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Zbieżność czasowa, nie dowód przyczyny — sprawdź sam.
Clarity fades while the discount rate does the damage Surging 5% Treasury Yields Collide With CLARITY Gridlock Clarity fades while the discount rate does the damage Sep 15 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors U.S. 10-year Treasury yields violently broke above 5.04% this morning. This officially marks the first time we have seen these levels since 2007. This brutal milestone instantly puts immense pressure on the entire risk-asset complex. While macro forces shatter expectations, the digital asset market is facing its own crisis today. The highly anticipated CLARITY Act cloture vote happens this afternoon. Senator Cynthia Lummis confidently declared yesterday that this bill would enable banks to buy Bitcoin. But Democrats have aggressively rejected the latest revised draft over ethics and enforcement disputes. Now, the market rapidly realizes yesterday’s massive sentiment pump was simply organized exit liquidity. Everything is deeply interconnected across these highly volatile global markets right now. We squarely face a hawkish Fed policy decision tomorrow and a massive legislative test today. Here is exactly what our desk is closely watching. TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Clarity’s Pump Looks Like Exit Liquidity Senator Cynthia Lummis sold the revised text as the finish line. After a year of talks, Republicans released what they called the final draft. They said it included more than 120 Democratic requests. Lummis said President Trump accepted new ethics restrictions covering elected officials, judges, and spouses. She also said the bill would let banks freely buy and hold Bitcoin and other crypto. That channel, she argued, could trigger one of the largest capital inflows in American history. The House already passed its version 294–134. On paper, that is the institutional bid the market has been waiting for. The market bought the story for a few hours. Polymarket’s “signed into law in 2026” contract jumped toward 34% after the Sunday text drop. Then Democrats said no. Sen. Elizabeth Warren called the ethics title a “weak fig leaf.” Sen. Mark Warner said it was “not near enough.” A coalition of 18 state attorneys general, led by New York’s Letitia James, warned the draft would blunt state fraud cases. Bank groups flagged stablecoin rewards as a deposit drain. Overnight, Democrats sent a counterproposal from talks in Chuck Schumer’s office. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt still said he felt “very good.” The contract did not. This afternoon’s vote is cloture on the motion to proceed, not final passage. It still needs 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats. They need at least seven Democrats or independents if the conference holds. Even a win only opens debate. The bill then needs Senate passage, House reconciliation, and a signature before year-end on a shrinking calendar. That is why our crypto market analysis treats yesterday’s spike as liquidity, not confirmation. If cloture fails, the 2026 legislative path effectively dies. Enforcement stays with the SEC and CFTC under current law. Citadel, BlackRock, and the broker stack can wait. Price will not. Five Percent Is the New Discount Rate The bond market did not wait for the Fed. The 10-year yield jumped to 5.025% after tagging. The 30-year sits near 5.38%. CME FedWatch prices a 25 bp hike on Wednesday at roughly 92%. That would lift the funds range from 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00%. It would be the first hike since July 2023. August CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year. That is the Fed policy backdrop for this two-day meeting. Four forces are doing the work, and they are not all growth: Oil prices: Energy is feeding the inflation impulse again. Prints this week have Brent near or above $108 on some tapes and WTI in the high $90s on others. Geopolitical risk around Iran and supply routes is keeping crude bid. Inflation: Price pressure remains above the 2% target. Core is not giving the committee an easy off-ramp into Wednesday’s statement. Debt supply: Heavy government and corporate issuance is hitting the long end. Official foreign demand is thinner than it was in the QE years. Fed path: Markets are not just pricing Wednesday. They are pricing the risk that oil keeps the committee hiking after this meeting. A market pulse cited in the tape put roughly 78% of professionals in a camp that sees a 10% S&P correction risk if the 10-year lives between 5% and 5.75%. We are inside that band before the statement, the dots, or the press conference. That is why semiconductor stocks and unprofitable growth are the first to feel it. Future cash flows get cheaper when the risk-free alternative pays 5%. Equities can ignore that for a session. They cannot ignore it if 5% becomes the floor. Macro trading here starts with the long bond, then maps to duration-heavy equities, then to crypto. Bitcoin Trades the Cost of Money Bitcoin does not yield. That is the whole problem in this tape. When Treasuries clear 5%, the opportunity cost of holding a non-cash-flow asset rises in a straight line. Our research has seen this movie on prior CLARITY delays, legislative uncertainty plus tighter financial conditions, then a risk-off print in BTC. Spot is holding the high $76,000s after failing
Iran and Saudi pipeline issues keep oil elevated 🚨5 Levels To Watch as Hike odds Becomes the Base Case Iran and Saudi pipeline issues keep oil elevated Sep 15 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Oil is still doing the inflation work. Weekend supply risk around Iran and the Saudi East-West line left crude elevated, so the market is pricing energy and shipping first, not a clean demand boom. Bonds are not hedging it. The 10-year has pushed through 5% into Wednesday’s Fed decision, hike odds are the base case, and equities are reading that as a tightening problem. Chips and the broader growth tape are fading on higher energy and a firmer dollar. Bitcoin is holding its range and trading the policy calendar more than a crash tape. Clarity is unresolved into today’s Senate vote, but the tax still hits crude first, then yields, then stocks. Bitcoin stays the relative exception until the next policy test lands. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Trading apps dominate record on-chain protocol fees. What sector leads next? 🦄 DEXs 📈 Perps 🎲 Predictions Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Ethereum(ETHUSDT) 4-Hour Chart #2 – Kaspa(KASUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – Algorand(ALGOUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Ether.fi (ETHFIUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Bloom Energy (BE) 1-Day TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Chart #1 – Ethereum(ETHUSDT) 4-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Ethereum has failed to sustain its upward expansion following a sharp liquidity sweep up to $2,660+, rolling over and breaking below the $2,500 horizontal pivot to trade near $2,479.03 on the 4-hour timeframe. Functioning as the primary smart contract settlement layer for decentralized finance, liquid restaking ecosystems, and institutional Layer-2 rollups, this short trade setup targets an extended mean-reversion drop toward the range liquidity lows around $2,235–$2,250 as long as overhead resistance caps pullbacks below the $2,500–$2,625 zone. Trade Levels: Entry: $2504 Stop Loss: $2626 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $2350 TP2: $2220 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Kaspa(KASUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Kaspa has printed a bearish distribution pattern following a sharp impulse toward the $0.04000 psychological resistance, losing its local consolidation shelf to trade around $0.03403 on the 1-day timeframe. Built on the GHOSTDAG/Knighth consensus protocol as a high-speed, proof-of-work blockDAG that processes multiple blocks simultaneously with instant transaction sequencing, this short trade setup targets an extended mean-reversion drop toward the $0.02700 liquidity shelf as long as overhead resistance caps pullbacks below the $0.03550–$0.03900 zone. Trade Levels: Entry: $1.538 Stop Loss: $1.321 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.873 TP2: $2.292 Chart #3 – Algorand(ALGOUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Algorand has defended its ascending structure with a bullish continuation candle off the retest shelf, sustaining price above the $0.0951 horizontal pivot to trade near $0.0981 on the daily timeframe. Designed as a highly scalable, carbon-negative Layer-1 blockchain powered by Pure Proof-of-Stake (PPoS) consensus to deliver instant finality, low transaction costs, and institutional-grade infrastructure for decentralized finance and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $0.1189 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.0872–$0.0951 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.096 Stop Loss: $0.072 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.104 TP2: $0.118 Chart #4 – Ether.fi (ETHFIUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) ether.fi has retraced into a textbook retest of its ascending trendline and breakout shelf, maintaining market structure above the $0.5877 horizontal pivot to trade near $0.6164 on the daily timeframe. Operating as a decentralized, non-custodial liquid restaking protocol on Ethereum,granting stakers complete custody of their private keys while automating native yield and Actively Validated Services (AVS) rewards via EigenLayer integration,this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.8237 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.5021–$0.5877 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.587 Stop Loss: $0.502 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.680 TP2: $0.823 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Bloom Energy (BE) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (BE refers to the stock of Bloom Energy and not a cryptocurrency.) Bloom Energy has completed an impulsive breakout above its multi-month consolidation structure, pulling back to test its prior breakout shelf around the $228.47 horizontal pivot to trade near $257.05 on the daily timeframe. Operating as an on-site commercial power provider engineered around solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology and high-efficiency electrol
The EPA is rolling back power plant emissions limits... September 15, 2026 Presented By Hello there, and happy National IT Professionals Day. It’s a great day to be extra nice to the person who tries their absolute hardest not to roll their eyes while explaining that the problem sending you into a panic spiral can be solved by rebooting your computer. —Dave Lozo, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Neal Freyman, Abby Rubenstein In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: The EPA getting rid of rules limiting power plant emissions The fallout from AI executives wanting to slow down The people seeing the best job market in decades Markets Nasdaq 26,186.41 -0.56% S&P 7,619.98 -0.48% Dow 52,421.2 -0.29% 10-Year 4.961% -1.0 bps Bitcoin $78,627.12 +2.54% Intel $97.19 -5.59% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: It was a new week but not a new narrative for investors yesterday with stocks falling as bond yields and oil prices rose. Companies with an AI connection, like chipmakers Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, took a hit amid calls from CEOs of the companies making the models to slow down development (more on that below). CHANGE IS IN THE AIR EPA is unwinding rules that limit carbon emissions Jon Cherry/Getty Images Reports early yesterday speculated that the Trump administration would roll back carbon pollution standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants…and it turns out that where there’s smoke, there’s fire. With the G20 energy summit in Houston as a backdrop, the EPA announced the controversial moves later in the day, saying the changes will save the energy industry more than $300 billion and “unleash” American energy. What’s changing: Essentially, all Obama and Biden-era climate-protection measures that required gas plants to burn cleaner fuels and coal plants to capture most of their emissions by 2039 will be eliminated. These changes will take effect shortly after the agency officially publishes them. In a separate rule proposed yesterday, the EPA will also argue that greenhouse gases do not endanger human health or the environment. This could prevent future administrations from reinstituting the restrictions. The science: If the US power sector were a country, it would be the world’s sixth-largest greenhouse gas emitter, according to an NYU analysis of 2022 emissions data. The regulations being wiped away could prevent ~30,000 deaths, according to Associated Press research. Even a partial unraveling, per the AP, would lead to more smog, mercury, and lead in the air (though some restrictions on mercury and other contaminants will remain in place even if all the climate rules go). With great power… …comes great (or at least more) AI data centers. Coal plants said that capturing and storing carbon underground, as required by the EPA’s old regulations, was so cost-prohibitive that they had to close. Since 2010, 330 coal plants have retired and another 60 have announced plans to shut down by 2031, according to the Sierra Club. Making it cheaper to use fossil fuels coincides with the push from the tech sector to build more data centers that have been straining grids and driving up energy prices for consumers. Looking ahead… The new rules are expected to face legal challenges from environmental groups hoping to block them. —DL Sponsored By Doroni Up, up, and a way to get in on this boom Flying car company stocks are soaring on Wall Street. Archer went public at $1.7 billion. EHang IPO’d at $662 million. And Joby went public via SPAC at a whopping $6.6 billion valuation. Luckily, 15k+ investors have found an early-stage opportunity to capture this boom: the private company, Doroni . They’re pioneering personal flying cars with their H1-X, the aircraft FOX Business called “the ‘flying car’ set to revolutionize personal air travel.” With 600+ preorders, they’re targeting commercial deliveries for 2028. Earlier this year, they reserved the Nasdaq ticker $DRNI , and with Morgan Stanley projecting the flying car industry will reach $1 trillion by 2040, the timing is right. Invest today for bonus shares . World Tour de headlines Ronaldo Bolaños / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images 📺 Widow’s Bay dominated at the Emmys. The horror-comedy scooped up 14 statuettes at the 78th Emmys, making the tech giant Apple the night’s biggest winner and setting a new high for a comedy. Its star, Matthew Rhys, not only won for best actor in a comedy series for the show, he also won the trophy for best actor a limited series for The Beast in Me —breaking two records , the first for winning two lead actor categories in one night and the second for having won for drama, comedy, and limited series during his career. He wasn’t the night’s only record-setter: Jean Smart became the first to win best actress in a comedy for all five seasons of a show for Hacks. Plus, Smart and Allison Janney both won their eighth acting Emmys, tying an existing record. The Pitt won for best drama. Last night’s Mariska Hargitay-hosted award show even managed to get in a pre-taped sketch featuring Taylor Swift and still end on time. Finally, here’s what everyone wore . 🇺🇸 The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%. The yield for the bonds, which is used as a benchmark for US mortgage and other loan rates, briefly reached 5.01% yesterday as rising oil prices due to the Iran war spurred inflation fears. It was the first time since 2023 and only the second time since 2007 that the yield breached 5%, a psychological milestone for investors. However, the yield (which moves inversely to bond prices) quickly dropped back below the threshold as oil price pressures eased somewhat and bond buyers emerged. High bond yields are one of the reasons all eyes are on the Fed’s interest rate-setting announcement tomorrow. The central bank is expected to raise rates—also for the first time since 2023. ✉️ SCOTUS rejects Trump’s limits on mail-in voting for the midterms. The Supreme Court y
Plus: Trump effect | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 15, 2026 🌮 Tuesday. Stock futures are pointing to another decline today, which would be the S&P 500's sixth drop in the last seven sessions. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note pushed to as high as 5.04% overnight. And crude oil prices continued to press higher. Buckle up. 🗓️ Today, Emily explains how the AI trade is evolving, as fears over the technology's potential doomsday effect are growing. And Matt takes a look at a few markets before and after a post from President Trump in yesterday's session. 💵 ICYMI: Axios BFD is back Nov. 17 in New York City with speakers including Omeed Malik, Goldman Sachs' Kim Posnett, baseball icon and investor Alex Rodriguez, Vista Equity Partners' Robert F. Smith, 1789 Capital's Donald Trump Jr. and more. Request an invite . Let's go! In 1,248 words, a 4.5-minute read. 1 big thing: Fear is ... bullish, actually By Emily Peck Data: Financial Modeling Prep ; Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Fear is splitting the AI trade — the same technology advances that are raising alarms about rogue agents, cyberattacks and apocalypse are creating a bull case for the companies paid to protect against those threats. Why it matters: Investors are, in a way, leaning into the scary AI talk, betting that companies and governments will increase cybersecurity spending to deal with rapidly advancing threats. The big picture: The mood around AI is darkening as long-simmering doomer fears are gaining more attention. Catch up quick: Over the weekend, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman and SpaceX's Elon Musk called for a slowdown in advancement of the most sophisticated models to effectively deal with safety risks, calling it "pacing the frontier." State of play: That seemed to spook investors yesterday, pushing down stocks in sectors connected to the AI trade, like chip and memory companies. Surging oil prices and the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield were also a factor. At the same time, stocks rose for cybersecurity companies. By the numbers: CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks — two of the largest cybersecurity companies — were up roughly 14% and 13%, respectively, yesterday. Both stocks have basically doubled over the past six months, sharply outperforming chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom. (See chart above). Zoom in: The scary AI headlines this weekend and earlier have been a useful marketing tool. "I spent eight years trying to convince people cybersecurity is important. Dario did it in one week — better than me, clearly," Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora told a Goldman Sachs conference last week, per an AlphaSense transcript. Earlier this month, Arora said on an earnings call that "AI represents a significant long-term tailwind that is expanding our total addressable market in network security." Even if the frontier labs Anthropic and OpenAI slow down development, there are still risks from Chinese AI models, which are gaining ground. What to watch: This is all moving at breakneck speed, and the AI cybersecurity market is still getting built. Flashback: The cybersecurity industry shifted earlier this year — after Axios reported that Anthropic's new model Mythos would make it far easier for cybercriminals to exploit software vulnerabilities. This "Mythos moment" made clear how quickly cybersecurity threats can erupt now, Palo Alto Networks' Arora said on the earnings call. Flaws that used to take months for humans to uncover can now be exploited in minutes, he said. That's driving spending for companies and revenue for cybersecurity businesses. Zoom out: Gartner estimated in January that spending on AI cybersecurity will total $51.3 billion worldwide this year, and grow to $86 billion in 2027. Yes, but: That's a small fraction of the more than $2.5 trillion in total AI spend for 2026. Between the lines: AI may or may not end humanity, but in the meantime it's accelerating risks that governments and businesses need to manage — and that costs money. Reality check: It also raises risks for businesses. "As an investor, I'm far less worried about AI ending humanity than about it causing operational or security failures with real financial consequences," Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert, told Axios recently. Malek pointed to the example of CrowdStrike, which released a flawed software update a few years ago that wiped out a good chunk of its market cap. "That's the more realistic template for how an AI stumble — not a doomsday scenario, but an operational one — would actually hit a portfolio." A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less With AI upending work and life, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz, the bestselling authors of "Smart Brevity" offer a one-stop survival guide to dramatically improving your life, work and happiness. The idea: Toxic complexity clogs our inboxes and calendars. We can do more, but first we need to simplify. Get your copy. 2. Trump's postings may still move the needle By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips President Trump's claim that Ukraine agreed to halt strikes on Russian energy targets coincided with a pullback in oil prices and Treasury yields yesterday. Why it matters: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia have crippled large swaths of the country's refining capacity, creating embarrassing shortages and prompting Russian officials to curtail exports to shore up domestic supplies. Russia has long been one of the world's largest exporters of diesel, and its export ban contributed to a worldwide ripple of diesel fuel shortages and price spikes, including in the U.S., where the national average price for diesel jumped to $6 per gallon in recent days. What they're saying: "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World's Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran. President DJT," Trump posted. The other side: The Ukrain
Plus: How advisors can help younger clients navigate riskier investments. September 15, 2026 PRESENTED BY Good morning. Advisors are interested in crypto … just not right now. At a recent Bitwise presentation, Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen polled an audience of hundreds of wealth managers on whether they currently allocate client money to crypto. More than two-thirds said they don’t. But when asked whether they plan to start in the next year, nearly the same share said they do. For now, equities and fixed income remain the bread and butter for advisors. Crypto? Well, much like cleaning out a cluttered garage, it seems they’ll get around to it one of these days. INDUSTRY NEWS Anthropic Moves Deeper into Financial Services with Claude for Advisors Photo via VCG/Newscom Move over, X. This might be the real everything app. Anthropic released Claude for Financial Advisors yesterday, a suite of AI tools designed to help wealth managers with research, portfolio oversight, administrative tasks and more. Essentially, it’s an AI layer that connects Claude to the disparate programs and tools advisors already use, including platforms and data providers from BlackRock to Charles Schwab, Addepar, Envestnet, iCapital, Orion, Wealthbox, Wealth.com and Zocks. The launch marks the latest move from Anthropic to embed itself in the financial services industry. Earlier this year, the company released 10 AI agents designed for financial workflows, including building pitchbooks, screening Know Your Customer (KYC) files maintained for compliance and reviewing financial statements. Major institutions including Goldman Sachs and Citi have deployed the technology across their operations. All Aboard Charles Schwab will be the platform’s debut custodian, and it aims to bring Claude for Financial Advisors to the more than 16,000 RIAs it serves. “Anthropic is building AI at the frontier of what’s possible,” Jon Beatty, head of Schwab Advisor Services, said in a statement. “Bringing this solution directly to our clients, purpose-built for the environment they operate in, is how we help advisors claim the next frontier of advice.” Anthropic’s statement announcing the new product included a whopping 18 comments from a who’s who of wealth management. “I don’t want my CFPs spending hours every week laboring over CRM updates and task assignments,” said Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz. “I want them talking to clients and engaged in the planning itself, because that’s the part clients truly value.” Dynasty Financial Partners CEO Shirl Penney said, “This is the moment the industry stops adapting to AI and starts running on it.” If You Build It, They Will Come. Anthropic isn’t alone in its Wall Street pursuits. Just last week, OpenAI released ChatGPT for Financial Services, which caters to investment bankers and equity researchers. And it’s no mystery why AI firms are increasingly cozying up to wealth management firms: They spend a lot of money on building out their AI capabilities, and they plan on spending even more. Cerulli expects AI spending per firm to reach nearly $500,000 this year, more than double last year’s total. In the here and now, meanwhile, Monday’s announcement was nothing if not timely. Anthropic is no doubt eager to remind people of the benefits of artificial intelligence after a spree of headlines warning that unfettered development of the technology may pose an existential threat to the human race. Written by Griffin Kelly PRESENTED BY XTRACKERS BY DWS Invest in the Architects of AI’s Future While many investors have gained AI exposure through a handful of well-known technology companies, the opportunity extends beyond today’s market leaders. Behind every breakthrough are companies building the software, data infrastructure, and intellectual property powering AI’s next wave of innovation. The Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence and Big Data ETF (XAIX) is designed to help you capture that broader opportunity for your clients. The fund can hold up to 100 companies, with a 4.5% cap on individual holdings , helping maintain diversified exposure across the AI value chain. XAIX invests in the developers and enablers who are driving AI advancement. As AI adoption expands, XAIX lets you give your clients access to the businesses building tomorrow’s AI landscape, not just today’s dominant names. See how XAIX can diversify your clients’ AI exposure. * FINANCIAL PLANNING PEPs Are Popping Seven Years After Secure Act Passage Pooled employer plans are getting more PEP in their step every day. Established under the Secure Act of 2019, PEPs allow multiple unrelated employers to participate in a single retirement plan while delegating most administrative and fiduciary responsibilities to the pooled plan provider. Seven years on, the pooled employer plan marketplace shows both signs of maturity and room for improvement, with multiple providers now boasting over $5 billion in assets. The most recent to pass that milestone was The Standard, whose research shows 83% of participating employers are satisfied with their experience. Financial advisors agreed that PEPs have become a helpful tool, especially for resource-strapped business owners. Not all plans are created equal, though, so it’s important for clients to do their homework before signing up. “Business owners and HR like the idea of offering retirement benefits, but they wear so many hats these days that running a plan can feel like a big lift,” said Steve Chappell, assistant vice president of retirement plan sales at The Standard. “Going with a PEP isn’t for everyone, but it solves a lot of those concerns.” Pros and Cons Employers have a duty to monitor the work of their PEP provider, but they are otherwise freed from the burdens of investment selection, plan documentation, participant communications and more. Financial advisors told Advisor Upside this framework has mostly served clients well. “Many business owners value flexibility and simplicity, which these plans can
Plus: Why investors are hanging out at the mall. September 15, 2026 PRESENTED BY ALUMNI VENTURES Good morning. Fifteen years ago, the role of the CFO (or, at least, the perception) was to close the books at month-end and deliver bland remarks at the start of an earnings call. The role has evolved, and so has the perception. For starters, CFOs are now increasingly the quarterbacks of the entire operation. M&A, capital allocation, storytelling for the board, technology transformation and global ops — it’s all increasingly in the remit of the CFO. That’s why we are launching CFO Upside , a vertical custom-built for CFOs (and CFOs to-be). Don’t think about it as “another newsletter,” but more as your thought partner with exclusive data, analysis, benchmarking and trade secrets on growing a career while serving the board, shareholders, and, yes, your family. MARKETS S&P 500 7,619.98 ▼ -0.48% DJI 52,421.20 ▼ -0.29% NVDA $210.96 ▼ -3.36% Stock data as of market close on September 14, 2026. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Will Doomsayers Derail Anthropic’s Mega IPO? Photo via Vincent Isore/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom Last week gave us the apocalyptic AI tweet heard around the world, though not everyone is taking it seriously. The President called it a “hoax.” The Chinese government has called it “fearmongering.” Wall Street, however, sees it as a liability matter, especially for Anthropic. Former researcher Jacob Coxon’s doomsday warning that AI might threaten human life by the end of the decade may have gotten the world’s attention, but top company leaders calling for a slowdown in development begs new questions about Anthropic’s hotly anticipated mega IPO. The frontier AI lab’s S-1 filing with the SEC is expected to be released publicly in the coming days or weeks, and it will likely face a fair bit of scrutiny if it fails to disclose an off-chance risk of accidental human extinction. Disclosure Day In that case, the S-1, filed confidentially in June, might draw legal challenges from IPO investors who could claim that they’re being misled by way of purposeful omission. At minimum, John Coffee, a securities law expert at Columbia Law School, told The Economist on Monday that the company may have to amend its S-1 registration, required for an IPO, to avoid or limit its liability for securities fraud. For OpenAI, the recent tumult is reason enough (or, at least, the company’s stated reason) to delay an IPO into next year. “Given everything happening with safety, this would right now be an ill-advised moment to go public,” founder and CEO Sam Altman told Fortune over the weekend . On the other hand, Anthropic founder and CEO Dario Amodei already has a long history of vocally outlining the potential existential risks associated with its AI. The company may well have included such risks in its SEC filings, and it still appears to be targeting the largest IPO in history, according to a recent Reuters report . In the meantime, it has plenty to boast about as it seeks its $2 trillion valuation: On Sunday, a day after Amodei called on the industry to slow the pace of AI development, the Financial Times reported that the company has recently told investors it reached annualized revenue of $65 billion at the end of July, up from $9 billion in December. The company also said adjusted operating income, which strips out some costs including stock-based compensation, is positive for the second straight quarter, according to the FT . The company further claims to have operating margins above 80%, excluding some costs. Power Play: In the meantime, its most pressing risk may not be an accidental AI-created plague or nuclear incident, but rather a simple lack of energy. According to a Moody’s report published Monday, AI firms will need $110 billion worth of new power plants to fuel their ambitions. Written by Brian Boyle PRESENTED BY ALUMNI VENTURES Waiting for the IPO Is Now Optional Photo via Alumni Ventures Sounding the opening bell at the exchange doesn’t seem to have the same ring to it nowadays. Companies are now staying private for longer , with the median time to IPO now 12 years as of last year. 1 By the time you typically get a shot at the ticker, most of the growth has already happened somewhere you couldn’t reach. But as access to private markets widens , investors like you are increasingly getting in earlier. This Thursday , Alumni Ventures’ Managing Partner Laura Rippy and The Daily Upside’s Founder & President Patrick Trousdale go live to discuss where durable opportunities are forming for accredited investors and how venture can fit alongside public equities and alternatives in a modern portfolio. Join the free live session this Thursday, September 17 at 3pm ET. HEALTHCARE No Mo’ Nordisk: Ozempic Maker Rebrands as Novo, Promises New Culture Novo Nordisk shot to corporate fame by trimming waistlines. On Monday, its name became the latest target for slimming down. The Danish pharma giant, best known for blockbuster GLP-1 drug Ozempic, announced it is now simply Novo. Unfortunately, while rebranding can make words disappear, the same does not ring true for business challenges. A revamp of Novo’s corporate culture, promised as part of the rebrand, might help, though the details are thin so far. What’s Old is Novo Again The name change arrives with Novo shares down 15% in 2026, despite the propitious launch of the oral version of its obesity drug Wegovy, which is massively outselling rival Eli Lilly’s competing Foundayo. Novo needed this financial and symbolic victory after spending the past two years ceding market share to Indianapolis-based Lilly, which now dominates the overall weight-loss market, holding a 60.9% market share to Novo’s 38.8% in the second quarter, according to IQVIA data. Meanwhile, the weight of Novo’s GLP-1 drugs in its portfolio is cause for concern. Earlier this month, Novo scrapped two trials for experimental cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab, once viewed by analysts as a $3 billion opportunity t
Top AI execs agree the tech has a problem... September 14, 2026 Presented By Thank you for being here, friend. The Golden Girls debuted on this day in 1985. Some Monday motivation: The show’s matriarch, Sophia, was only supposed to be an occasional presence. But the audience for the pilot episode became enamored of Estelle Getty’s portrayal, and she got promoted to a starring role. Literally main character energy. — Holly Van Leuven, Brendan Cosgrove, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: Dario Amodei taking his AI fears public Champagne becoming more alcoholic Céline Dion’s return to full concerts Markets: Year-to-Date Nasdaq 26,333.04 +13.30% S&P 7,656.98 +11.85% Dow 52,573.29 +9.38% 10-Year 4.975% +81.2 bps Bitcoin $77,259.05 -11.71% Dave & Buster’s $8.14 -49.78% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 10:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Last week, the markets demonstrated that a short week isn’t always a good one, as rising oil prices and inflation data brought stocks down. This week, investors are eager to hear from Fed Chair Kevin “Never Let Them Know Your Next Move” Warsh (more on that later). Stock spotlight: Dave & Buster’s shareholders haven’t had much fun this year, with the stock down more than 52% YTD, but new CEO Darin Harper will be looking to restart the party on today’s earnings call. Markets Sponsored by Northwestern Mutual Hit reset this fall: A simple plan to reclaim control of your money . Seven smart moves to make before year-end. BRAKE TIME? Amodei called for AI development to slow down Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Chance Yeh/Getty Images This weekend, lawmakers from both parties were united by one of the most powerful forces in American life—and that was after a council voted unanimously to rename Nashville’s airport for Dolly Parton. Their concern? AI is kinda unglued Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on his personal website on Saturday titled “We Must Pace the Frontier.” According to the tech founder: AI has grown “drastically faster” this summer. The OpenAI-Hugging Face hack is spooky because the AI agents involved became a “fanatically devoted collective” that sacrificed themselves “for the success of the group,” and attempted to keep human engineers from finding out what they did. Ergo, “in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet,” which would potentially cause “hundreds of billions of dollars in damage” and, you know, could topple civilization. Among his other ideas, Amodei called on all AI companies to implement embedded evaluators with “desks in our offices, access badges, and company laptops,” similar to what large banks have, to make sure everyone is indeed slowing the pace of progress. He announced that Anthropic has committed to this step “in the near future.” Legislators from both parties and the leaders of many AI companies spoke in support of Amodei’s ideas. Here’s a smattering of responses: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman , xAI CEO Elon Musk, Google DeepMind Chair Demis Hassabis, and other AI execs publicly supported Amodei. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang probably went 🤨. At a conference last week, he suggested that AI companies were ratcheting up hysteria because they plan to release new cybersecurity products, positing, “What better way to create demand than to create a problem?” President Trump said that he didn’t want to slow AI development because he wanted to keep ahead of China and “whoever wins AI wins.” Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida supported regulation and said, “Partisan politics aside…this will need to be a massive bipartisan mobilization of government to put the firewalls in effect.” Zoom out: Regulation in the US may be a long time coming, as lawmakers stress there is no quick fix. In the meantime, King Charles is convening AI leaders to talk this out , and Sam Altman said OpenAI’s IPO is postponed .— HVL Reader Poll How freaked out are you about AI following this weekend’s developments? Not at all. The same as I was. More than I was—!!! Less than I was; everyone seems aware of the risks. My perpetual feeling about AI is 😵💫. Sponsored By PwC Is your front office ready for AI? PwC is heading to Dreamforce 2026 as a Pioneer Sponsor and the official Executive Summit sponsor. So if you’ve been wondering what kinds of conversations will be taking place, get ready for some game changers. One question will be front and center: How can businesses leverage AI and agents to build real commercial impact? From scaling agent-assisted selling to modernizing customer service, PwC will be exploring what it takes to move AI from hype to business value . And there’s a reason to move quickly. Customers are already using AI agents to research products, compare prices, and buy. So if their AI is ready to buy, is yours ready to sell? See PwC’s vision for building an intelligent customer edge . World Tour de headlines President Trump and Shane Lowry at the Irish Open. Ramsey Cardy/Getty Images 🥃 President Trump visits Ireland, lifts tariff on Irish whiskey. Someone pour us up a double shot of whiskey: While presenting the trophy for the Irish Open golf tournament, held at his family’s resort in Doonbeg , Trump announced that he would rescind the 10% tariff on the Irish spirit, saying, “Everybody’s been bugging me” about it—including tournament winner Shane Lowry. The president also told reporters, “I don’t want to cause any problems, but I will tell you, I’d love to see [Ireland] unified. It’s going to happen eventually.” He drew the line at revealing his thoughts on Scottish independence, saying that he would “save that for another day.” 🇾🇪 Fighting in Yemen intensified over the weekend. Government forces in Yemen launched attacks against the Iran-aligned Houthis along the Red Sea, including on Houthi positions in Mokha, the port city that the rebels captured last week. The Houthis are escalating attacks on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arab
Plus: Apollo warning | Monday, September 14, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 14, 2026 👋 Welcome back! Oil and AI are roiling the market this morning. S&P 500 futures are down as fighting between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia intensified over the weekend. Houthi drone attacks forced the closure of a Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea, threatening 4% of global oil supplies, according to Reuters . Brent crude is trading above $107 a barrel 📉 Technology stocks, meanwhile, are falling after this weekend's joint call for a slowdown in AI development from top rivals Sam Altman of OpenAI and Dario Amodei of Anthropic. They say the industry needs to take more steps to ensure safety. (Just a few months ago, these guys wouldn't even shake hands!) Altman said his company would delay its IPO until at least next year. 👀 Investors' initial reaction to the idea of a pullback appears cool: Nasdaq futures are down 1.7%. Not too surprising, given that their expectations for AI are sky-high and buoying the stock market, as Matt explains below. Plus, Emily talked to author William Cohan, who is out with a huge new book on Apollo — and warning about some risks embedded within the giant asset manager. Let's get into it! In 1,311 words, a 5-minute read. 1 big thing: Why stocks are shrugging off rising interest rates By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips The escalating war with Iran and rising energy costs helped push up borrowing costs across the U.S. economy last week. Stocks largely yawned. Why it matters: It suggests that investors think it will take more than higher interest rates to slow the engine powering much of the market. The latest: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed to 4.97% Friday, near 2007 levels. A month ago, it was at 4.69%. Zoom out: That Treasury yield serves as part of the foundation for borrowing costs throughout the economy, from car loans to mortgages to multibillion-dollar corporate bond offerings. And those additional costs are a big part of the reason higher interest rates have long been seen as stock market kryptonite. But this year's higher rates and even the jump over the last few weeks haven't clobbered stocks — at least not yet. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up about 12%. Even with the run-up in yields last week, the index ended down less than 1%. Between the lines: What accounts for the stock market's resilience? Profits, for one thing. S&P 500 companies have posted rip-roaring profit growth in recent quarters, including a jump of more than 50% in earnings in the most recently reported quarter, compared with the prior year. Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips And what accounts for those profits? Any regular reader of Axios Markets knows the answer: It's the massive amount of capital spending for the AI boom. Yes, but: More and more, that boom is being funded by borrowing . So shouldn't rising rates and borrowing costs throw at least some sand in the gears? In theory, the answer is "yes." But in practice, it can also be "no." Zoom in: In competitive industries, higher rates would be something of a problem, as they would ultimately start to cut into relatively low expectations for profitability. If rising rates eat away deeply at those expected returns, the payoff on investing to build that business is no longer worth the squeeze. Reality check: AI doesn't really exist as a profitable business yet. So the profits are largely in the form of expectations in the minds of investors, analysts and executives. And as you might expect, they are sky-high. Stunning stat: A recent report from Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that hyperscalers could generate roughly $12 billion of after-tax operating profit per gigawatt of computing power, which would be a return on invested capital of roughly 30% — an unusually lucrative opportunity. Morgan Stanley analysts also sketched out a number of paths for hyperscalers and AI players that could lead to between 25% and 50% returns on invested capital, or ROIC. That's the key metric that everyone is watching on AI profitability. The bottom line: When expectations for profitability are that high, it would take an enormous increase in borrowing costs to make a dent in profit expectations big enough to quell the AI boom. What they're saying: "When you have 25%+ ROIC expectations, the sensitivity to the cost of borrowing for some of these companies is substantially less," Morgan Stanley fixed-income analyst Vishwanath Tirupattur tells Axios. "It doesn't mean that borrowing cost doesn't matter. It means that in a certain range, for certain issuers, it's less sensitive than some others." The big picture: This is what happens during a market boom. If additional borrowing expense doesn't really matter to investors — who are willing to pay a few extra percentage points in financing for the opportunity to make life-changing returns — it sometimes means rates have to go a lot higher than people expect before things cool off. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less With AI upending work and life, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz, the bestselling authors of "Smart Brevity" offer a one-stop survival guide to dramatically improving your life, work and happiness. The idea: Toxic complexity clogs our inboxes and calendars. We can do more, but first we need to simplify. Pre-order now. 2. Apollo's trigger point By Emily Peck Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios There's a warning about the financial system in the last chapter of William Cohan's new book , "Money to Burn: The Unvarnished Truth About Leon Black, Apollo, and the Rise of a New Wall Street." The latest: When asked in an interview on Slate's "Money" podcast this weekend if Apollo Global Management, which had more than $1 trillion under management as of the second quarter, could trigger a financial crisis, Cohan said: "Absolutely, yes." The big picture: The massive financial institution that Black helped create has evolved away
Can Meta, the tortoise, end up winning the consumer AI race? September 14, 2026 PRESENTED BY FERROVIAL Good morning and happy Monday. Remember when they were just for nerds? In recent months, a concerning number of malicious creators have reportedly used Meta smart glasses to secretly record themselves harassing and pranking strangers in order to post the footage online for attention and views. Internet users have even taken to calling the devices “pervert glasses.” Meta said earlier this month that it remotely disabled thousands of them after users tampered with the light that signals recording, while its Instagram subsidiary announced that users who post “harassing” videos shot with the smart glasses will be banned. There’s now an app for the problem, too. Thirty-year-old Polish software designer Pawel Szydlowski created Zuckoff, a free smartphone app that lets users detect the location of smart glasses around them by tracking their Bluetooth signatures. Since launching last month, it has gained roughly 5,000 users, he told Business Insider. In a world where smart glasses make some people dumber, it’s just too bad stupidity doesn’t project its own unique Bluetooth signal. MARKETS S&P 500 7,656.98 ▲ +0.86% DJI 52,573.29 ▲ +0.98% META $648.03 ▲ +0.57% Stock data as of market close on September 11, 2026. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Meta May Be an AI Winner After All: Morgan Stanley Photo via Louis Grasse/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom Mark Zuckerberg is having just about as tough a year as a centibillionaire can have. Shares of Meta are roughly flat year-to-date, lagging the broader market. The company just agreed to a landmark settlement with state attorneys general that could reshape it forever. And, worst of all, there’s yet another Aaron Sorkin-penned movie on the way. But there may yet be light at the end of the tunnel. Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak wrote in a note to clients that the company could win a sizable piece of the $30 trillion consumer AI pie, and said the company’s share price may gain 25% by New Year’s Eve. It’s a welcome endorsement for a company that long considered an AI also-ran. I Have Friends Everywhere Meta’s massive capex allocations belie the fact that it has all but forfeited the AI frontier to leading labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic. But Wall Street still sees plenty of value in an AI that’s less focused on disproving mathematical impossibilities and more focused on the everyday tasks of regular folks. And by that, of course, they mostly mean shopping. In the suddenly all-important race to build a consumer AI agent, Meta’s existing family of apps and gargantuan user base give it a critical edge to “create a more personalized agent with new monetizable behaviors,” Nowak wrote. “The entry price of the product … free … is also a notable advantage that comes with scale.” It seems Zuckerberg has finally found his muse. Not so coincidentally, Meta last week launched Muse, its consumer AI agent: The agent, which users interface with like a chatbot, is capable of autonomously accomplishing tasks such as sending emails, managing calendar events and booking travel accommodations. Meta is offering a free version, as well as $20- and $100-per-month subscription tiers. It is currently only available in the US, and is offered as both a standalone app as well as within Meta’s WhatsApp messaging service, which has 100 million monthly active users in the US. Not so Super: Muse is part of Zuckerberg’s goal to deliver “personal superintelligence” to Meta’s billions of users. Internally, some Meta employees see Muse as a bit of a dunce, according to a recent Reuters report. One employee flagged it as unreliable when tasked with monitoring for concert tickets, while others flagged much more serious security flaws. Meanwhile, not everyone on the rest of the internet is ready to welcome agents with open arms. Online restaurant booking service Resy, for instance, is banning users who hand their account over to AI agents. Let’s just describe their position on the matter as one of deep resyvation. Written by Brian Boyle PRESENTED BY FERROVIAL The $3T Infrastructure Opportunity Photo via Ferrovial America’s infrastructure needs $9.1 trillion in investment by 2033, leaving a $3.7 trillion funding gap that public budgets alone cannot close. To bridge that gap, states are now leaning on private capital and expertise, mostly through public-private partnerships (P3s): decades-long contracts on the roads, airports and essential infrastructure you already use, often paying more as prices rise since demand for them rarely falls . Ferrovial operates under exactly that model, its portfolio including the New Terminal One at JFK, the largest aviation P3 in US history. Read more. * AUTOS Ford’s Rare Rebuke of Trump Official Tests DC-Detroit Relations When it comes to sparring with officials in DC, one company’s public relations department is Built Ford Tough. Last week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy published a critical letter to the carmaker’s CEO, Jim Farley, in which he cited “profound concern” that Ford is “actively intertwining its future with Chinese state-backed enterprises.” The company spent the week firing back, arguing Duffy was angling for publicity, out of his depth and even out of step with the rest of the administration. War of the Words Duffy’s letter plainly says the Trump administration views Ford’s dealings with Chinese companies as a national security risk and urges executives to cut ties with them. He chastised the company’s supposed “reliance on technologies of foreign adversaries.” Ford does license technology from Chinese battery maker CATL to make electric vehicle batteries, which Duffy flagged, but it is building those batteries in Michigan at a Ford facility that employs US workers. In fact, Ford issued a blistering response that accused Duffy of “a wrongheaded attempt to capture headlines at the expense of a company that has done more for American manufacturing tha
White House scrambles to save the CLARITY Act with last-minute ethics rules. Global Rate Shock Meets DC’s CLARITY Act Endgame White House scrambles to save the CLARITY Act with last-minute ethics rules. Sep 14 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors A historic monetary regime shift is colliding with a massive regulatory breakthrough. We are looking at a truly defining week for global financial markets. This week’s schedule is absolutely insane for the broader markets. In fact, this could be the most important week for crypto and global markets in 2026. The survival of the CLARITY Act hangs in the balance right now. The White House is aggressively pushing last-minute crypto ethics rules. Meanwhile, a coordinated global liquidity squeeze is shaking absolutely every asset class. 16 of 20 major Wall Street banks expect the Fed to hike rates. The convergence of monetary tightening and regulatory finality is finally here. Volatility is now the absolute baseline expectation for all serious traders. Here’s what our desk is watching. TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register The Macro Trading Reality Of A Coordinated Fed Policy The era of isolated monetary policy is officially dead across the board. We are witnessing a synchronized global tightening cycle that markets are severely underpricing. For the first time since 2006, the Fed, ECB, and BOJ could all be raising rates at the same time. This coordinated action is a nightmare scenario for passive index investors who rely on liquidity. Wall Street is rapidly waking up to this harsh and unforgiving new reality today. A staggering 16 out of 20 major Wall Street banks now expect the Fed to hike rates this month. Derivatives markets strongly reflect this sudden institutional panic sweeping through trading desks globally. The odds have already jumped above 86.7% ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting. The bond market is aggressively screaming that Jerome Powell is trapped in a corner. The primary culprit behind this hawkish pivot is the violently resurging energy sector. Oil prices are adding massive pressure to the Fed right now. Brent crude has violently broken out above $89 per barrel over the past 48 hours. This creates a brutal and immediate headache for global inflation targets across the board. When energy costs spike this aggressively, the soft-landing narrative completely dies on arrival. This energy shock acts as a highly regressive tax on the fragile global consumer base. It is simultaneously pumping up headline inflation data and destroying forward corporate earnings projections. The ECB and BOJ are fighting localized battles, but the global inflation threat is identical. Capital is becoming universally expensive, which will ruthlessly separate fundamentally sound assets from speculative fluff. This aggressive policy shift completely upends traditional macro trading strategies this quarter. The macroeconomic landscape is shifting rapidly as yield curves heavily invert across multiple sovereign borders. Traders are actively dumping long-duration bonds to weather the coming economic storm. We anticipate massive currency devaluations in emerging markets as the dollar continues its wrecking ball trajectory. This intense foreign exchange volatility demands a highly defensive posture from global macro funds. Smart money is actively liquidating fiat positions and heavily evaluating alternative, decentralized liquidity pools. Equities And Semiconductor Stocks Bleed Under AI Bottlenecks Rising borrowing costs are creating a highly toxic cocktail for traditional equities today. Without artificially cheap capital, the broader stock market is entirely exposed to harsh macroeconomic gravity. Legacy equity indices are finally losing the structural floors that consistently kept them afloat. This sudden weakness is heavily compounded by severe geopolitical risk globally. Escalating tensions in major manufacturing hubs are outright terrifying institutional asset managers right now. As broader equities falter, semiconductor stocks are showing immense structural weakness across the board. Our internal crypto market analysis perfectly highlights this growing divergence from traditional hardware momentum. The legacy tech narrative has violently shifted to the absolute downside this week. This is being accelerated by a massive and unexpected narrative shift in the artificial intelligence sector. Elon Musk and Sam Altman have both backed Dario Amodei’s urgent call to slow down AI development. Coin Bureau @coinbureau 🚨BREAKING: Elon Musk and Sam Altman have BOTH backed Dario Amodei's call to slow down AI development. The leaders of OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI have now publicly agreed on slowing AI development for the first time. Coin Bureau @coinbureau 🚨BREAKING: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling on the entire AI industry to SLOW DOWN. He warns a misaligned AI swarm could "take over the entire internet" within 6 to 12 months, potentially causing hundreds of BILLIONS in damage. "AI has been advancing drastically faster, 6:30 PM · Sep 12, 2026 · 715K Views 390 Replies · 680 Reposts · 3.79K Likes The leaders of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI have now publicly agreed on slowing AI development for the first t
Why Bonds Are Failing and Bitcoin Is Surviving 🚨5 Levels To Watch While Trading the Oil Spike and the Fed Decision Why Bonds Are Failing and Bitcoin Is Surviving Sep 14 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after weekend strikes, taking the Hormuz bypass off the board. Crude jumped, then settled still elevated. The inflation impulse remains oil and shipping, not a demand boom. Bonds are not hedging this. The 10-year is still selling off as hike odds firm into Wednesday’s Fed decision, after the ECB already moved and Japan prepares to follow. Equities are reading that as a tightening problem, with chips and the broader tape fading on higher energy and a stronger dollar. Bitcoin is holding its range and trading more with oil and the policy calendar than like a crushed risk asset. It is still the relative winner since crude bottomed, even with CLARITY unresolved into Tuesday’s vote. The tax still hits crude first, then yields, then stocks. Bitcoin is the exception until the next policy tests land. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Trading apps dominate record on-chain protocol fees. What sector leads next? 🦄 DEXs 📈 Perps 🎲 Predictions Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Filecoin(FILUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – Cosmos(ATOMUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – Stellar (XLMUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Hedera(HBARUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Credo (CRDO) 1-Day TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Chart #1 – Filecoin(FILUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Filecoin has triggered a strong continuation impulse following a successful retest of its multi-week breakout shelf, clearing the $0.8447 horizontal pivot to trade near $0.9979 on the daily timeframe. Functioning as a decentralized, peer-to-peer storage network built on IPFS that allows participants to store, retrieve, and compute over digital data with cryptographic proofs of storage and smart contract verification, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $1.1859 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.7288–$0.8447 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.844 Stop Loss: $0.728 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.975 TP2: $1.185 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Cosmos(ATOMUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Cosmos has retraced toward its multi-week breakout level, testing demand along the $1.538 horizontal pivot to trade near $1.545 on the daily timeframe. Operating as the foundational hub for the "Internet of Blockchains"—powering sovereign, application-specific chains through the Cosmos SDK, Tendermint BFT consensus engine, and Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol—this long trade setup targets a re-expansion toward the $2.292 overhead resistance target as long as the $1.321–$1.538 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $1.538 Stop Loss: $1.321 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.873 TP2: $2.292 Chart #3 – Stellar (XLMUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Stellar has completed a multi-week retest of its local base and initiated an impulsive breakout candle above the $0.18518 horizontal shelf, trading around $0.19059 on the 1-day timeframe. Engineered as an open decentralized network focused on cross-border payments, asset tokenization, and seamless fiat-to-crypto off-ramps powered by the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) and its native Soroban smart contracts engine, this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.25247 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.16431–$0.18518 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.185 Stop Loss: $0.164 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.214 TP2: $0.252 Chart #4 – Hedera(HBARUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Hedera has printed a bullish rebound off its ascending support trendline following a multi-week consolidation above its breakout base, holding structure over the $0.06999 shelf to trade around $0.07676 on the daily timeframe. Powered by the high-throughput, low-latency Hashgraph distributed consensus algorithm and governed by a decentralized council of enterprise institutions, Hedera delivers enterprise-grade tokenization, consensus services, and smart contracts with fixed low transaction fees. This long trade setup targets an upward re-expansion toward the $0.10009 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.06350–$0.06999 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.0699 Stop Loss: $0.0635 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.0851 TP2: $0.0988 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Credo (CRDO) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (CRDO refers to the stock of Credo Technology Group and not a cryptocurrency.) Credo Technology Group has pulled back into a major structural test of its prior multi-month breakout zone, stabilizing above the $125.70 horizontal pivot to trade near $151.88 on the daily timeframe. As a high-performance connectivity soluti
Tomorrow is the day... 🥛 Will CLARITY kick off the bull run? 📈 Tomorrow is the day... Rohit Chauhan GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that always brings clarity to noise. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ Will CLARITY kick off the bull run? 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Dan Tapiero: Crypto Is Entering a Much Bigger Bull Market . 🍪 Jordi Visser: BTC, ETH, and SOL are the three horsemen of crypto. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. WILL CLARITY KICK THE BULL RUN INTO GEAR? 📈 The CLARITY bill has had one helluva ride so far, and it looks like the gods are finally shining their grace upon it. But before diving into all the gossip from the Capitol, let’s talk BTC . Last Monday, Milk Road’s in-house crypto-whiz, John Gillen, was hoping for a BTC close above $79K by Sunday, which he would have seen as a vote in favor of the crypto bull market's return. Well… Sunday happened, and we didn't get it. Bitcoin fell from ~$80K to ~$76.5K over the weekend and is trading at ~$78.4K as of this writing. So right out of the gates in this morning's meeting, we asked him: is the bull run on pause? John told us that we’d gotten a little too black and white with our interpretation of his price targets - $79K was a ‘nice to have,’ in the near term, but just because we didn’t finish the week above it, doesn’t mean he’s all of a sudden bearish. The level that he’s focused on (outside of a fixed price) is the 50-week moving average, and it's coming down to meet us. As of this writing, the 50W SMA is ~$78.7K, about $300 above the current price. The 50W SMA smooths the daily noise and is a line traders treat as one of the strongest indicators of price action, marking the break from a bear trend to a bull rally. Source: TradingView John says, when in doubt, zoom out. BTC’s recent price action has been one violent move up, then sideways action for the last four weeks straight. This is what we in the biz call ‘a bull flag.’ A sharp rally up, followed by a sideways grind while the market digests everything - before it breaks up or down decisively. (For bull flags in established uptrends, there’s typically a ~55-65% chance that break is to the upside.) "It's a chop," John says. "But that's not bearish." While technicals alone can’t explain the full story. What was missing in the market was a reason to really break out. This week hands us two of those required reasons... You're Invited: Live Tax-Smart Investing Webinar Your portfolio could be losing more to taxes than you might realize. On September 17 , Range's CFPs and CPAs share the portfolio moves that can help you maximize your after-tax returns — join us live, and bring your questions for Q&A. Reserve your free spot This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Range defines "high earners" as households with income over $300k. WILL CLARITY KICK THE BULL RUN INTO GEAR? (P2) 📈 Tomorrow at 2:15 pm ET, the Senate is going to a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act. To be clear: the cloture vote, in and of itself, doesn’t mean CLARITY will pass. It decides whether the bill moves forward to the Senate for formal debate. All it needs is 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democrats need to cross the aisle and vote in favor. John feels this is tremendously bullish. Chatter on the Hill suggests Democrats are aligned with the revised bill draft submitted by Sens. Lummis, Boozman, and Scott. Long story short, the amended copy introduces: 1. A Treasury oversight via a “circuit-breaker” to step in and pause any deposit flight from community banks to payment-stablecoin providers doling out rewards. 2. Amendments to the ethics provisions that keep Trump, other elected officials, and Judges from engaging in crypto activities while holding office. The thing is - sixty votes to start talking is a higher bar than the 51 needed to pass the thing. So John believes that clearing the cloture vote tomorrow could be an indicator that votes to pass the final bill in the Senate are already in place. Source: Yahoo Finance The second date to watch is Wednesday, when the Fed meets. John doesn’t think we get a rate hike, but acknowledges that the market indicators are against him. CME FedWatch now puts a 25bps hike near 86%, up from 69% on Friday. That would lift the target range from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00%. But despite the odds flipping, John’s primary argument still holds true: Monetary policy is no longer the main lever to drive markets into a rally. We're in a phase of fiscal dominance, which means deficit spending and the bond market push the economy around more than the Fed's rate decisions do. Don’t believe us? Just look at the BTC chart. An 86% hike is staring Bitcoin in the face, and Bitcoin is still holding green while equity futures are red. If both dates break in our favor, John believes we’re poised for a close above ~$83K - aka: the “we’re back baaaaby!” level. On top of that, if CLARITY passes and ETH holds ~$2.5K, John believes alts could catch a major rally too. Hell yeah! If anyone needs us, we’ll be making a blood sacrifice at the altar of the crypto gods. BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Do you trade options? Optionality is a free trading community with 14 active traders averaging 80% per call.* Kalshi traders price the odds of CLARITY passing this year at ~44%, up 30% W/W. Jordi Visser : BTC, ETH, and SOL are the three horsemen of crypto. Attackers demand 10,000 BTC ransom over leaked customer details. *this is sponsored content. RATE TODAY’S EDITION What'd you think of today's edition? 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 F**king great 🥛🥛🥛 Meh, do better 🥛 You didn't bring the heat MILKY MEMES 🤣 Source: @ToolySOL Source: @ToolySOL ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛 VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in re
Plus: Flirting with 5% | Monday, September 14, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Sep 14, 2026 Monday ✅. Today's newsletter is 764 words, a 3-minute read. 📉 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.5%. 🥶 Today's stock spotlight: Bank of America (-5.1%) CEO Brian Moynihan sparked a sell-off in bank stocks today by saying BofA's Q3 sales and trading revenue will be relatively flat compared to a year ago. 1 big thing: Nothing to see here Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios Equity investors largely yawned today at warnings about AI wiping out humanity , suggesting traders aren't pricing in an existential threat. 🤷 While chipmakers fell , the Nasdaq — which is full of AI stocks — pared heavier losses and closed Monday down only 0.6%. The S&P 500 posted a 0.5% decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly. 🏛️ Zoom in: The fact that President Trump rejected the prospect of a regulatory slowdown might've been all Wall Street wanted to hear. He said Monday that fears of "AI taking over the World, destroying Humanity, and all other things bad, is a HOAX," arguing that the U.S. needs to beat China on AI. 🇨🇳 A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson also rejected calls for a coordinated slowdown, disparaging the apocalyptic narrative and saying AI should be open and beneficial to all. 🗣️ What they're saying: Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster said on X that "there's no way these companies are going to measurably back off," citing competitive pressures both with each other and between the U.S. and China. Other traders are betting that the benefits of AI will outstrip the risk of economic destruction. Between the lines: While AI leaders like Anthropic's Dario Amodei and OpenAI's Sam Altman are sounding the alarm, it's Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's much rosier narrative that's prevailing on Wall Street — at least for now. The bottom line: This wouldn't be the first time Wall Street had its head in the sand — but it also wouldn't be the first time that investors accurately ascertained reality. Go deeper 2. Flirting with 5% Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios The all-important 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% today, its highest mark since fall 2023, Axios' Pete Gannon writes . 💵 Why it matters: It's a crucial benchmark rate for both businesses and consumers, influencing everything from mortgages to corporate bonds to auto loans. Driving the news: The 10-year was around 4.96% late this afternoon, after hitting 5.01% earlier in the day. You wouldn't have far to go to surpass 5.02% — a level it hasn't closed above since July 2007, on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis. 🏷️ Between the lines: Yields are rising for a number of reasons, among them resurgent inflation fueled in large part by soaring oil prices. 🛢️ Brent crude traded at one point today at over $109 a barrel before settling to just over $106 — still up 1.5% on the day. The bottom line: Besides its impact on the real economy, the return of 5% yields could make life increasingly uncomfortable for a stock market trading at hefty valuations. 3. Other happenings Photo: Samyukta Lakshmi/Bloomberg via Getty Images 💸 Anthropic is still likely to go public in 2026, even as AI safety rockets into the zeitgeist. ( Axios ) 👉 Novo Nordisk will go by "Novo" for its global branding. The GLP-1 drug giant is following in the footsteps of past drug companies that have pared down their names, including modern-day GSK (formerly GlaxoSmithKline) and Sanofi (formerly Sanofi-Aventis). ( Fierce Pharma ) ⚠️ Microsoft is putting limits on its AI development, adopting a policy aimed at preventing systems from becoming too powerful for humans to control. ( Axios ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Everything you need to simplify "Simplify," a new book by the co-founders of Axios, is a step-by-step playbook for spending your time on what makes you perform and feel your best. The takeaway: Learn the Confront, Delete, Amplify framework used by the world's most effective leaders to cut complexity and reclaim focus. Pre-order now. 4. 🏀 Ballmer takes his medicine Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer before a game in February. Photo: Wally Skalij/Getty Images. "We have communicated to the NBA that we are complying with the penalties assessed by the league, have paid the fine, and are moving forward. While there are still disagreements concerning the findings in the report, this is not where I want to focus. Team owners should support, not distract." — Los Angeles Clippers owner and former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer in a statement on X on his decision to accept the NBA's punishment over the team's alleged end-around the salary cap to compensate superstar Kawhi Leonard. Ballmer is banned from the team's facilities for a year, while the team must pay a $30 million fine and relinquish five first-round draft picks. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Ready to simplify? "Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less" is a toolkit for work in the AI era, from the authors of "Smart Brevity." It's built on a three-step framework: Confront the complexity. Delete what's draining energy. Amplify what works best. Pre-order now. 🗓️ On this day in 1752, everyone living in the British Empire woke up 12 days after going to bed. The empire was officially adopting the Gregorian calendar, which made it necessary to skip forward from Sept. 2. To prevent chaos, the Parliamentary act putting the change in place mandated that crucial contractual dates — including for rents, salaries and labor contracts — be pushed forward 11 days to account for the dates that were skipped. Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller. Did a friend forward this to you? to get Axios Closer in your inbox. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Get started today . Follow Axios across:
Even the Walkman used to seem scary Byron Gilliam “One of such Persons, while any Locomotive is in Motion, shall precede such Locomotive on Foot by not less than Sixty Yards, and shall carry a Red Flag constantly displayed.” — 1865 Locomotives Act A short history of technology freakouts Panic over new technologies goes at least far back to Ancient Greece, when Socrates sounded the alarm over an increasingly popular one: writing. It will introduce forgetfulness into the soul of those who learn it: they will not practice using their memory because they will put their trust in writing, which is external and depends on signs that belong to others, instead of trying to remember from the inside, completely on their own. As related in Plato’s Dialogues , Socrates warned his fellow teachers that writing was ruining a generation of students. You provide your students with the appearance of wisdom, not with its reality. Your invention will enable them to hear many things without being properly taught, and they will imagine that they have come to know much, while for the most part they will know nothing. And they will be difficult to get along with, since they will merely appear to be wise instead of really being so. His warning went unheeded, of course. To this day, the written word continues to make people difficult to get along with. (I speak from experience.) The printed word was even scarier. "The art of printing can be of great service in so far as it furthers the circulation of useful & tested books,” Pope Alexander VI wrote in his papal bull of 1501, “but it can bring about serious evils.” His solution might sound familiar: “It will, therefore, be necessary to maintain full control over the printers.” The Church was worried about books spreading dangerous ideas. Three hundred years later, there was a panic over books spreading frivolous ones. “Novels have been long and frequently regarded not as being merely useless to society, but even as pernicious, from the very indifferent morality, and ridiculous way of thinking, which they almost generally inculcate,” a 1789 letter printed by The Gentleman’s Magazine read. The writer suggested countering the pernicious effects of novels with a sin tax — which no “industrious” person would ever have to pay, he reasoned. The next great wave of technology panic arrived with machines in the 19th century. In Britain, for example, Parliament responded to popular concerns over dangers posed by steam-powered automobiles with t he Locomotives Act of 1865 : “At least Three Persons shall be employed to drive or conduct such Locomotive,” it stipulated — one of whom would walk 60 feet ahead, keeping a red flag “constantly displayed.” In 1878 , the law was revised, in part because the red flags were frightening horses. The person walking in front was assigned to walk alongside instead, without a flag. (Keeping up should not have been a problem. The law also imposed a maximum speed of four miles per hour in the countryside and two in towns.) That same year, The Daily Graphic devoted a front page to the “awful possibilities of the new speaking phonograph.” Sketches helpfully depicted 10 of these possibilities, including thieves tricking elderly millionaires into recording an amendment to their wills, men using opera recordings to lure women out of their homes, and wives pranking their sleeping husbands with a record that shouted “POLICE! FIRE!” Some wanted the government to intervene in the phonograph business. “If the inventor should let it fall into reckless hands we may see special sessions of State Legislatures called this summer to put down what might easily become an intolerable nuisance,” a South Carolina newspaper opined . In the 1920s, it was the radio, which critics blamed for a long list of societal maladies — including dead birds, broken windows, exploding dirigibles, and the blind losing jobs. Some critics blamed the radio for excessive rain. Others blamed it for drought. The panic around machines taking jobs from humans started around that time, as well — and never stopped. The headline from a 1961 edition of the Sydney Morning Herald could have run at any point over the past century: To run the headline today , you’d only have to remove the “un” from “unskilled.” By the 1980s, even a portable cassette player could seem threatening. “People may be using [the] Walkman to blot out unpleasant thoughts about life and work,” syndicated journalist Rich Scheinin warned . “Or, in the case of shy people, to turn inward so basic social skills needn’t be learned.” Another journalist went so far as to call it the very worst thing happening in 1981. “Of all the saddening signs of a troubled society,” Bob Greene wrote for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram , “I saw perhaps the most chilling of all the other afternoon. There, on the midway of the Ohio State Fair, strolled teenagers wearing Sony Walkman earphones.” The backlash against the Walkman included local legislation against crossing the street while wearing headphones. In 2005, the French government warned that crossing into an air-conditioned room could be even more dangerous: "It is necessary to dress people more warmly before they enter a cooled room in order to avoid thermal shock and the health consequences that could result from it." The threat of a choc thermique is why air conditioning remains strictly regulated in France. (Americans seem strangely shock-resistant.) There are many more examples. “Virtually all new technologies trigger what sociologists would call moral panics,” technology researcher Evgeny Morozov says . “This has been true throughout the ages.” Today, we may be experiencing a technology panic for the ages. “We Must Pace the Frontier,” Anthropic’s Dario Amodei said this weekend. Amodei warns that language models like Anthropic’s Claude will soon be powerful enough to break free from human control and take over the entire internet. Or be misused by humans in cyberattacks or bioterrorism. Or de
Breaking down Dario’s essay. 🥛 AI is slowing down? 🐢 Breaking down Dario’s essay. Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road Stocks, the only newsletter where the market's mood swings come with subtitles. Anthropic’s CEO wants to pump the brakes on AI progress. In this edition, we break down what he’s proposing and whether there’s any concrete in its foundations. First, a quick detour to private markets. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. THE WHOLE AI INDUSTRY JUST AGREED TO SLOW DOWN (KINDA) 🐢 On Saturday, Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) published an essay called "We Must Pace the Frontier." In it, his argument walked the same “AI = scary” path he’s been exploring for a while now, pushing AI companies to slow the speed at which their models get more capable. And while it’s a familiar trope, it’s not like it fell on deaf ears… Within hours, Sam Altman agreed with him, saying OpenAI would do the same, Google’s DeepMind jumped on board, and in a strange moment of solidarity, Elon even admitted, "Dario is right." So what’s the play here? Dario’s plan has three steps: 1. Embedded evaluators: outside safety teams (named METR or ‘Model Evaluation and Threat Research’) get employee-level access inside the labs, and can publish what they find. 2. Shared standards: labs in democratic countries agree on common safety rules. 3. Global talks: eventually, the same conversation with governments that aren't democratic. Anthropic has already committed to step one on its own, though Dario has emphasized that pacing doesn't = halting. Melvin's take: Either these guys have seen something inside their own models that scared them… or, as he puts it, a slower and policed race suits whoever is already out in front. Rules cost money to follow, and labs that have already spent tens of billions can absorb that, while smaller teams and open source developers can't. He sees it as a potential form of regulatory capture (aka: writing the rulebook to keep newcomers from catching up). ‘Cause right now, every new frontier model hurts the pricing power of the one before it, so every time labs launch new models, they’re essentially forking out training bills just to stand still. A paced race buys them time to monetize what's already built. Now… the big, hairy stick in the mud here? The money is already committed. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta guided to roughly $725B of CapEx (money spent on data centers, chips and power) this year, up from $410B in 2025. Nobody walks away from a build this size, and nobody wants to be first to take their foot off the gas. Source: Investing OpenAI won't slow while Anthropic is training… Elon won't slow while chasing everyone… but in a vacuum, you could argue that if they all agree to slow their respective rolls, some effect could be had. The real problem in Melvin’s mind is China. Dario’s plan leans on chip export restrictions to protect the U.S. lead, but they’ve found ways around that. And forcing them to train on inferior hardware could risk them making efficiency gains that threaten the economic models of U.S. frontier models (e.g. DeepSeek claimed to have trained its R1 reasoning model for less than $300K). So what does this mean for the trade? AI stocks move on sentiment as much as fundamentals, so Melvin expects a knock today. But he doesn't see the buildout stopping, because so much of it is under contract. Broadcom (AVGO) guided AI chip revenue from $58B this fiscal year to roughly $115B next year and $230B in 2028 - all on supply already secured. (Demand is locked in, regardless of when the next model ships.) Source: Broadcom Which brings us to Jevons paradox, the idea Melvin keeps coming back to: when something gets cheaper, people use far more of it. Cheaper AI per task means more agents, more automated work, and more demand for chips, memory and power. Melvin’s playbook: take profits as positions run, hold cash, deploy when fear creates better prices. He trimmed Nebius (NBIS) on September 8 after an 8% pop because the position had grown to a sizable percentage of his portfolio, and he wanted to free up some cash. He's still holding plenty of expensive names though, and those typically take the worst of any selloff. 👇 Source: Milk Road PRO Melvin's advice: watch CapEx guidance. If Amazon, Microsoft, Google or Meta trim their spending plans, the proposed slowdown could become real. Until then, he reckons it's four CEOs agreeing to slow down publicly, while doing the opposite behind closed doors. P.S. Want to see how Melvin trades all of this in real time? Try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days. FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road Stocks 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada
News built for IT professionals. Powered By Thanks for being a member of the Brew community! Since you indicated that you work in IT, we wanted to introduce you to the Brew built just for you— IT Brew . IT Brew delivers essential industry news and insights straight to your inbox 4 times a week! Covering everything from cybersecurity and big data to software development & gaming, you'll get the info you need to make decisions that better your business. Interested in checking it out? Just click below. Show me IT Brew! Check out the latest updates: How to retain your top IT talent Workplace flexibility, opportunities for growth, and psychological safety are some of the things that will keep employees at companies for longer. Read More How to test IT job candidates in the era of AI Live coding assessments, paid trials, and code pairing sessions. These are just a few alternatives to take-home IT assessments that companies are leveraging in the AI era. Read More AI jobs drove August numbers A stronger-than-expected jobs market in August didn’t translate into an employment boom for the tech sector, but the news is a little more complicated than simply “good” or “bad,” with AI continuing to impact the industry’s dynamics. According to a CompTIA analysis of Bureau of Labor and Statistics data, companies across all industry sectors added 86,000 tech jobs in August, even as tech companies reduced headcount by 14,700 positions. Read More P.S. Read the latest IT Brew newsletter here . IT Brew Events Take your lunch break to the next level with an IT Brew virtual event! See All Events