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Zbieżność czasowa, nie dowód przyczyny — sprawdź sam.
Tomorrow is the day... 🥛 Will CLARITY kick off the bull run? 📈 Tomorrow is the day... Rohit Chauhan GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that always brings clarity to noise. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ Will CLARITY kick off the bull run? 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Dan Tapiero: Crypto Is Entering a Much Bigger Bull Market . 🍪 Jordi Visser: BTC, ETH, and SOL are the three horsemen of crypto. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. WILL CLARITY KICK THE BULL RUN INTO GEAR? 📈 The CLARITY bill has had one helluva ride so far, and it looks like the gods are finally shining their grace upon it. But before diving into all the gossip from the Capitol, let’s talk BTC . Last Monday, Milk Road’s in-house crypto-whiz, John Gillen, was hoping for a BTC close above $79K by Sunday, which he would have seen as a vote in favor of the crypto bull market's return. Well… Sunday happened, and we didn't get it. Bitcoin fell from ~$80K to ~$76.5K over the weekend and is trading at ~$78.4K as of this writing. So right out of the gates in this morning's meeting, we asked him: is the bull run on pause? John told us that we’d gotten a little too black and white with our interpretation of his price targets - $79K was a ‘nice to have,’ in the near term, but just because we didn’t finish the week above it, doesn’t mean he’s all of a sudden bearish. The level that he’s focused on (outside of a fixed price) is the 50-week moving average, and it's coming down to meet us. As of this writing, the 50W SMA is ~$78.7K, about $300 above the current price. The 50W SMA smooths the daily noise and is a line traders treat as one of the strongest indicators of price action, marking the break from a bear trend to a bull rally. Source: TradingView John says, when in doubt, zoom out. BTC’s recent price action has been one violent move up, then sideways action for the last four weeks straight. This is what we in the biz call ‘a bull flag.’ A sharp rally up, followed by a sideways grind while the market digests everything - before it breaks up or down decisively. (For bull flags in established uptrends, there’s typically a ~55-65% chance that break is to the upside.) "It's a chop," John says. "But that's not bearish." While technicals alone can’t explain the full story. What was missing in the market was a reason to really break out. This week hands us two of those required reasons... You're Invited: Live Tax-Smart Investing Webinar Your portfolio could be losing more to taxes than you might realize. On September 17 , Range's CFPs and CPAs share the portfolio moves that can help you maximize your after-tax returns — join us live, and bring your questions for Q&A. Reserve your free spot This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Range defines "high earners" as households with income over $300k. WILL CLARITY KICK THE BULL RUN INTO GEAR? (P2) 📈 Tomorrow at 2:15 pm ET, the Senate is going to a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act. To be clear: the cloture vote, in and of itself, doesn’t mean CLARITY will pass. It decides whether the bill moves forward to the Senate for formal debate. All it needs is 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least seven Democrats need to cross the aisle and vote in favor. John feels this is tremendously bullish. Chatter on the Hill suggests Democrats are aligned with the revised bill draft submitted by Sens. Lummis, Boozman, and Scott. Long story short, the amended copy introduces: 1. A Treasury oversight via a “circuit-breaker” to step in and pause any deposit flight from community banks to payment-stablecoin providers doling out rewards. 2. Amendments to the ethics provisions that keep Trump, other elected officials, and Judges from engaging in crypto activities while holding office. The thing is - sixty votes to start talking is a higher bar than the 51 needed to pass the thing. So John believes that clearing the cloture vote tomorrow could be an indicator that votes to pass the final bill in the Senate are already in place. Source: Yahoo Finance The second date to watch is Wednesday, when the Fed meets. John doesn’t think we get a rate hike, but acknowledges that the market indicators are against him. CME FedWatch now puts a 25bps hike near 86%, up from 69% on Friday. That would lift the target range from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00%. But despite the odds flipping, John’s primary argument still holds true: Monetary policy is no longer the main lever to drive markets into a rally. We're in a phase of fiscal dominance, which means deficit spending and the bond market push the economy around more than the Fed's rate decisions do. Don’t believe us? Just look at the BTC chart. An 86% hike is staring Bitcoin in the face, and Bitcoin is still holding green while equity futures are red. If both dates break in our favor, John believes we’re poised for a close above ~$83K - aka: the “we’re back baaaaby!” level. On top of that, if CLARITY passes and ETH holds ~$2.5K, John believes alts could catch a major rally too. Hell yeah! If anyone needs us, we’ll be making a blood sacrifice at the altar of the crypto gods. BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Do you trade options? Optionality is a free trading community with 14 active traders averaging 80% per call.* Kalshi traders price the odds of CLARITY passing this year at ~44%, up 30% W/W. Jordi Visser : BTC, ETH, and SOL are the three horsemen of crypto. Attackers demand 10,000 BTC ransom over leaked customer details. *this is sponsored content. RATE TODAY’S EDITION What'd you think of today's edition? 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 F**king great 🥛🥛🥛 Meh, do better 🥛 You didn't bring the heat MILKY MEMES 🤣 Source: @ToolySOL Source: @ToolySOL ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛 VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in re
Breaking down Dario’s essay. 🥛 AI is slowing down? 🐢 Breaking down Dario’s essay. Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road Stocks, the only newsletter where the market's mood swings come with subtitles. Anthropic’s CEO wants to pump the brakes on AI progress. In this edition, we break down what he’s proposing and whether there’s any concrete in its foundations. First, a quick detour to private markets. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. THE WHOLE AI INDUSTRY JUST AGREED TO SLOW DOWN (KINDA) 🐢 On Saturday, Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) published an essay called "We Must Pace the Frontier." In it, his argument walked the same “AI = scary” path he’s been exploring for a while now, pushing AI companies to slow the speed at which their models get more capable. And while it’s a familiar trope, it’s not like it fell on deaf ears… Within hours, Sam Altman agreed with him, saying OpenAI would do the same, Google’s DeepMind jumped on board, and in a strange moment of solidarity, Elon even admitted, "Dario is right." So what’s the play here? Dario’s plan has three steps: 1. Embedded evaluators: outside safety teams (named METR or ‘Model Evaluation and Threat Research’) get employee-level access inside the labs, and can publish what they find. 2. Shared standards: labs in democratic countries agree on common safety rules. 3. Global talks: eventually, the same conversation with governments that aren't democratic. Anthropic has already committed to step one on its own, though Dario has emphasized that pacing doesn't = halting. Melvin's take: Either these guys have seen something inside their own models that scared them… or, as he puts it, a slower and policed race suits whoever is already out in front. Rules cost money to follow, and labs that have already spent tens of billions can absorb that, while smaller teams and open source developers can't. He sees it as a potential form of regulatory capture (aka: writing the rulebook to keep newcomers from catching up). ‘Cause right now, every new frontier model hurts the pricing power of the one before it, so every time labs launch new models, they’re essentially forking out training bills just to stand still. A paced race buys them time to monetize what's already built. Now… the big, hairy stick in the mud here? The money is already committed. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta guided to roughly $725B of CapEx (money spent on data centers, chips and power) this year, up from $410B in 2025. Nobody walks away from a build this size, and nobody wants to be first to take their foot off the gas. Source: Investing OpenAI won't slow while Anthropic is training… Elon won't slow while chasing everyone… but in a vacuum, you could argue that if they all agree to slow their respective rolls, some effect could be had. The real problem in Melvin’s mind is China. Dario’s plan leans on chip export restrictions to protect the U.S. lead, but they’ve found ways around that. And forcing them to train on inferior hardware could risk them making efficiency gains that threaten the economic models of U.S. frontier models (e.g. DeepSeek claimed to have trained its R1 reasoning model for less than $300K). So what does this mean for the trade? AI stocks move on sentiment as much as fundamentals, so Melvin expects a knock today. But he doesn't see the buildout stopping, because so much of it is under contract. Broadcom (AVGO) guided AI chip revenue from $58B this fiscal year to roughly $115B next year and $230B in 2028 - all on supply already secured. (Demand is locked in, regardless of when the next model ships.) Source: Broadcom Which brings us to Jevons paradox, the idea Melvin keeps coming back to: when something gets cheaper, people use far more of it. Cheaper AI per task means more agents, more automated work, and more demand for chips, memory and power. Melvin’s playbook: take profits as positions run, hold cash, deploy when fear creates better prices. He trimmed Nebius (NBIS) on September 8 after an 8% pop because the position had grown to a sizable percentage of his portfolio, and he wanted to free up some cash. He's still holding plenty of expensive names though, and those typically take the worst of any selloff. 👇 Source: Milk Road PRO Melvin's advice: watch CapEx guidance. If Amazon, Microsoft, Google or Meta trim their spending plans, the proposed slowdown could become real. Until then, he reckons it's four CEOs agreeing to slow down publicly, while doing the opposite behind closed doors. P.S. Want to see how Melvin trades all of this in real time? Try Milk Road PRO for a buck for 7 days. FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? Sponsor Milk Road Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 ImpactDM Inc. operating as Milk Road Stocks 1257 Dundas St W Toronto, Ontario M6J1X6, Canada
Top AI execs agree the tech has a problem... September 14, 2026 Presented By Thank you for being here, friend. The Golden Girls debuted on this day in 1985. Some Monday motivation: The show’s matriarch, Sophia, was only supposed to be an occasional presence. But the audience for the pilot episode became enamored of Estelle Getty’s portrayal, and she got promoted to a starring role. Literally main character energy. — Holly Van Leuven, Brendan Cosgrove, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: Dario Amodei taking his AI fears public Champagne becoming more alcoholic Céline Dion’s return to full concerts Markets: Year-to-Date Nasdaq 26,333.04 +13.30% S&P 7,656.98 +11.85% Dow 52,573.29 +9.38% 10-Year 4.975% +81.2 bps Bitcoin $77,259.05 -11.71% Dave & Buster’s $8.14 -49.78% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 10:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Last week, the markets demonstrated that a short week isn’t always a good one, as rising oil prices and inflation data brought stocks down. This week, investors are eager to hear from Fed Chair Kevin “Never Let Them Know Your Next Move” Warsh (more on that later). Stock spotlight: Dave & Buster’s shareholders haven’t had much fun this year, with the stock down more than 52% YTD, but new CEO Darin Harper will be looking to restart the party on today’s earnings call. Markets Sponsored by Northwestern Mutual Hit reset this fall: A simple plan to reclaim control of your money . Seven smart moves to make before year-end. BRAKE TIME? Amodei called for AI development to slow down Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Chance Yeh/Getty Images This weekend, lawmakers from both parties were united by one of the most powerful forces in American life—and that was after a council voted unanimously to rename Nashville’s airport for Dolly Parton. Their concern? AI is kinda unglued Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on his personal website on Saturday titled “We Must Pace the Frontier.” According to the tech founder: AI has grown “drastically faster” this summer. The OpenAI-Hugging Face hack is spooky because the AI agents involved became a “fanatically devoted collective” that sacrificed themselves “for the success of the group,” and attempted to keep human engineers from finding out what they did. Ergo, “in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet,” which would potentially cause “hundreds of billions of dollars in damage” and, you know, could topple civilization. Among his other ideas, Amodei called on all AI companies to implement embedded evaluators with “desks in our offices, access badges, and company laptops,” similar to what large banks have, to make sure everyone is indeed slowing the pace of progress. He announced that Anthropic has committed to this step “in the near future.” Legislators from both parties and the leaders of many AI companies spoke in support of Amodei’s ideas. Here’s a smattering of responses: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman , xAI CEO Elon Musk, Google DeepMind Chair Demis Hassabis, and other AI execs publicly supported Amodei. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang probably went 🤨. At a conference last week, he suggested that AI companies were ratcheting up hysteria because they plan to release new cybersecurity products, positing, “What better way to create demand than to create a problem?” President Trump said that he didn’t want to slow AI development because he wanted to keep ahead of China and “whoever wins AI wins.” Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida supported regulation and said, “Partisan politics aside…this will need to be a massive bipartisan mobilization of government to put the firewalls in effect.” Zoom out: Regulation in the US may be a long time coming, as lawmakers stress there is no quick fix. In the meantime, King Charles is convening AI leaders to talk this out , and Sam Altman said OpenAI’s IPO is postponed .— HVL Reader Poll How freaked out are you about AI following this weekend’s developments? Not at all. The same as I was. More than I was—!!! Less than I was; everyone seems aware of the risks. My perpetual feeling about AI is 😵💫. Sponsored By PwC Is your front office ready for AI? PwC is heading to Dreamforce 2026 as a Pioneer Sponsor and the official Executive Summit sponsor. So if you’ve been wondering what kinds of conversations will be taking place, get ready for some game changers. One question will be front and center: How can businesses leverage AI and agents to build real commercial impact? From scaling agent-assisted selling to modernizing customer service, PwC will be exploring what it takes to move AI from hype to business value . And there’s a reason to move quickly. Customers are already using AI agents to research products, compare prices, and buy. So if their AI is ready to buy, is yours ready to sell? See PwC’s vision for building an intelligent customer edge . World Tour de headlines President Trump and Shane Lowry at the Irish Open. Ramsey Cardy/Getty Images 🥃 President Trump visits Ireland, lifts tariff on Irish whiskey. Someone pour us up a double shot of whiskey: While presenting the trophy for the Irish Open golf tournament, held at his family’s resort in Doonbeg , Trump announced that he would rescind the 10% tariff on the Irish spirit, saying, “Everybody’s been bugging me” about it—including tournament winner Shane Lowry. The president also told reporters, “I don’t want to cause any problems, but I will tell you, I’d love to see [Ireland] unified. It’s going to happen eventually.” He drew the line at revealing his thoughts on Scottish independence, saying that he would “save that for another day.” 🇾🇪 Fighting in Yemen intensified over the weekend. Government forces in Yemen launched attacks against the Iran-aligned Houthis along the Red Sea, including on Houthi positions in Mokha, the port city that the rebels captured last week. The Houthis are escalating attacks on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arab
Plus: Apollo warning | Monday, September 14, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 14, 2026 👋 Welcome back! Oil and AI are roiling the market this morning. S&P 500 futures are down as fighting between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia intensified over the weekend. Houthi drone attacks forced the closure of a Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea, threatening 4% of global oil supplies, according to Reuters . Brent crude is trading above $107 a barrel 📉 Technology stocks, meanwhile, are falling after this weekend's joint call for a slowdown in AI development from top rivals Sam Altman of OpenAI and Dario Amodei of Anthropic. They say the industry needs to take more steps to ensure safety. (Just a few months ago, these guys wouldn't even shake hands!) Altman said his company would delay its IPO until at least next year. 👀 Investors' initial reaction to the idea of a pullback appears cool: Nasdaq futures are down 1.7%. Not too surprising, given that their expectations for AI are sky-high and buoying the stock market, as Matt explains below. Plus, Emily talked to author William Cohan, who is out with a huge new book on Apollo — and warning about some risks embedded within the giant asset manager. Let's get into it! In 1,311 words, a 5-minute read. 1 big thing: Why stocks are shrugging off rising interest rates By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips The escalating war with Iran and rising energy costs helped push up borrowing costs across the U.S. economy last week. Stocks largely yawned. Why it matters: It suggests that investors think it will take more than higher interest rates to slow the engine powering much of the market. The latest: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed to 4.97% Friday, near 2007 levels. A month ago, it was at 4.69%. Zoom out: That Treasury yield serves as part of the foundation for borrowing costs throughout the economy, from car loans to mortgages to multibillion-dollar corporate bond offerings. And those additional costs are a big part of the reason higher interest rates have long been seen as stock market kryptonite. But this year's higher rates and even the jump over the last few weeks haven't clobbered stocks — at least not yet. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up about 12%. Even with the run-up in yields last week, the index ended down less than 1%. Between the lines: What accounts for the stock market's resilience? Profits, for one thing. S&P 500 companies have posted rip-roaring profit growth in recent quarters, including a jump of more than 50% in earnings in the most recently reported quarter, compared with the prior year. Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips And what accounts for those profits? Any regular reader of Axios Markets knows the answer: It's the massive amount of capital spending for the AI boom. Yes, but: More and more, that boom is being funded by borrowing . So shouldn't rising rates and borrowing costs throw at least some sand in the gears? In theory, the answer is "yes." But in practice, it can also be "no." Zoom in: In competitive industries, higher rates would be something of a problem, as they would ultimately start to cut into relatively low expectations for profitability. If rising rates eat away deeply at those expected returns, the payoff on investing to build that business is no longer worth the squeeze. Reality check: AI doesn't really exist as a profitable business yet. So the profits are largely in the form of expectations in the minds of investors, analysts and executives. And as you might expect, they are sky-high. Stunning stat: A recent report from Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that hyperscalers could generate roughly $12 billion of after-tax operating profit per gigawatt of computing power, which would be a return on invested capital of roughly 30% — an unusually lucrative opportunity. Morgan Stanley analysts also sketched out a number of paths for hyperscalers and AI players that could lead to between 25% and 50% returns on invested capital, or ROIC. That's the key metric that everyone is watching on AI profitability. The bottom line: When expectations for profitability are that high, it would take an enormous increase in borrowing costs to make a dent in profit expectations big enough to quell the AI boom. What they're saying: "When you have 25%+ ROIC expectations, the sensitivity to the cost of borrowing for some of these companies is substantially less," Morgan Stanley fixed-income analyst Vishwanath Tirupattur tells Axios. "It doesn't mean that borrowing cost doesn't matter. It means that in a certain range, for certain issuers, it's less sensitive than some others." The big picture: This is what happens during a market boom. If additional borrowing expense doesn't really matter to investors — who are willing to pay a few extra percentage points in financing for the opportunity to make life-changing returns — it sometimes means rates have to go a lot higher than people expect before things cool off. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less With AI upending work and life, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz, the bestselling authors of "Smart Brevity" offer a one-stop survival guide to dramatically improving your life, work and happiness. The idea: Toxic complexity clogs our inboxes and calendars. We can do more, but first we need to simplify. Pre-order now. 2. Apollo's trigger point By Emily Peck Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios There's a warning about the financial system in the last chapter of William Cohan's new book , "Money to Burn: The Unvarnished Truth About Leon Black, Apollo, and the Rise of a New Wall Street." The latest: When asked in an interview on Slate's "Money" podcast this weekend if Apollo Global Management, which had more than $1 trillion under management as of the second quarter, could trigger a financial crisis, Cohan said: "Absolutely, yes." The big picture: The massive financial institution that Black helped create has evolved away
Can Meta, the tortoise, end up winning the consumer AI race? September 14, 2026 PRESENTED BY FERROVIAL Good morning and happy Monday. Remember when they were just for nerds? In recent months, a concerning number of malicious creators have reportedly used Meta smart glasses to secretly record themselves harassing and pranking strangers in order to post the footage online for attention and views. Internet users have even taken to calling the devices “pervert glasses.” Meta said earlier this month that it remotely disabled thousands of them after users tampered with the light that signals recording, while its Instagram subsidiary announced that users who post “harassing” videos shot with the smart glasses will be banned. There’s now an app for the problem, too. Thirty-year-old Polish software designer Pawel Szydlowski created Zuckoff, a free smartphone app that lets users detect the location of smart glasses around them by tracking their Bluetooth signatures. Since launching last month, it has gained roughly 5,000 users, he told Business Insider. In a world where smart glasses make some people dumber, it’s just too bad stupidity doesn’t project its own unique Bluetooth signal. MARKETS S&P 500 7,656.98 ▲ +0.86% DJI 52,573.29 ▲ +0.98% META $648.03 ▲ +0.57% Stock data as of market close on September 11, 2026. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Meta May Be an AI Winner After All: Morgan Stanley Photo via Louis Grasse/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom Mark Zuckerberg is having just about as tough a year as a centibillionaire can have. Shares of Meta are roughly flat year-to-date, lagging the broader market. The company just agreed to a landmark settlement with state attorneys general that could reshape it forever. And, worst of all, there’s yet another Aaron Sorkin-penned movie on the way. But there may yet be light at the end of the tunnel. Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak wrote in a note to clients that the company could win a sizable piece of the $30 trillion consumer AI pie, and said the company’s share price may gain 25% by New Year’s Eve. It’s a welcome endorsement for a company that long considered an AI also-ran. I Have Friends Everywhere Meta’s massive capex allocations belie the fact that it has all but forfeited the AI frontier to leading labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic. But Wall Street still sees plenty of value in an AI that’s less focused on disproving mathematical impossibilities and more focused on the everyday tasks of regular folks. And by that, of course, they mostly mean shopping. In the suddenly all-important race to build a consumer AI agent, Meta’s existing family of apps and gargantuan user base give it a critical edge to “create a more personalized agent with new monetizable behaviors,” Nowak wrote. “The entry price of the product … free … is also a notable advantage that comes with scale.” It seems Zuckerberg has finally found his muse. Not so coincidentally, Meta last week launched Muse, its consumer AI agent: The agent, which users interface with like a chatbot, is capable of autonomously accomplishing tasks such as sending emails, managing calendar events and booking travel accommodations. Meta is offering a free version, as well as $20- and $100-per-month subscription tiers. It is currently only available in the US, and is offered as both a standalone app as well as within Meta’s WhatsApp messaging service, which has 100 million monthly active users in the US. Not so Super: Muse is part of Zuckerberg’s goal to deliver “personal superintelligence” to Meta’s billions of users. Internally, some Meta employees see Muse as a bit of a dunce, according to a recent Reuters report. One employee flagged it as unreliable when tasked with monitoring for concert tickets, while others flagged much more serious security flaws. Meanwhile, not everyone on the rest of the internet is ready to welcome agents with open arms. Online restaurant booking service Resy, for instance, is banning users who hand their account over to AI agents. Let’s just describe their position on the matter as one of deep resyvation. Written by Brian Boyle PRESENTED BY FERROVIAL The $3T Infrastructure Opportunity Photo via Ferrovial America’s infrastructure needs $9.1 trillion in investment by 2033, leaving a $3.7 trillion funding gap that public budgets alone cannot close. To bridge that gap, states are now leaning on private capital and expertise, mostly through public-private partnerships (P3s): decades-long contracts on the roads, airports and essential infrastructure you already use, often paying more as prices rise since demand for them rarely falls . Ferrovial operates under exactly that model, its portfolio including the New Terminal One at JFK, the largest aviation P3 in US history. Read more. * AUTOS Ford’s Rare Rebuke of Trump Official Tests DC-Detroit Relations When it comes to sparring with officials in DC, one company’s public relations department is Built Ford Tough. Last week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy published a critical letter to the carmaker’s CEO, Jim Farley, in which he cited “profound concern” that Ford is “actively intertwining its future with Chinese state-backed enterprises.” The company spent the week firing back, arguing Duffy was angling for publicity, out of his depth and even out of step with the rest of the administration. War of the Words Duffy’s letter plainly says the Trump administration views Ford’s dealings with Chinese companies as a national security risk and urges executives to cut ties with them. He chastised the company’s supposed “reliance on technologies of foreign adversaries.” Ford does license technology from Chinese battery maker CATL to make electric vehicle batteries, which Duffy flagged, but it is building those batteries in Michigan at a Ford facility that employs US workers. In fact, Ford issued a blistering response that accused Duffy of “a wrongheaded attempt to capture headlines at the expense of a company that has done more for American manufacturing tha
White House scrambles to save the CLARITY Act with last-minute ethics rules. Global Rate Shock Meets DC’s CLARITY Act Endgame White House scrambles to save the CLARITY Act with last-minute ethics rules. Sep 14 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors A historic monetary regime shift is colliding with a massive regulatory breakthrough. We are looking at a truly defining week for global financial markets. This week’s schedule is absolutely insane for the broader markets. In fact, this could be the most important week for crypto and global markets in 2026. The survival of the CLARITY Act hangs in the balance right now. The White House is aggressively pushing last-minute crypto ethics rules. Meanwhile, a coordinated global liquidity squeeze is shaking absolutely every asset class. 16 of 20 major Wall Street banks expect the Fed to hike rates. The convergence of monetary tightening and regulatory finality is finally here. Volatility is now the absolute baseline expectation for all serious traders. Here’s what our desk is watching. TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register The Macro Trading Reality Of A Coordinated Fed Policy The era of isolated monetary policy is officially dead across the board. We are witnessing a synchronized global tightening cycle that markets are severely underpricing. For the first time since 2006, the Fed, ECB, and BOJ could all be raising rates at the same time. This coordinated action is a nightmare scenario for passive index investors who rely on liquidity. Wall Street is rapidly waking up to this harsh and unforgiving new reality today. A staggering 16 out of 20 major Wall Street banks now expect the Fed to hike rates this month. Derivatives markets strongly reflect this sudden institutional panic sweeping through trading desks globally. The odds have already jumped above 86.7% ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting. The bond market is aggressively screaming that Jerome Powell is trapped in a corner. The primary culprit behind this hawkish pivot is the violently resurging energy sector. Oil prices are adding massive pressure to the Fed right now. Brent crude has violently broken out above $89 per barrel over the past 48 hours. This creates a brutal and immediate headache for global inflation targets across the board. When energy costs spike this aggressively, the soft-landing narrative completely dies on arrival. This energy shock acts as a highly regressive tax on the fragile global consumer base. It is simultaneously pumping up headline inflation data and destroying forward corporate earnings projections. The ECB and BOJ are fighting localized battles, but the global inflation threat is identical. Capital is becoming universally expensive, which will ruthlessly separate fundamentally sound assets from speculative fluff. This aggressive policy shift completely upends traditional macro trading strategies this quarter. The macroeconomic landscape is shifting rapidly as yield curves heavily invert across multiple sovereign borders. Traders are actively dumping long-duration bonds to weather the coming economic storm. We anticipate massive currency devaluations in emerging markets as the dollar continues its wrecking ball trajectory. This intense foreign exchange volatility demands a highly defensive posture from global macro funds. Smart money is actively liquidating fiat positions and heavily evaluating alternative, decentralized liquidity pools. Equities And Semiconductor Stocks Bleed Under AI Bottlenecks Rising borrowing costs are creating a highly toxic cocktail for traditional equities today. Without artificially cheap capital, the broader stock market is entirely exposed to harsh macroeconomic gravity. Legacy equity indices are finally losing the structural floors that consistently kept them afloat. This sudden weakness is heavily compounded by severe geopolitical risk globally. Escalating tensions in major manufacturing hubs are outright terrifying institutional asset managers right now. As broader equities falter, semiconductor stocks are showing immense structural weakness across the board. Our internal crypto market analysis perfectly highlights this growing divergence from traditional hardware momentum. The legacy tech narrative has violently shifted to the absolute downside this week. This is being accelerated by a massive and unexpected narrative shift in the artificial intelligence sector. Elon Musk and Sam Altman have both backed Dario Amodei’s urgent call to slow down AI development. Coin Bureau @coinbureau 🚨BREAKING: Elon Musk and Sam Altman have BOTH backed Dario Amodei's call to slow down AI development. The leaders of OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI have now publicly agreed on slowing AI development for the first time. Coin Bureau @coinbureau 🚨BREAKING: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling on the entire AI industry to SLOW DOWN. He warns a misaligned AI swarm could "take over the entire internet" within 6 to 12 months, potentially causing hundreds of BILLIONS in damage. "AI has been advancing drastically faster, 6:30 PM · Sep 12, 2026 · 715K Views 390 Replies · 680 Reposts · 3.79K Likes The leaders of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI have now publicly agreed on slowing AI development for the first t
Why Bonds Are Failing and Bitcoin Is Surviving 🚨5 Levels To Watch While Trading the Oil Spike and the Fed Decision Why Bonds Are Failing and Bitcoin Is Surviving Sep 14 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after weekend strikes, taking the Hormuz bypass off the board. Crude jumped, then settled still elevated. The inflation impulse remains oil and shipping, not a demand boom. Bonds are not hedging this. The 10-year is still selling off as hike odds firm into Wednesday’s Fed decision, after the ECB already moved and Japan prepares to follow. Equities are reading that as a tightening problem, with chips and the broader tape fading on higher energy and a stronger dollar. Bitcoin is holding its range and trading more with oil and the policy calendar than like a crushed risk asset. It is still the relative winner since crude bottomed, even with CLARITY unresolved into Tuesday’s vote. The tax still hits crude first, then yields, then stocks. Bitcoin is the exception until the next policy tests land. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL Trading apps dominate record on-chain protocol fees. What sector leads next? 🦄 DEXs 📈 Perps 🎲 Predictions Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Filecoin(FILUSDT) 1-Day Chart #2 – Cosmos(ATOMUSDT) 1-Day Chart #3 – Stellar (XLMUSDT) 1-Day Chart #4 – Hedera(HBARUSDT) 1-Day Chart #5 – Credo (CRDO) 1-Day TOKEN2049 Singapore: Find the Next Hyperliquid Before It Lists!!! Every year, one conference produces the startups that dominate the next cycle. This year, it’s TOKEN2049 Singapore. TOKEN2049 Origins Hackathon: 36 hours, $100K prize pool, direct demo access to the main stage. This is where the next cycle’s infrastructure gets built live. 500 applicants, 10 finalists, 1 global stage. Past cohorts have gone on to become Web3 unicorns. 25,000 people. 7,000 companies. 60%+ C-suite. 160+ countries. One building: Marina Bay Sands. Newsletter readers get 10% off tickets. We don’t get a kickback. We just want our people in that room. Claim your 10% discount and register Chart #1 – Filecoin(FILUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Filecoin has triggered a strong continuation impulse following a successful retest of its multi-week breakout shelf, clearing the $0.8447 horizontal pivot to trade near $0.9979 on the daily timeframe. Functioning as a decentralized, peer-to-peer storage network built on IPFS that allows participants to store, retrieve, and compute over digital data with cryptographic proofs of storage and smart contract verification, this long trade setup targets an upward expansion toward the $1.1859 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.7288–$0.8447 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.844 Stop Loss: $0.728 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.975 TP2: $1.185 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Cosmos(ATOMUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade ) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Cosmos has retraced toward its multi-week breakout level, testing demand along the $1.538 horizontal pivot to trade near $1.545 on the daily timeframe. Operating as the foundational hub for the "Internet of Blockchains"—powering sovereign, application-specific chains through the Cosmos SDK, Tendermint BFT consensus engine, and Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol—this long trade setup targets a re-expansion toward the $2.292 overhead resistance target as long as the $1.321–$1.538 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $1.538 Stop Loss: $1.321 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $1.873 TP2: $2.292 Chart #3 – Stellar (XLMUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Stellar has completed a multi-week retest of its local base and initiated an impulsive breakout candle above the $0.18518 horizontal shelf, trading around $0.19059 on the 1-day timeframe. Engineered as an open decentralized network focused on cross-border payments, asset tokenization, and seamless fiat-to-crypto off-ramps powered by the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) and its native Soroban smart contracts engine, this long trade setup targets an upward continuation toward the $0.25247 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.16431–$0.18518 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.185 Stop Loss: $0.164 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.214 TP2: $0.252 Chart #4 – Hedera(HBARUSDT) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) Hedera has printed a bullish rebound off its ascending support trendline following a multi-week consolidation above its breakout base, holding structure over the $0.06999 shelf to trade around $0.07676 on the daily timeframe. Powered by the high-throughput, low-latency Hashgraph distributed consensus algorithm and governed by a decentralized council of enterprise institutions, Hedera delivers enterprise-grade tokenization, consensus services, and smart contracts with fixed low transaction fees. This long trade setup targets an upward re-expansion toward the $0.10009 overhead resistance target as long as the $0.06350–$0.06999 support base holds. Trade Levels: Entry: $0.0699 Stop Loss: $0.0635 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $0.0851 TP2: $0.0988 Markets go both ways. Get premium short setups delivered every day with 247 Research . Chart #5 – Credo (CRDO) 1-Day( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Kapoor (For the chart screenshot, ) (CRDO refers to the stock of Credo Technology Group and not a cryptocurrency.) Credo Technology Group has pulled back into a major structural test of its prior multi-month breakout zone, stabilizing above the $125.70 horizontal pivot to trade near $151.88 on the daily timeframe. As a high-performance connectivity soluti
There are two sides to every job posting... September 13, 2026 Presented By Louis Quail Editor’s note Good morning. We are writing this note to express our strong interest in welcoming you to Hiring Brew. Our background has equipped us to provide you with insights into how AI has swarmed both hiring and applying, the most bizarre questions that tech companies are asking interviewees these days, what “work trials” are and how job seekers are navigating them, and more. Looking forward to connecting! job applications AI is upending the hiring process Getty Images Need a new job? Just use AI to polish up your résumé, submit an application to an AI-powered tracking system, interview with an AI agent, and then pass an AI background check. Apply and demand Many career advisors and universities are encouraging job seekers to use AI to craft their résumés and cover letters. But then recruiters have to figure out whether the candidate is a good communicator or just good at using AI . And while 60% of hiring managers say they can identify AI-generated applications , only about 25% actually can, according to a Software Finder survey. AI also makes it easier to apply for jobs, turning recruiters’ offices into a ball pit of applications. According to hiring software platform Greenhouse: In Q1 2022, the average job opening drew 89 applications. Three years later, each opening attracted 243 hopefuls. To keep up, 90% of US employers use AI screening, according to a Stanford University study. While those tools help weed out unqualified candidates, they also turn away talented prospects. A hire calling: If you’re lucky enough to make it through the application gauntlet, it’s time to interview. But don’t bother practicing a firm handshake just yet. Nearly two-thirds of US job seekers say they’ve been interviewed by an AI bot , per Greenhouse. Passing inspection: If you get past the interview process, there’s still one more AI hurdle to clear—an exhaustive digital background check that pulls your information from dozens of different places. So, if you’ve ever been in trouble with the law, posted something questionable on social media, or experimented with a goatee in college, there’s a good chance AI will find out and let your employer know.— BC Sponsored By American Express A ~Platinum~ Opportunity Business owners, do you have a company credit card that works as hard as you do? The American Express Business Platinum Card® can open up all kinds of possibilities. Wondering what those possibilities are? The Business Platinum Card provides access to exceptional rewards and benefits. Discover how you can unlock more than $4,000 in annual business and travel value, 1 plus earn 5X Membership Rewards Points on flights and prepaid hotels booked through AmexTravel.com. Find out your welcome offer , which could be as high as 300,000 Membership Rewards® points. Terms apply. wait, what? What’s being asked at tech company job interviews? Disney+ If you think first date questions are awkward, you might not want to be interviewed by a tech company. One of the latest examples : Anthropic reportedly asked candidates what they would do if the company abandoned AI and the stock went to $0. But weird questions from tech managers are nothing new. Here are a few that have reportedly been asked, along with our suggested answers: If a Nerf football hit you in the back of the head, what would you do? (Depending on the net worth of the person who threw it, sue.) How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? (Zero. Chicago isn’t real.) What would you do if you were the sole survivor of a plane crash? (Learn to fish, get really tan, and befriend a volleyball.) What do you bring to the table that is world-class? (My ability to take a long lunch.) How many golf balls does it take to fill a school bus? (Give me a driver, put me in a tee box next to a middle school, and let’s find out.) If you were a Muppet, which would you be? (The only correct answer is Gonzo.) Exit interview: While these questions seem like something a drunk guy at a bar or a precocious child would ask, these companies are looking for a candidate to offer a thoughtful and analytical response to show they can solve complicated problems. —DL this is absolutely a test Would you fake-work for a chance to get a job? Unsplash Prepare your “working hard or hardly working?” quippy response: Companies want you to role-play as an employee before they finalize your offer letter. Work trials aren’t brand new, especially in more technical fields, but companies are increasingly leaning on them to find qualified candidates in a job market flooded with AI-optimized résumés and cover letters: It could be an unpaid mock task you complete off-site that mirrors what you’d do on the job. On the other end of the spectrum, the work trial might be a week in the office with the team you could potentially join. If the work you complete on trial benefits the company, the candidate generally has to be paid for it. About two-thirds of companies use some form of skill-based hiring for entry-level roles, according to a 2025 survey conducted by the National Association of Colleges and Employers. In theory, a trial is great for checking a candidate’s skills and collaboration style while weeding out folks who are just really good at interviewing. But they can be a barrier to employed workers who can’t afford to take a full week off work for a long test that might not end in a job offer. And they can quickly turn exploitative when they’re unpaid. Applying for a job feels like screaming into the void. Companies have spent the last few years downsizing after pandemic-era overhiring. With AI supercharging the hiring process from both sides, an in-person element could make finding a job more human…if a candidate can make it past the bots to get to that round.— MM Sponsored By American Express Explore these perks, business owners. With the American Express Business Platinum Card®, you can unlock over $4,000 in
A conversation with Dimensional Fund Advisors' founder. September 13, 2026 Good morning and happy Sunday. The asset management industry has come a long way since Dimensional Fund Advisors was founded by a small team of academics at the University of Chicago. But first, a message from the Advisor Upside team. The RIA M&A train just keeps on rollin’. On September 2, Sequoia Financial Group and Allworth Financial announced acquisitions totaling nearly $3.3 billion in client assets. And it wasn’t all big-game hunting, with Allworth snapping up an Indianapolis-based practice managing $282 million. Among consolidators, over 40% of H1 2026 deals were for firms under $500 million. 1 At this pace, a buyer could price your practice before you do, so it’s better to know your number now before someone in a quarter-zip buys you lunch and makes an offer. A rough multiple of AUM doesn’t always get you there, since much of the value rides on whether the revenue stays put after a sale. So we built a free valuation calculator , in partnership with Diamond Consultants , weighing the same considerations, like your fee-based revenue share, how much rides on your top 10 clients, and whether you run solo or ensemble. See what your practice could be worth. INVESTING STRATEGIES Dimensional’s David Booth Discusses the State of ETFs, Investing and More Photo via Dimensional Fund Advisors He doesn’t get as much media attention as Larry Fink or Bill Ackman, but David Booth, chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, has played a foundational role in the creation of the modern asset management industry. Working alongside Rex Sinquefield since the early 1980s, Booth has championed the idea that academic research is superior to Wall Street intuition. During that time, Dimensional has grown from a fledgling business operating out of a spare room of Booth’s Brooklyn brownstone to a global investment manager with $1.1 trillion in assets under management. He’s no longer running the company, having passed the reins to current co-CEOs Dave Butler and Gerard O’Reilly, but Booth is still intimately involved in setting Dimensional’s direction at a time when innovation in the exchange-traded fund market and related trends are driving another sea change in how professional portfolios are built. We sat down with Booth at Nasdaq’s headquarters in New York (a fitting location given the important historical links between the firms) to get his take on a number of hot topics affecting financial advisors and their clients today. Dimensional’s foundation story and growth were the subject of a feature film funded by the firm and published last year by the Academy Award-winning documentary filmmaker Errol Morris. Does it surprise you that the film has notched more than 32 million views on YouTube? Yeah, that’s really something. It’s gratifying, because our goal with the movie was also about helping more people better understand the financial markets, asset managers and how investing actually works. If they do, then they’ll feel better about participating in the market and will be better able to meet their long-term objectives, so reaching that many people was fantastic. How are you thinking about innovation in the ETF market today? ETFs have been a big part of Dimensional’s run to $1 trillion. Where’s the market heading? Should mutual fund managers be worried? Neither is inherently superior, mutual funds or ETFs, but it’s undeniable that ETFs have some big advantages, starting with the tax efficiency, and the proliferation of active products has just been huge in recent years. So yes, you are seeing tremendous growth on the ETF side and I expect that will continue. The proliferation of ETF share classes is something we’ve been intimately involved in. Vanguard got the permission to do it, I don’t know, 30 years ago, but the SEC hadn’t permitted others to go down that route [Editor’s note: Vanguard’s patent on the ETF share class expired in 2023]. We thought that was a disservice to investors, so we petitioned the SEC for permission and we told everyone what we were doing. Well, something like 80 firms lined up behind us and the regulators decided to open this up last year. That’s a great thing for investors. Another one, and it’s related, is mutual fund conversions to ETFs, where we’ve also been at the forefront. Between conversions and launches, we’re now a top active ETF manager. It’s a lot of innovation, and that’s going to continue here and across the asset management industry. Do you get the sense that ETF innovation might be getting ahead of itself when you see the pace of filings for so many things that are made to be traded intraday and not held for longer? ETFs are increasingly being developed with themes akin to gambling. Personally, I’ve never really thought that leverage was necessary for long-term investors. In my 57 years in this business, if there’s one common theme to all the bankruptcies and catastrophes that’ve come up, it’s leverage of some form. Now, I think there’s nothing wrong with leverage, per se, but it has to be reasonable and managed carefully. I hope investors getting into these products understand that. Some of them, I imagine, do enjoy the gambling aspect here. For these people, a small exposure to products they understand is probably fine, but it’s certainly not for everyone. What about the question of broader participation in the private markets? There has been a big push by some asset managers in that direction, but the jury’s still out on retail investor demand. We could spend a whole conversation on just that topic. But to keep it simple, I would just turn back to where we started. A lot of what we’re trying to do at Dimensional in our collaboration with fiduciary financial advisors is getting more people to invest at all. There are still a lot of people out there that simply don’t fully or even partially participate in the stock market. To think about getting novice investors, and even more experienced inves
Can office-to-residential conversions solve America’s housing shortage? September 13, 2026 PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL Good morning and happy Sunday. After years of permitting, zoning and development, the COVID-era dream of converting America’s newly empty office space into livable housing is finally becoming a reality, with a large wave of conversions reaching the market this year. But are the extreme office makeovers truly a solution to the housing shortage synonymous with city life today? Before we dive in, a word from our sponsor, Northwestern Mutual . After weeks of scrolling listings and shaking hands with real estate agents, you’ve found your ideal home. Good natural light, a spacious yard, an offer at asking price. At this stage, it’s easy to overlook the costs beyond the sticker price: Private mortgage insurance, a recurring bill until your equity clears 20%. Property taxes that swing by thousands depending on the zip code. Maintenance, roughly 1% of your home’s value a year (and that’s a good year). That’s a lot of line items for one purchase. But with the right support , you can get ahead of the game. For almost 170 years, Northwestern Mutual has helped clients grow and protect their money to reach milestones like this. Your advisor builds a personalized plan around your goals and uncovers both blind spots and new opportunities , so you’re ready for anything unexpected before you sign. See how that plan comes together with Northwestern Mutual. * REAL ESTATE Post-Pandemic, ‘Living at the Office’ Takes on New (and Lucrative) Meaning Photo illustration by Connor Lin / The Daily Upside Before the COVID pandemic, millions of Americans griped about living at the office. It was an exxageration, though not necessarily much of one. Now, in a growing number of cities, they have a chance to do so for real, 24 hours a day with all the comforts of (an urban) home, rather than the mere 12 to 16 that might have been common circa 2019. After years of powering through lengthy permitting and zoning processes, followed by complicated construction projects, developers are beginning to manifest at scale the post-pandemic dream of turning empty offices and cubicles in once-bustling professional districts into apartments and condos. This week, for instance, marked the completion of the very first office-to-residential (OTR) conversion in Chicago’s downtown Loop financial district, bringing 117 new apartment units to the area. Five more buildings have already been earmarked for a similar makeover. Meanwhile, 38% of all new housing units in New York City are the product of conversion projects this year, according to a recent analysis of city data by The New York Times , nearly doubling the pace set the previous year and well above the single-digit pre-pandemic norm. Backers hope such conversions will make a dent in the twin 21st-century crises of urban real estate: a glut of office buildings due in large part to the rise of remote work, and a shortage of housing due to a decades-long failure to construct new residential buildings. Solving the problem altogether is another matter, however. Experts told The Daily Upside that the relative gold rush may soon come to an end, as cities simply run out of viable conversion candidates. “A pattern we’re seeing is that the market is conflating ‘vacant’ with ‘convertible,’” Chris Mitchell, senior banking official at Northern Trust Wealth Management, told The Daily Upside. “In reality, structural constraints and capital requirements narrow the pool to a fraction of total inventory. Even when conversions are possible, they’re highly selective.” The Urban Circle of Life While the office-to-residential conversion rush is real, it is hardly a new concept. Particularly in New York City, it’s practically a part of any block’s natural life cycle. The 1980s delivered a generational office-building boom, capped by a recession that prompted city officials to encourage conversions via a tax incentive program in the 1990s. A short decade later, the global financial crisis prompted another round of office space rethinks. “I often joke around that we were doing conversions before it was the cool thing to do,” Spencer Levine, president of NYC-based residential real estate developer RAL Companies, told The Daily Upside of the company’s decades-long history of conversion projects. The energy driving such projects is different today than in the late 1990s and early 2000s, however. Now, “it is a quantity game,” Levine said. “A lot of the conversions that are taking place now are about how many units can we fit in a building, rather than what is the quality of life or quality of unit that is being provided.” The Big Short COVID changed office culture, maybe forever. Whether JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon likes it or not, remote work is seemingly here to stay and has arrived at an equilibrium in recent years. About 26% of paid, full-time workdays in the US were completed from home in July, according to a monthly survey run by economists Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis. That figure is down from a peak of about 30% in 2022, but has held nearly constant for two years and is well above the 7% norm recorded pre-pandemic. Conversely, office occupancy rates remain sharply lower than in pre-covid days. The vacancy rate across 79 mostly urban US markets reached a record 21% earlier this year, according to Moody’s data , well above the pre-pandemic norm of about 16%. As a result, building owners have seen property values swoon. One tower in Chicago’s Loop district sold for $4.2 million in October of last year, well down from the $68 million it last sold for in 2016, according to CoStar data . A 23-story office building at 135 West 50th Street in midtown Manhattan that sold for $332 million in 2006 brought in just $8.5 million in 2024. The industry may still be finding its bottom. In the first two months of the year, sales of distressed office buildings reached $808 mill
Spicy Take Sunday 🌶️ 🥛 'BTC is the purest AI trade' 💅 Spicy Take Sunday 🌶️ Chevy Cassar GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that comes in hotter than a maxi defending their bags on Twitter. Here’s a taste of this week’s menu: 🔥 BTC is the purest AI trade you can buy. 🥵 Crypto OGs are annoyed that BTC got too corporate. 🌶️ Stock certificates are truly archaic. 2022 killed crypto lending. Nexo survived - and is now the 3rd-largest crypto lender in the world. We asked their US COO how. Watch here . HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK 🔥 Bitcoin is the purest AI trade you can buy 🤖 Jordi Visser (Founder of Visser Labs) says everyone keeps framing the AI trade as Nvidia and Micron, but he sees it differently. He's been calling Bitcoin "the purest AI trade" for over a year, arguing that billions of AI agents are useless without financial rails to actually transact on, and that's exactly the role crypto fills. Jordi thinks that thesis just hit its trigger point: The biggest short squeeze in crypto history added $500B to the crypto market cap in a matter of days, and he's now calling for the entire space to hit $50T to $100T within five years. He's not ignoring the memecoin frenzy on Robinhood chain either, seeing it as the same retail energy that shows up right before institutions pile in. 🎙️ Listen to the full episode here . Crypto OGs are annoyed that Bitcoin got too corporate 🏦 Katie Talati (Head of Research at Arca) says there's a real split forming in crypto right now. The people who got in early are watching Bitcoin go from a cyberpunk outsider asset to something BlackRock talks about on CNBC every day, and a lot of them hate it. Katie thinks that discomfort is part of what's fueling renewed interest in privacy coins like Zcash, since some of that original community just wants an asset that still feels private and uninstitutionalized. 🎙️ Listen to the full episode here . Stock certificates are truly archaic 📜 Carlos Domingo (Founder & CEO of Securitize) has run his company for almost nine years without ever holding a physical share certificate for it. Instead, his own stock trades onchain on Solana, through the same rails Securitize built for everyone else. The company is now a licensed transfer agent, broker dealer and RIA, partnered with the two biggest transfer agents in the U.S. plus the New York Stock Exchange on 24/7 trading of tokenized equities. Carlos calls this "the end of the beginning" for tokenization, and he's betting the next phase is consolidation, since a bare tokenization platform without that full licensing stack behind it won't survive what's coming. 🎙️ Listen to the full episode here . NOBODY WANTS TO SELL THEIR CRYPTO 🏦 Selling crypto triggers a tax bill. Borrowing against it doesn't. That's why crypto lending is booming again… and why Nexo is now the third-largest crypto lender in the world. We sat down with Neil Steinhardt, COO of Nexo US, to talk: Why borrowers are choosing credit over selling How Nexo got back into the U.S. (Bakkt, RIAs & the GENIUS Act) What kept them alive when Celsius, BlockFi, and Genesis didn't Where the market goes next - and the M&A wave nobody's positioned for 👉 Watch the full episode here! HOT TAKES OF THE WEEK (P2) 🔥 The AI layoffs are already happening, you just can't see them yet 👻 Martin Toman (Lead Analyst at Milk Road) says the AI job-loss story won’t show up as dramatic layoff headlines, at least not yet. He thinks it’s happening, but only underneath the surface for now. Companies at the AI frontier are hiring aggressively and eating market share from slower competitors, but those older companies won’t die overnight, they’ll just bleed out over the next few years. Martin thinks the real wave of visible layoffs only hits once money gets scarce again, when higher rates finally force companies to tighten up. 🎙️ Listen to the full episode here . The market hasn't caught up to what's actually happening in memory 🧠 Vincent (Lead AI Researcher, Milk Road) points to Micron's valuation as proof the market hasn't caught up to what's actually happening in memory. Despite locking in long-term supply contracts with floor pricing, Micron's forward P/E sits somewhere between 6 and 12, a bear-market multiple for a company sitting at the center of an AI memory shortage. Vincent's view is that investors have PTSD from the last memory boom-and-bust cycle and are pricing in a crash that these new long-term, floor-priced contracts with Samsung and others were specifically designed to prevent. The way he sees it: Micron is no longer cyclical, it's a structurally repriced bet the market just hasn't caught up to yet. 🎙️ Listen to the full episode here . BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪 Free seminar on blockchain and private markets. Our PRO analyst, Martin, is joining a live webinar to discuss where VC money is flowing. Register for free here .* Question: If you had $10k to invest ANYWHERE right now, where would you put it? Wholesale inflation is up: PPI reaccelerated in August, year-on-year we're at +5.4%. Jordi Visser: "When you get all mad and say this house of cards is going to crumble down... it's not. The governments can't allow it to." *this is sponsored content. 👉 Watch the full episode here! RATE TODAY’S EDITION What'd you think of today's edition? 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 F**king great 🥛🥛🥛 Meh, do better 🥛 You didn't bring the heat MILKY MEMES 🤣 Source: @ToolySOL Source: @ToolySOL This content is for educational purposes only. Read full disclaimer Interested in reaching smart readers like you? 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The plumbing works, now what? 📉 The value gap Stellar Q2 token holder report Blockworks finds that Stellar had its strongest quarter of institutional adoption to date, with tokenized RWAs doubling to $3 billion, payment volume rising 68.8% to $16.43 billion and DTCC selecting the network for tokenized securities trials. Stellar is also evolving beyond payments, with Soroban smart contracts now generating 94.4% of network fees and 82.4% of onchain trading volume. However, network adoption does not translate directly into value accrual for XLM. Fees remain minimal, are neither burned nor distributed, and circulating supply increased 2.8% during the quarter. Growth also remains concentrated, with four issuers holding 92.5% of tokenized assets, making issuer diversification and DTCC’s implementation key milestones to watch. The Einstein generation of DeFi Rakka from Omnipair published a piece arguing that DeFi’s current shortcomings should be treated as unsolved design problems rather than fundamental limits. Drawing an analogy to physics before Einstein, he argues that problems like AMM adverse selection, lending tradeoffs, and fragmented liquidity may be the anomalies that eventually lead to entirely new financial primitives. He calls today’s builders the “Einstein generation of DeFi”: not because they have already found the breakthrough, but because they are producing the experiments, failures, and partial solutions from which the next coherent model of open finance may emerge. Pretraining progress is mostly coming from data Dwarkesh Patel and Jerry Han find that improvements in training data contributed far more to pretraining progress between 2019 and 2025 than changes to model architecture. At a fixed compute budget, newer datasets produced a 12x gain in compute efficiency compared with 3.7x from newer model recipes, with most of the gains occurring independently. However, model research still played a crucial role by making larger training runs stable and practical. The results come from relatively small models, so the balance may differ at the frontier. If data remains the main driver of pretraining progress, the key question is whether synthetic data can offset the finite supply of high-quality material available online. MetaDAO: Built for the net ICO boom Blockworks Research argues that MetaDAO has proven its ownership coin model but has yet to solve distribution, with launch cadence remaining below two ICOs per month. Proposed US rules could expand its addressable market by allowing qualifying projects to raise up to $5 million from retail investors, although ownership coins must avoid being classified as securities. MetaDAO is addressing its bottlenecks through permissionless launches, its Colosseum pipeline, investor scoring and a dedicated fund for smaller raises. However, increasing launch volume alone will not justify META’s valuation. The bull case depends on MetaDAO producing breakout companies that sustain secondary trading, while the base case leaves the token roughly fairly valued near $6. Brought to you by: Avalanche Summit NYC returns September 16-17, bringing together the institutions, enterprises, investors, and builders turning blockchain technology into real business outcomes. From tokenized markets and institutional finance to payments and consumer applications, the Summit will explore how production-ready infrastructure is enabling faster settlement, lower costs, and entirely new products and revenue streams. Use promo code BLOCKWORKS15 for 15% off! Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 Blockworks 133 W 19TH ST New York, New York 10011, United States