exams. File this under “things you suspected but could not prove.” According to OECD’s flagship education report, students who use AI for schoolwork underperform those who don’t by a significant amount. Case in point: Students who never use AI scored 509 on a science test, vs. 481 for students who use it very frequently—the equivalent of about a year and a half of education when adjusted for socioeconomic status, Bloomberg reported. Still, the report emphasizes that AI can still be a useful tool for
Plus: Copper is rising | Wednesday, September 09, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 09, 2026 🏎️ Wednesday already! This morning, U.S. stock futures are down, after the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, topped $100 for the first time since July amid rising Middle East tensions. 👀 The Treasury Department's previously announced program to increase the size of its bond buybacks takes effect today. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told an audience in Texas that when he takes a risk, it's different. "I have asymmetric information. I am the house now," he said . 🗓️ Today, a glimpse toward a looming winter of discontent for those unlucky Northeasterners who missed the chance to hedge their exposure to heating oil prices. It's likely to be a long winter for them. Let's bundle up and get to it. In 1,048 words, a 4-minute read. 1 big thing: 🥶 The heating oil man cometh By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet, Axios research; Chart: Axios Home heating oil bills are likely to be massive this winter in the Northeast — and as one such homeowner, I am terrified. Why it matters: Beyond my ability to keep my daughter and dog alive through the long, dark suburban winter, the looming shadow of the oil delivery truck underscores the costs consumers are bearing as a result of parallel wars in Iran and Ukraine. U.S. gasoline prices averaged $4.15 for a gallon of regular yesterday, according to AAA. Diesel hit an all-time high price of $5.90 a gallon on Monday and stayed there yesterday. Catch up quick: Like prices for diesel — a close cousin of home heating oil among refined petroleum products — heating fuel prices are hovering near record highs. In part this is related to the Iran war, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz not only disrupted shipments of crude oil, but also curtailed exports of refined products out of the volatile region. It also reflects Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries in Russia — long an important global exporter of petroleum products like diesel. The attacks prompted Russia to ban exports, leaving its customers scrambling for global supplies. The latest: In recent days, benchmark U.S. home heating oil futures leapfrogged highs hit in late 2022. U.S. heating oil futures are up just shy of 30% over the last three months. And they're up about 120% since the start of the year. Between the lines: Refineries are the big winners in this situation. Their profit margins have surged as a result of a global shortage of refining capacity. American refiners have also added to the bottom line by exporting refined distillates — the category of petroleum products that includes diesel and heating oil — to capitalize on prices in foreign markets that are even higher than those in the U.S. Weekly exports of distillates hit a record high of 1.9 million barrels per day in early August, although they've since declined slightly. The big picture: Soaring heating oil costs will largely be borne by homeowners in the Northeast, where reliance on heating oil is concentrated. Roughly 3% of U.S. households — over 4 million — use the stuff, which tends to be the most expensive way to heat your home, according to the Energy Information Administration . EIA forecasts heating fuel prices this year will average $4.80 a gallon, about 33% higher than last year. But prices can vary widely. Case in point: I just called my oil company in the New York suburbs to see what they were currently charging. It's bad — $6.86 a gallon. Stunning stat: I have not hedged, dear reader. This may come as a surprise to loyal readers of Axios Markets, but I failed to take advantage of standard pricing programs that would have let me lock in lower costs earlier in the year. (Hey, I was busy!) This has left me unhedged — or as it's sometimes described in the market, naked — in my exposure to spot prices for fuel. What they're saying: "Families are getting hit by both gasoline and heating oil," says Mark Wolfe, executive director for the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which advocates for federal funding of programs that help low-income families pay their heating and cooling bills. "So, if you're in the Northeast, then this is much more burdensome than anywhere else in the country." What we're watching: Whether the price of fuel oil emerges as an issue in the midterm elections. "This is usually something that doesn't make a big difference," said Kevin Book, head of research at energy consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. "But in cold weather states — particularly those that rely on fuels other than natural gas, it could be a very big deal." Book highlighted Alaska (where 28% of households rely on fuel oil) and Maine (50%) as such states. Both are a focus for Democratic efforts to retake the U.S. Senate. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Break through the noise with Axios Reach execs and business leaders with Axios. We'll help you tell your story in the right way: We'll distill your brand's message into its most effective form with Smart Brevity. No clutter, no filler — just clean, smart and effective. Contact us to learn more. 2. Tariff worries drive copper prices to record high By Emily Peck Data: LME via FactSet; Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Copper is trading at an all-time high. Why it matters: A rise in the metal's price usually serves as an informal gauge of global economic growth, but right now Doctor Copper's diagnosis is muddled by U.S. tariffs and other supply issues. The big picture: Because copper is a key input for so many things — machinery, electrical equipment, cars — an increase in prices can drive up overall inflation. Zoom in: There's already a 50% tariff in the U.S. on semi-finished copper products like wires and pipes. The intrigue: Refined copper — the raw metal traded on exchanges — is exempt from tariffs, but it's not clear for how long. The Trump administration said last year that it's considering putting a 15% tariff on copper starting next year, raising it to 30
Gas prices hit a record high for Labor Day... September 08, 2026 Presented By Morning. Returning to work after Labor Day always hits like a ton of bricks. But as T.S. Eliot said, “The darkness (realizing that summer is essentially over) declares the glory of the light (a four-day week).” —Molly Liebergall, Matty Merritt, Brendan Cosgrove, Adam Epstein, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: Record-high Labor Day gas prices The secret Elizabeth Holmes documentary Why everyone’s going on “fallcations” Markets: Year-to-Date Nasdaq 26,506.99 +14.05% S&P 7,718.6 +12.75% Dow 53,414.25 +11.13% 10-Year 4.784% +62.1 bps Bitcoin $79,337.06 -9.34% GameStop $19.16 -4.58% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 10:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Between US–Canada trade tensions and interest rate speculation, there will be enough action on Wall Street this week to make it feel like the three-day weekend never happened. Stock spotlight: OG meme stock GameStop reports earnings today, but a lot of the attention will be on one of the company’s side quests: its $4b+ stake in eBay. PUMP IT UP Labor Day gas prices have never been this high Spencer Platt/Getty Images Credit cards were working overtime at gas stations across the US this weekend. Pump prices for this time of year hit their highest level on record over the holiday, driven by continued oil disruptions from the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war. Gas cost an average of $4.15 per gallon yesterday, according to AAA: Gas never surpassed $4/gallon on Labor Day before this year. The previous record for the holiday was $3.82/gallon, set in 2012 (the record is $5.02/gallon in June 2022). The new record is ~30% higher than gas prices were this time last year, on average. For context, gas prices tend to move seasonally—rising through spring and summer, beginning their descent by Labor Day, and hitting their lowest lows in the winter, when days are shorter and people tend to drive less. This year is an exception: Iran has constrained tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the war started in February, while Ukrainian drone attacks have disabled some Russian refineries. US gas inventories were 6% below average for the last full week of August, according to the US Energy Information Administration. You’re still feeling the effects, even if you don’t have a car According to AAA: Diesel (fuel for freight trucks that carry everything from food to clothing) spiked almost 60% from last Labor Day weekend to hit a record high of $5.85/gallon going into the holiday. Prices for domestic flights to 10 of the most popular US destinations were up ~20% this weekend compared with last year. Looking ahead… the EPA moved up the date when refineries can switch from summer gas blends to cheaper winter blends from Sept. 15 to Sept. 1, which may provide some relief at the pump. But the broader oil outlook is uncertain: Iran plans to expand its Strait lockdown in response to new US strikes, and US refineries are already working at near-total capacity. —ML Sponsored By Roku Ads Manager A steady stream of sales Streaming now accounts for 47.5% of all TV viewership in the US, according to Nielsen, officially overtaking broadcast and cable combined. So if you’re not advertising on streaming, you’re missing out. Thankfully, brands can launch a Roku Ads Manager campaign starting at $500 using existing social video and creative assets. And thanks to their recent partnership with Spaceback, a creative AI upscaler, you can now turn existing social content into TV-ready ads. Roku reaches 125 million daily active people in the US , and its audience mirrors the broader US population almost exactly across ages, income, geography, and household type. Plus, Nielsen’s marketing mix modeling found that CTV is 4.5x more effective than social and 3.7x more effective than linear TV at driving sales. Get your brand in front of streamers . World Tour de headlines Chandan Khanna/Getty Images 🛬 NTSB is investigating the fatal Amazon cargo plane crash. The National Transportation Safety Board is looking into the cause of Sunday’s incident , in which an Amazon cargo jet overshot a runway at Miami International Airport and barreled into vehicles, killing five people. Per the Associated Press, the investigation is focusing on whether the plane touched down too late upon landing. The Miami airport is not equipped with arresting systems that the FAA says have saved hundreds of lives by stopping planes that overshoot the runway. Instead, the airport has a 1,000-foot safety buffer on each of its runways. 🇩🇪 Far-right AfD party wins state election in Germany. Alternative for Germany, or AfD, won a landslide victory in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, giving it the chance to form the country’s first far-right state government since the Nazi era , the Associated Press reported. It’s unclear if AfD would receive the support necessary from other parties in order to govern in the state, as Germany’s mainstream political parties have historically put up a firewall to keep it from taking power. The country’s intelligence agency classifies the nationalist, anti-immigrant AfD as an extremist group in some regions, though it’s increasingly gained popularity in Germany and has been embraced by figures like Elon Musk. 🗺️ Trump appeared to suggest renaming New Mexico to “New America.” On Sunday, President Trump posted a map of New Mexico on social media with the word “Mexico” crossed out and replaced with “America.” The official White House account on X also reshared the image. Trump’s post came days after signing an executive order to rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” prompting Google and Apple to relabel the lake straddling the US–Canada border to the president’s preferred name for US users. But Trump does not have legal authority to change the name of a state. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham was quick to reject the sugg
Plus: Blood is thicker than water, just not when it comes to business. September 8, 2026 PRESENTED BY Good morning. Stop copying me. For creatives and thought leaders, social media can be frustrating. People can copy and paste someone else’s work onto their own feeds with few consequences. Well, Morgan Stanley has had enough. The investment bank has filed copyright complaints over at least 16 posts on X that contained screenshots of its charts and research, Bloomberg reported last week. The complaints appear to be working, with at least two accounts temporarily locked. But not all the posts seem to have been made in bad faith. Some users cited Morgan Stanley directly and praised its research. One user said he was confused why the bank didn’t simply ask him to remove the post before filing a complaint. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery — except on Wall Street, apparently. INDUSTRY NEWS More Women are CFPs. Why Hasn’t Representation Budged? Photo by Getty Images via Unsplash Like punk band Bikini Kill’s Kathleen Hanna says: Girls to the front . Many Wall Street jobs have traditionally been male-dominated, and financial advice is no exception. Just under a quarter of certified financial planners are women, a figure that has remained remarkably flat since the early 1990s , according to CFP Board data. More women are becoming CFPs each year, but men are entering the profession at nearly the same pace. The gender makeup looks much the same today as it did when the Riot Grrrl movement started. “Getting from roughly a quarter to half the profession isn’t something you achieve by recruiting more women into a system that hasn’t changed,” said Kathryn Berkenpas, chief operating officer at the CFP Board. “A lot of attrition happens mid-career, often tied to firm culture, compensation transparency and access to sponsorship or book-of-business transfer opportunities, not a lack of interest.” We Don’t Wanna Assimilate Much of the profession’s gender gap comes down to a lack of awareness, said Cary Carbonaro, an advisor at Ashton Thomas Private Wealth. “A lot of women think it’s a 100% sales, eat-what-you-kill job, but that’s just one career path,” she told Advisor Upside. “That’s the hardest track and turns a lot of women off from the profession, but there’s a million other roles in financial planning where you don’t have to hunt and get clients.” The industry’s cutthroat mentality and gregarious stereotypes initially discouraged Korinne Sugasawara, founder of Kite & Compass Financial. “As an introverted queer woman of color, I just never saw myself reflected in this field,” she said. The profession’s language can also be off-putting, she added, noting that financial planning should be rooted in mutual trust rather than “chasing down” clients. We Wanna Make It Easier. To help bring more women into the profession, the CFP Board and Carbonaro announced a scholarship last week: Carbonaro’s $125,000 donation will award $5,000 per student seeking to complete a CFP program, which would qualify the student to sit for the CFP exam. The scholarship is specifically designed for women career changers. Carbonaro herself first worked in marketing and product development on Wall Street before transitioning to a fiduciary role. “Women aren’t simply a demographic the profession needs to recruit, they’re an increasingly important client base,” said Francheska Ruiz, a CFP with Tobias Financial Advisors. “It’s becoming even more important for the profession to better reflect the people it serves.” Written by Griffin Kelly PRESENTED BY HARTFORD FUNDS Seeing What Others May Miss in Fixed Income Photo via Hartford Funds Navigating today’s volatile bond markets takes more insight, resources and expertise. Hartford Strategic Income ETF (HFSI) is an active fixed-income ETF built with the strength of Wellington Management, one of the largest active fixed-income managers in the world, overseeing more than $570 billion in fixed-income assets (as of 12/31/25). That scale gives HFSI access to perspectives across asset classes and geographies, drawing on insight from more than 280 investment professionals around the globe. The result is an actively managed ETF designed to see what others in fixed income may miss : uncovering opportunities across sectors so financial professionals can pursue reliable income for clients — even when the path forward looks uncertain. Explore HFSI. FINANCIAL PLANNING When Business-Owning Clients Should Fire Their Kids Let’s start with a little role play. Imagine you’re a highly successful business owner and you’ve appointed your son or daughter to a key management position. Despite your guidance and best intentions, however, they consistently fail to meet expectations. Would you have the resolve to fire them? The natural relationship dynamics that unite families can cause significant strife if allowed into the workplace, according to Alejandro Cárdenas Villa, an author and family business advisor. While it’s not always easy to do, separating familial relationships from business roles is critical for both family harmony and business stability, and avoiding difficult decisions is often a recipe for disaster. Fortunately, experienced advisors can do a lot, and it all starts with facilitating frank conversations. “Family relationships may be unconditional, but a role in the family business cannot be,” Cárdenas told Advisor Upside. “Most conflict that I’ve seen in family businesses has been caused by the older generation, let’s say the founder, because they haven’t had the courage to make tough decisions. It becomes a ticking time bomb for the next generation.” The Big Question Successful business owners often dream about bringing their kids into management once they’re old enough. It’s not an inherently bad idea, Cárdenas said, but it’s crucial to ask whether you’ll be willing to make the tough choice if they don’t measure up. “Probably the best piece of advice I can give to founders in this situat
Plus: Bulls step back | Tuesday, September 08, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 08, 2026 🌅 Welcome back! It's back to school here in the Northeast — a time to face cold realities. 👀 This morning, S&P 500 futures are down slightly, as oil prices are at six-week highs. Attacks on Saudi Arabian energy facilities over the weekend have investors on edge. Copper prices hit an all-time high this weekend on tariff anticipation — and supply concerns for a crucial data center input. 🗓️ Today, a look at something unreal and hard to face — the prospect of a deliberate default on U.S. government debt. Plus, retail investors are looking less bullish these days. And, a sobering chart for those of us in the information biz. Let's dive in. In 1,242 words, a 4.5-minute read. 1 big thing: One big, beautiful default? By Emily Peck Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios In a Virginia law school classroom, students are grappling with an event once considered unimaginable: a U.S. government debt default. Why it matters: This semester's class is indicative of a nervousness that has become more widespread about America's standing in the global financial system. Zoom in: The One Big Beautiful Default assignment in Mitu Gulati's class at the University of Virginia School of Law is a hypothetical memo signed by "the President," who is unnamed. "Ladies and Gentlemen: I am writing to you in your capacities as experts in the resolution of sovereign debt crises," it reads. Foreigners have stopped buying U.S. Treasury bonds, and the government is "being forced to offer higher and higher interest rates" to get people to buy them, the president writes. That makes investors "yippy" and drives rates up more. Rates are at 15%, the president says, adding that he needs this fixed. Zoom out: It's a scenario that has happened to much smaller nations. Argentina, for example, outright defaulted on its debt in 2001. What they're saying: In the class exercise, the president proposes a deliberate kind of default. He says he wants to stop making payments on bonds to noncitizens and wants to minimize the negative effects such a move would have. Students have until the end of the semester to come up with a plan. "I desperately hope that we don't have to worry about it, but I think it's really stupid not to prepare," Gulati says. The big picture: U.S. Treasury securities have long been considered the safest investments in the world — sometimes described as "risk free." A deliberate default or a political decision to punish certain holders of U.S. Treasurys "would destabilize the entire international financial system," says Lee Buchheit, a veteran sovereign debt lawyer who has worked with Gulati before and is familiar with the class assignment. State of play: The U.S. is now paying higher interest rates to entice investors to buy its Treasury notes and bonds — the rate on the 30-year bond is back to levels not seen since 2007. Friction point: There are signs, meanwhile, that investors — particularly foreign governments — are looking for alternatives to the U.S. The Netherlands shifted some of its gold from the U.S. Norway's sovereign wealth fund — the world's largest — is proposing to cut its exposure to government bonds, including U.S. Treasury securities. Foreign governments are holding a much smaller share of U.S. government debt, as Matt wrote recently . Yes, but: At the moment, borrowing costs are rising not just in the U.S., but also for most developed countries — all dealing with a mountain of debt. And there are some who argue that interest rates are now normalizing from the super-low levels that became the norm in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Flashback: Worries over a U.S. default have cropped up before around debt ceiling standoffs. "We live in a moment in which a U.S. administration has been willing to deploy punitive tariffs on other countries for reasons that have nothing to do with trade policy," says Buchheit, who advised the Greek government in its debt restructuring — the largest ever at the time. "The proponents of those policies might just be tempted to entertain the possibility of a targeted default on debt held by an offending country," he says. But only if it wouldn't impair the market for U.S. debt, invite retaliation and could really be targeted. The bottom line: "These are Himalayan ifs," he says. "I, for one, don't think this would be possible, but the OBBD exercise invites the students to indulge in what law professors like to call 'hypotheticals.'" "After all, bestselling books are written about the possibility, and the likely consequences, of thermonuclear annihilation." 2. Retail investors were less bullish in August By Jeffrey Cane Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios Retail investors were less eager buyers of stocks in August, taking advantage of gains early in the month to trim some of their positions and leading to a 3.9% decline in Charles Schwab's index of stock positions and trading activity, per data shared exclusively with Axios. Why it matters: That caution, seen during a month of rising Treasury yields and surging energy prices, may indicate a willingness to tap the brakes on this long-running bull market. What they're saying: Investors' hesitation is reflected in the growing trend of putting money into exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, instead of single stocks, says Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab. There's a "momentum shift toward diversified ETFs," he notes, with four ETFs among the top 10 net buys among Schwab clients. In addition, of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, its investors were net buyers of only industrials, utilities and real estate — all typically defensive investments. Zoom in: Among single-stock names, Elon Musk's SpaceX was "hands down the favorite" among retail clients in August, Mazzola says. Other top net buys were: Micron, Nvidia, Intel and Alphabet. By the numbers: The Schwab Trading Activity Index, or STAX, declined to
Plus: Is your billfold big enough for Apple’s new foldable? September 8, 2026 PRESENTED BY UNITED STATES TUNGSTEN CORP. Good morning. Young workers the world over can’t catch a break. Chinese auto parts giant Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems apologized Monday for laying off 107 new employees weeks after hiring them straight out of university. The company, which makes headlamps for BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen and more, recruited 440 graduates from the class of 2026, a move it now calls “poor judgment” after a July revision in order forecasts led to restructuring. Under pressure from local authorities and furious social media users, Xingyu Automotive announced its general manager will forfeit a year’s worth of salary, its deputy general manager will lose six months’ pay, its HR director has been fired, and another HR official has been demoted. The laid-off young workers are receiving three months of job-seeker subsidies and any who don’t find a job will get six months of salary. As of Monday, 71 of the workers had already started in new positions, and 22 had job offers. MARKETS S&P 500 7,718.60 ▼ -0.38% DJI 53,414.25 ▼ -0.51% ORCL $158.78 ▲ +3.08% Stock data as of market close on September 4, 2026. MARKETS How Much Longer Can Blue-Chip Companies Keep Up High Performance? Photo via Lev Radin/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom If you’re an American corporate titan right now, life is basically an all-you-can-eat buffet where everyone else is paying for the napkins. In the second quarter, earnings per share for S&P 500 companies skyrocketed 53% from a year earlier and sales jumped almost 16%, according to LSEG data. Plenty of companies across industries, from Best Buy to Caterpillar to General Motors , have beaten earnings expectations and raised their guidance. Still, it’s probably no surprise that big tech is having a disproportionate say: Alphabet, Amazon, Micron Technology and NVIDIA were four of the top five contributors to earnings growth, according to FactSet . There are many factors at play, including tariff refunds, resilient consumer spending and elevated energy prices. But the biggest driver is artificial intelligence spending, which has moved far beyond just being a chip story. Hyperscalers are pouring money into data centers, power infrastructure, hardware and more, and capital expenditures for the largest tech companies are expected to top $1 trillion next year. Second Act Can the strong performances last? The estimated third-quarter year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 28.5%, and achieving that would mark the index’s third straight quarter of earnings above 25%, per FactSet . For the fourth quarter, analysts are estimating earnings growth of 26.1%. But risks to those estimates are becoming clearer. For one, the market is moving from asking how much companies are spending on AI to when those investments are actually going to pay off. “The winners will not necessarily be every company funding the buildout,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at US Bank Asset Management. “They will be the businesses with pricing power, hard-to-replicate infrastructure and a clear path from spending to cash flow.” That’s not all: Persistent inflation could weigh on consumer demand and profit margins, while slower economic growth would weaken revenue, Hainlin said. “With expectations already elevated, even solid results could produce volatility if companies lower their guidance or investors question the durability of growth.” Then there’s the continued bond market rout. Higher bond yields increase borrowing and refinancing costs, and give investors a competitive alternative to stocks. Companies with highly leveraged balance sheets, large refinancing needs or interest-sensitive business models could see earnings pressure as financing costs rise, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird. “If the AI capex build requires an increasing level of debt financing, then higher rates could weigh on forward profitability and add volatility to the whole ecosystem,” he added (though that may be more of a 2027 or 2028 story). The Market’s Mismatch: A recent report from JPMorgan Wealth Management pointed out that while forward earnings expectations keep going up, stocks aren’t fully reflecting the trend. What could change that? Bond yields becoming less of a headwind and more certainty around how helpful AI will be for productivity long term. Written by Mallika Mitra PRESENTED BY UNITED STATES TUNGSTEN CORP. This Mineral Is Up 500%+ Photo via United States Tungsten Corp. If you’re not one of those rare few who keep their phone ringer on for all to hear, then you’re someone whose pocket is buzzing with notifications. Those vibrations? Tungsten . Tungsten is one of the densest materials on Earth and is used as the vibration weight inside every haptic motor. It’s also a critical mineral for aerospace, automotive, energy and defense, but the US is totally reliant on imports, putting these industries at risk. Enter United States Tungsten , a company reactivating America’s largest proven tungsten mine. Their goal? Reshore this industry-critical raw material. Today you can become a United States Tungsten shareholder and get up to 18% bonus shares . And with tungsten prices up 500%+ in the last year, now’s a great time to invest. * BIG TECH Foldable Phones Are Back, and They’re Bringing Bad News to Your Billfold Anyone who rocked a hot pink Motorola Razr in the 2000s knows folding phones are nothing new. If you didn’t live through the era of flip-phone flexing, however, it’s no wonder if you see their buzzy comeback as more debut than resurgence. Not only are they dominating headlines and marketing campaigns, but they also look different: This time around, they’re all screen and no button. The latest arrival on the foldable scene is Apple, which is finally putting a crease in its iconic iPhone for customers who want a bigger screen but are too ashamed to bring their iPad everywhere. Bloomber
Launchpad Revenue Slows Down Amid Retail Exhaustion Hunter Biden's Memecoin Tests Liquidity (Do not buy!!!!) Launchpad Revenue Slows Down Amid Retail Exhaustion Sep 8 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors As risk markets begin to price in a chaotic autumn, we are watching political memecoins attempt to absorb the last drops of retail liquidity. Our desk is seeing a stark divergence between these fleeting on-chain casinos and a rapidly hardening macroeconomic backdrop. The upcoming launch of Hunter Biden’s $LAPTOP token perfectly captures this tension. It is a spectacle of peak grift arriving just as global bond yields are crushing risk assets. While retail traders chase politically charged tickers, institutional capital is pivoting toward hard commodities and defensive positioning. We are tracking intense selloffs across major tech indexes as global supply chain fears resurface. Volatility is guaranteed over the coming weeks as inflation data and central bank decisions collide with exhausted market structure. This is not the environment to blindly punt capital into low-conviction setups. TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Political Grift Meets Crypto Market Analysis The upcoming September 9 launch of the $LAPTOP token on Base feels like a simulation breaking down. Hunter Biden is launching a memecoin with a massive 1 billion supply. The token is currently sporting a $200 million fully diluted valuation on Polymarket. Our research indicates that 35% of the supply unlocks immediately at the token generation event. This initial unlock includes a 10% airdrop to his Substack and Channel 5 subscribers. The tokenomics introduce a novel but highly controversial prediction market mechanism. Exactly 30% of the supply is tied directly to real-world prediction resolutions. If a prediction comes true, those tokens are permanently burned from the supply. If the prediction fails, the tokens are donated to charity via the Phoenix Veritas Foundation. This structure essentially attempts to gamify his personal controversies for on-chain profit. Despite the gimmicks, the market is aggressively pushing back against the launch. Kraken has already deleted its listing post following swift public backlash. Pump also scrubbed its promotional tweet from its main timeline. High-profile figures like Ansem and Market Bubble abruptly canceled their upcoming interviews with Hunter. Even Base creator Jesse Pollak publicly distanced the network from the project. He emphasized that Base made a conscious decision to remain completely hands-off regarding amplification. The sheer hypocrisy of the launch is impossible to ignore. Hunter Biden recently attacked Donald Trump’s $2.3 billion crypto haul, yet he is now launching his own token. He is reportedly attempting to service $15 million in personal debt after accumulating $17 million in legal fees. Regardless of the moral hazard, Base network infrastructure is capturing the speculative volume. Aerodrome popped nearly 25% on the news as traders front-ran the anticipated decentralized exchange activity. Our desk views this token as a massive red flag for late-stage retail exhaustion. Macro Trading Under Fire: Fed Policy and Geopolitical Risk While the on-chain trenches chase political absurdity, the global economy is signaling severe distress. Our desk is aggressively monitoring a massive derisking schedule over the next two weeks. The market is stacked with massive volatility catalysts that could determine the next major directional move. Traders are forced to reprice the market’s most ambitious infrastructure and artificial intelligence bets. The geopolitical risk premium is currently soaring due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices have surged to a three-month high above $98 per barrel for Brent crude. Meanwhile, copper just registered a new all-time high, signaling underlying industrial panic. We are tracking the following critical derisking events for the days ahead: Producer Price Index data releases on Thursday, setting the immediate inflation baseline. Consumer Price Index data follows on Friday, acting as the ultimate macro volatility trigger. The CLARITY Act vote is scheduled for September 15, though passage chances appear near zero. The critical Fed policy decision arrives September 16, with rate hike odds currently hovering around 60%. Patience matters immensely when macroeconomic uncertainty reaches these extreme historical levels. We would rather react to explicit data confirmation than force a leveraged trade based on a guess. Chasing price action into a major central bank decision is a recipe for disaster. Let the central bank mechanics and political headlines reveal the true market direction. Bitcoin at the Brink as On-Chain Data Shifts to Equities Bitcoin is currently testing a crucial inflection zone that demands strict risk management. We are watching Bitcoin retest the key daily RSI trendline that broke its long-term downtrend following a sharp 26% rally. The technical structure suggests imminent volatility, yet major resistance looms overhead. Historical precedent warns that peak cultural grift routinely marks local exhaustion for the market. Past cycles show celebrity
Oil flirting with $100 and stocks selling off. 🚨5 Smart Plays Between $100 Oil and the Inflation Trap Oil flirting with $100 and stocks selling off. Sep 8 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Overnight the U.S. and Iran kept trading blows around the Gulf, with tanker strikes, slower Hormuz traffic, and Houthi hits on Saudi energy sites pushing crude back toward the psychologically important $100 area. Wall Street was open again after the holiday and sold the open, stocks drifted lower as oil stayed bid and rate-hike odds held after last week’s hot jobs print. The live story is no longer a closed-market Asia tape. It is an energy shock sitting on top of Friday’s CPI and the mid-month Fed decision. Equities are treating $100 oil as an inflation problem, not a growth boom. Bitcoin is trading with that same risk tape, not against it. Sticky inflation plus a Hormuz premium is still the tax on duration and risk assets. That tax showed up first in crude, then in stocks and crypto. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL How does Bitcoin resolve its daily RSI retest ahead of CPI and the Fed? 🟢 Bullish breakout rally 🔴 Rejection / cycle top 🦀 Chop until FOMC Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Curve DAO(CRVUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – VVV(VVVUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – VeChain(VETUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Flare(FLRUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Dell Technologies (DELL) 1-Day Stop Trading Headlines. Start Trading Alpha. The desk that moves before the market does • Live community of traders who actually execute, not just talk • Real-time calls dropped while the candle is forming, not after it closes • 4.9/5 rating by 1000+ traders because signal beats noise, every single time Join 247 Research. Get the 24/7 terminal free. 50% off your first month, USE CODE: terminal ($100 off) Chart #1 – Curve DAO(CRVUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Curve DAO Token (CRV) has met strong supply after testing the $0.3900–$0.4000 resistance zone, printing a sharp bearish rejection candle back below the local shelf to trade around $0.3582 on the 1-day timeframe. Functioning as the governance and liquidity-incentive token for Curve Finance—a premier decentralized exchange protocol optimized for high-efficiency, low-slippage stablecoin and pegged-asset trading alongside its crvUSD collateralized debt engine—this short trade setup targets an extended mean-reversion drop toward the $0.2650–$0.2800 liquidity basin as long as overhead resistance holds below $0.3680–$0.4050. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.364 Stop Loss: $0.409 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.923 TP2: $0.264 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – VVV(VVVUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) VVV has completed a multi-week consolidation base and printed a bullish continuation candle, breaking above the $18.146 horizontal pivot to trade around $19.187 on the daily timeframe. Serving as the governance and incentive engine for high-throughput decentralized exchange infrastructure and automated market making liquidity pools, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $23.948 overhead resistance target as long as the $16.006–$18.146 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $18 Stop Loss: $16 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $21 TP2: $24 Chart #3 – VeChain(VETUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) VeChain has confirmed a bullish continuation following a sharp retest of its local breakout shelf, printing an expansive daily impulse candle to reclaim the $0.006740 level and trade around $0.007644 on the 1-day timeframe. Functioning as an enterprise-grade smart contract platform engineered for supply chain traceability, IoT data integration, and sustainability/carbon management via its dual-token model, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.008582 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.006198–$0.006740 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.0067 Stop Loss: $0.0061 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.0075 TP2: $0.0085 Chart #4 – Flare(FLRUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Flare has completed a multi-session pullback toward its previous breakout base, defending the horizontal pivot near $0.006376 to trade around $0.006529 on the daily timeframe. Functioning as an EVM-compatible Layer-1 data blockchain delivering decentralized, high-integrity oracles and cross-chain state connectivity via its native FTSO and State Connector protocols, this long trade setup targets an upward re-expansion toward the $0.008130 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.005971–$0.006376 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.0063 Stop Loss: $0.0059 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.0073 TP2: $0.0081 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Dell Technologies (DELL) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (DELL refers to the stock of Dell Technologies Inc. and not a cryptocurrency.) Dell has executed a decisive multi-candle impulse breakout from its multi-month ascending consolidation structure, clearing the previous high pivot at $474.74 to trade around $524.00 on the daily timeframe. Driven by strong enterprise AI server demand (PowerEdge XE clusters), high-density data center infrastructure deployments, and an expanding commercial PC refresh cycle, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $676.84 overhead target as long as the $416.22–$474.74 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $476 Stop Loss: $416 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $550 TP2: $676 Banter’s Take The Hormuz premium has stopp
MRMI climbed to -0.17. Still stuck in CAUTION mode. 🥛 Payrolls beat 162k vs 53k. Now what? 📈 MRMI climbed to -0.17. Still stuck in CAUTION mode. John Gillen GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that knows that Scott Bessent just won a fistfight with the Yen, and no matter how you look at it, that’s pretty impressive. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ Get a job. ✍️ Barely bullish. 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: “We’re at the End of the Beginning” - Tokenization Is About to Get Much Bigger . 🍪 Is Robinhood a buy, hold, or sell? Our analysts gave their takes. Milk Road is booking Q4 sponsorships now. If you want to reach 88,000 crypto and AI investors a day, book a call now. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. GET A JOB The headline allocation posture for the Milk Road Macro Index moved up to -0.17. Not quite out of CAUTION yet, but the good news is that both the economy and the market pillars are pulling in the same direction. Source: Milk Road Macro Index Let’s break it down. Friday's payrolls beat expectations like Bessent beat the Japanese Yen. 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus. Yuge. This drove growth impulses to spike so much higher that it single-handedly nudged the real economy score to -0.05. This means that the economy's underlying strength is beginning to register in market signals too. Bullish! The macro buffer remains at its maximum at +0.50 with stress at +0.04, and it is still the primary reason the posture is CAUTION rather than RISK OFF. A labor market that keeps surprising to the upside, GDPNow holding third-quarter growth at 4.7%, and services activity near multi-year highs collectively give the economy pillar its full backstop even as questions about interest rate hikes still loom over the markets. Now, let’s actually talk about the markets. YOUR COMPETITOR IS PROBABLY READING THIS This slot is usually paid for. But today it's ours, so here's the pitch. Here's what sponsoring Milk Road actually gets you: 88,000 opens per crypto newsletter send 187,000 unique readers across Milk Road newsletters every month 500K+ followers and subscribers across crypto, AI and stocks 3,400 paying PRO members If you run marketing at a crypto, AI or fintech company, we're booking Q4 sponsorships now. 👉 See the Sponsor Deck or book 15 minutes And if that's not you, forward this to whoever it is. BARELY BULLISH Market momentum climbed to +0.08, but the market pillar remains fragile. Kind of like the Yen proved to be fragile when Bessent started throwing hands. Sorry, we’re doing Bessent vs. Yen jokes in this one. I promise I will write new material next week. Anyway, market breadth is at -0.33 and financial conditions at +0.62, with the VIX now at 15.30. I know this is just a bunch of numbers, so let me explain what this means. It means the jobs-driven improvement in market momentum could easily reverse if Thursday's CPI release cracks the credit-and-volatility calm that financial conditions depend on. If the CPI print shows a surprise in the inflation data, it could crush the recent market momentum we’ve seen. The unresolved question of whether ISM services prices paid at 72.6 would pass through to consumers in the CPI remains unresolved. Right now, the inflation direction axis is holding at 0.00 because the core Consumer Price Index has not yet moved, but September hike odds are now near 60% and Hormuz-linked energy costs are still a concern. This means that a hot CPI print would likely carry more weight than it would in a calmer environment. A core monthly print at or above 0.3% would flip the inflation axis positive, begin eroding the macro buffer, and likely drag market momentum back toward zero. That would point the posture of the index back toward a RISK OFF print. A soft CPI number leaves the full backstop in place and clears the framework's path back toward full RISK ON. What do I think? I’m not concerned about inflation, rate hikes, or the setup for the market for the moment. I think there is going to be a lot of volatility and lower volume ahead of the midterm, but overall, I do think the bull market will recover and remain strong. If you want to see how the other Milk Road analysts and I are navigating these markets in our portfolios, join Milk Road PRO today for just a buck and steal all of our best investment ideas. See you there, but in the meantime, stay safe, stay educated, and stay bullish! BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Do you trade options? Optionality is a free trading community with 14 active traders averaging 80% per call.* Privacy is winning: Privacy is the only sector that's up since Bitcoin topped last October. Question: Is Robinhood a buy, hold, or sell? Our analysts gave their takes. Drop yours here… Lyn Alden: The fiscal dominance era will likely be measured in decades rather than years. *this is sponsored content. 👉 See the Sponsor Deck or book 15 minutes RATE TODAY’S EDITION What'd you think of today's edition? 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 F**king great 🥛🥛🥛 Meh, do better 🥛 You didn't bring the heat MILKY MEMES 🤣 Source: @boldleonidas Source: @ToolySOL ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛 VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada
Plus: LIV Golf files | Tuesday, September 08, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Sep 08, 2026 Tuesday ✅. Today's newsletter is 785 words, a 3-minute read. 📉 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.6%. 🔥 Today's stock spotlight: Intel (+9.1%) rose after Digitimes reported the company plans to raise PC processor prices by about 10% starting in early October. 1 big thing: Robinhood doubles down on predictions Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios Robinhood is expanding its prediction markets offerings, defying critics and plunging ahead despite looming uncertainty over the regulatory future of event contracts. 🤝 The investment app signed a multiyear deal to route event contract volume through the derivatives exchange and clearinghouse of Crypto.com spinoff OG.com. Robinhood will get a stake in both businesses after the spinoff. 💰 Flashback: Citadel Securities backed Crypto.com this summer, valuing it at $20 billion, including a $5 billion valuation for OG.com. ↔️ The intrigue: The deal reflects Robinhood's bid to diversify its prediction market strategy. The firm last year launched a prediction markets hub with Kalshi floating the contracts, including sports. Robinhood will continue to route contracts to Kalshi, plus ForecastEX and Rothera, The Block reports — but the Crypto.com deal gives it an incentive to shift more volume toward its new portfolio company. A Kalshi spokesperson said the deal doesn't affect its arrangement with Robinhood. ⚠️ Friction point: Critics say placing prediction markets alongside conventional investment opportunities creates a slippery slope for retail investors. "A bet on a football game does not become an investment simply because it appears next to your retirement account," Mick Mulvaney, executive director of the Gambling is Not Investing coalition, said in an emailed statement. Supporters say that prediction markets are a legitimate financial product regulated by the CFTC. ⚖️ What we're watching: Whether the Supreme Court opts to decide if prediction markets should be regulated by the CFTC or by state gaming commissions. If the court takes the case and sides with the states, it could create a major roadblock for Robinhood and others offering event contracts to customers. Go deeper 2. 🛢️ Oil surge Data: Financial Modeling Prep ; Chart: Pete Gannon/Axios Oil prices rose again today, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, trading this afternoon above $99 a barrel, a level last hit in late July, Axios' Pete Gannon writes . The latest jump was sparked by an attack on Saudi energy facilities by Houthi rebels, though crude has been climbing since early August as the Middle East conflict triggers worries about global supplies. 🤔 Yes, but: With tensions raging all summer over the Strait of Hormuz, why the sudden surge in prices now? 🗣️ What they're saying: Rapidan Energy Group president Bob McNally offered a three-part answer in an interview with CNBC today: China is ramping up crude imports, adding pressure on supplies. Supplies have been bolstered by releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve , which are set to wind down. McNally described a boy-who-cried-wolf situation in reverse: An "entrenched optimism bias" has persisted all summer, with investors believing peace was "just around the corner," he said. Now, that optimism is starting to fade. 3. Other happenings Bryson DeChambeau reacts after a missed putt during the LIV Golf Indianapolis tournament on Aug. 23. Photo: Michael Miller/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images ⛳️ LIV Golf filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today, saying it has secured a restructuring support agreement from an arm of BC Partners to reorganize operations and emerge "majority owned by players." ( Axios ) 📊 Qualcomm shares jumped after the company announced a data center infrastructure partnership with Amazon Web Services. It's a concrete vote of confidence in its new focus on AI processors. ( CNBC ) 🚙 Ford received a letter from the Trump administration expressing "profound concern" about the automaker's ties to Chinese companies. ( Reuters ) 👾 AI coding startup Cognition raised $2 billion in a deal that values the maker of engineering agent Devin at $48 billion. ( Bloomberg ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Sports media's next big opportunity Sports rights are becoming an even more valuable media asset. Rising rights fees, streaming ad demand and growing interest in women's sports are creating new upside well beyond ticket sales. The latest Media Trends Executive analysis examines how sports are reshaping the media business — and where the biggest opportunities are emerging. Read the full analysis. 4. 🍿 Coming attractions Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes arrives at a federal prison in Bryan, Texas, on May 30, 2023. Photo: Sergio Flores/Bloomberg via Getty Images Two new buzzy movie trailers provide a glimpse at how Hollywood is set to depict two major business stories: 🩸"You Can See Everything": The once-secret documentary — which chronicles Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in her final days before going to prison — premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and hits theaters in October. A teaser trailer released online yesterday shows an awkward interview with co-director Nathan Fielder as she defends her actions. 💼 "Artificial": The movie starring Andrew Garfield as Sam Altman tracks the OpenAI co-founder's firing and rehiring in 2023, when ChatGPT was still in its nascent phases. "We don't teach it. It teaches itself," someone says in the trailer released online today. 💭 Nathan's thought bubble: I'll have to see both of these, if only to keep up with the conversation! A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Media is shifting fast. Our reporters see it first. Sara Fischer and Kerry Flynn go deeper than the headlines — tracking the deals, disruptions, and strategic shifts that define where the media industry is heading. Media Trends Executive is their members-only briefing, written for leaders who can't afford to be caught off guard. 🔒 Become
When banks bank for banks Byron Gilliam “The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero.” — Patrick McKenzie Matryoshka money laundering Lucy Edwards, a relationship manager at the Bank of New York, opened an account in 1995 for Benex International Co., a defunct company with an empty office in Queens, NY. Benex was owned by her husband, Peter Berlin, who allowed one of Edwards’ customers, Russia’s Depozitarno-Kliringovy Bank (DKB), to use the company’s account to move money in and out of the Bank of New York (BoNY). DKB was provided with Bank of New York software that allowed customers to independently wire money out of their accounts. Over the subsequent four years, the Russian bank used the software to move an estimated $7 billion in and out of the Bank of New York on behalf of its own customers. Regulators recognized this for what it was: correspondent banking. “I agreed to actively assist DKB to operate what was, in effect, a banking business in the United States,” Berlin later confessed, “even though none of these entities had a license from the US government to operate as a bank or to operate a branch or agency in the United States.” “Correspondent banking” is banking for banks: when a US bank opens an account that lets a non-US bank move dollars on behalf of its customers, for example. (Because US dollars can only move between US banks.) It's the arrangement that lets the rest of the world do business in dollars, which is good: It allows US dollars to facilitate global trade, to everyone’s advantage — and the US’ advantage most of all. Sometimes it is bad. DKB used the Benex account to help customers evade Russia’s capital controls by switching their rubles into dollars and moving them offshore. In other words, Benex was using its BoNY account to act as a correspondent bank. Sometimes it was used for legitimate Russian businesses fearing the chaotic Russian government would appropriate its assets. Other times it was mobsters, oligarchs, and corrupt politicians. It did this illegally. The Bank of New York did not know that’s how its account was being used. That means it wasn’t technically correspondent banking — it was just a regular corporate account being misused. But it was the first high-profile case to expose the Achilles’ heel of correspondent banking: A correspondent bank does not know who its customers’ customers are. Or what they’re up to. Before the BoNY-DKB scandal, correspondent banking had received little attention as a conduit for international money laundering. After the scandal, it received congressional scrutiny that ended in new rules and regulations enacted in 2001: Section 312 of the Patriot Act aimed to make the global banking system easier to police by requiring US banks to vet their correspondent relationships more rigorously. Twenty-five years later, it remains a work in progress. Between 2004 and 2007, Wachovia, a US bank, processed an estimated $378 billion in transactions for Mexican and Colombian casas de cambio without giving much thought to who was ultimately behind the transactions. The Justice Department later determined that it was often drug cartels. Prosecutors said the large batches of “sequentially numbered travellers checks” deposited by the casas should have set off alarm bells in Wachovia’s compliance department. To the extent they did, they were ignored. Between 2010 and 2014, at least $13 billion was laundered through US correspondent banks moving money on behalf of Latvia’s Trasta Komercbanka. Trasta, in turn, was moving money on behalf of Moldova’s Moldindconbank, whose customers could not have passed KYC anywhere else. It was a matryoshka stacking doll of access to the US financial system: A US bank banking for a Latvian bank, banking for a Moldovan bank, banking for a shell company. Moldindconbank proved to be at the center of a money laundering scheme involving payments on defaulted loans ordered by a Moldovan judge because they were “guaranteed” by a Moldovan citizen. One such citizen was Ruslan Siloci, who lived with his parents in the impoverished town of Căuşeni. He was listed as majority shareholder in a company that supposedly owed $500 million to its creditors. Between 2007 and 2015, Danske Bank’s branch office in Estonia moved over $160 billion through US correspondent banks. Much of this was for high-risk customers, including "politically exposed persons” who typically wouldn’t pass KYC at a US bank — like Vladimir Putin’s cousin, Igor Putin, for example. To atone for its willful failure to properly KYC its customers, Danske pled guilty to charges of conspiracy to commit bank fraud and agreed to forfeit $2.06 billion of revenue to US and Danish authorities. The US banks that actually processed the payments were found to be in the clear. In fact, prosecutors identified them as the victims: By failing to disclose the high-risk nature of its customers, Danske had defrauded the correspondent banks that gave it access to the US banking system. In 2026, it’s still happening. This weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian interests continue to move billions of dollars through the US banking system. None have an account with a US bank. Instead, they have accounts with banks that have an account with a US bank. For example, the US Treasury has identified the UAE branch of Egypt’s Banque Misr as having routed as much as $1.8 billion through US correspondent banks on behalf of companies believed to be part of “Iranian shadow-banking networks.” The Journal reports that US officials have warned foreign and domestic banks to do more to cut that network off from the US financial system. But the US Treasury also implicitly acknowledged there’s not much it can do: The punishment for Banque Misr is that its UAE branch will be denied access to correspondent banks. After a 30-day grace period, that is. Banque Misr itself will continue to bank with the US. The tough talk and weak action are a recognition of an unavoidable tradeoff: Cracking