A unanimous FOMC hike rattles legacy equities while crypto holds green. Warsh Drops The Hammer But Bitcoin Defies Rate Hikes A unanimous FOMC hike rattles legacy equities while crypto holds green. Sep 17 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . GM Investors The Federal Reserve delivered exactly what the market braced for this week. Chairman Kevin Warsh led a unanimous 12-0 vote to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. The target range now sits firmly at 3.75% to 4.00%. This move marks the first official rate increase since July 2023. Our desk is actively measuring the real-time reaction across global financial markets. The traditional relationship between central bank tightening and risk asset sell-offs is completely fracturing. Bitcoin and mega-cap technology names are absorbing the hawkish Fed policy with remarkable relative strength. Institutional capital flows suggest investors are prioritizing structural growth over near-term yield sensitivity. Simultaneously, extreme political friction is brewing between the White House and the central bank. This Is The Only "Buy The Dip" That Matters In September. TOKEN2049 ticket prices go up Sept 23. The discount code expires with your window. You wouldn't fade a 10% discount on a trade. Don't fade it on the one conference where Vitalik, CZ, and BlackRock share the same stage. $539 with code CRYPTOBANTER. Sept 23 is your cutoff. GET 10% discount and register Fed Policy Clashes With Washington As Equities Fracture The FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. This hike lifts the target midpoint to 3.875% following a decisive, unanimous 12-0 vote. The committee closed its statement with an uncompromising line, pledging to deliver price stability. Our research confirms this move was preemptive tightening against inflation rather than a reaction to economic weakness. Chair Kevin Warsh defended the decision, stating the Fed is hard-pressed to call current conditions restrictive. He pointed to resilient domestic spending, strong credit flows, and hotter-than-expected inflation data. Warsh also cited escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East as an ongoing driver of supply shocks. The plain fact, he emphasized, is that inflation has remained too high for too long. Warsh offered key structural context on the recent spike in Treasury yields. He explained that higher yields reflect intense competition for capital across the broader economy. Heavy government debt issuance is now directly competing with hyperscalers building massive data center capacity. The Fed will not ease policy while structural investment continues to fuel price pressures. The political backlash to the rate hike arrived almost immediately. President Donald Trump publicly demanded the Fed slash interest rates to 1% or lower. Delivering that target would require an unprecedented 300 basis point cut from current levels. By comparison, the largest single-meeting cuts in modern history were just 100 basis points during the 2008 and 2020 crises. This institutional divide between the White House and the central bank is widening significantly. It follows recent administration threats to stop trading with over 50 partners over deficits and rate levels. Our desk views this friction as a primary driver for macro trading volatility heading into year-end. The unanimous vote proves the Fed will prioritize price stability over political rhetoric. Equity heatmaps clearly reveal capital fleeing cyclical sectors and reallocating into secular growth. Financials dropped sharply, while softening oil prices dragged ExxonMobil down 3.54% and Chevron down 2.86%. Conversely, semiconductor stocks absorbed substantial institutional liquidity. Intel surged 4.03% and AMD gained 1.65%, underscoring investor appetite for mission-critical infrastructure. The September Dot Plot And Impending BOJ Action The Fed released the September Summary of Economic Projections alongside the rate decision. Eighteen officials submitted their forecasts for the future path of interest rates. Chairman Warsh notably declined to submit a personal dot for these projections. He stated he was not waiting breathlessly on any single data point. Warsh argued that trends matter heavily while individual data points remain noisy. Our desk heavily scrutinized the revised dot plot to map future liquidity constraints. The data reveals a structurally higher terminal rate environment through the end of the decade. The median dot projects an appropriate federal funds rate of 4.1% by late 2026. This represents a sharp increase from the 3.8% projection recorded in June. Twelve officials anticipate one additional 25 basis point hike this calendar year. Four participants foresee two more hikes, while only two believe the cycle is finished. The median rate path holds at 4.1% entirely through 2027. The long-run neutral rate projection was firmly established at 3.2%. Real GDP growth was revised upward to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027. Headline PCE inflation is heavily elevated, now projected at 3.7% for 2026. The core PCE inflation projection was officially revised upward to 3.4%. This aggressive projection proves the committee believes growth can absorb tighter monetary policy. They strongly prefer remaining restrictive over risking a premature and dangerous rate cut. This domestic hawkishness creates severe complications for global currency markets. Traders are aggressively repositioning ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting this Friday. Overnight swap markets are pricing a 74% implied probability of a Japanese rate hike. A simultaneous tightening cycle from Washington and Tokyo will massively drain global liquidity. The unwinding of cheap yen credit will forcefully test highly leveraged corporate balance sheets worldwide. 25,000 People. One Building. 48

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Warsh got the Committee. Markets are still arguing the path. 🚨5 Smart Trades With One More Hike and BTC Holding $76K Warsh got the Committee. Markets are still arguing the path. Sep 17 READ IN APP None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer . Hey Traders, The Fed already delivered. Warsh hiked, the vote was unanimous, and the message was one more move before year-end if inflation stays sticky. Markets treated the quarter-point as known and spent Thursday arguing about the path, not the print. Oil is still the inflation hinge, but the war premium eased a touch. Talk of a faster Saudi pipeline repair pulled crude off the highs and let the 10-year slip back under 5%. Equities and chips used that opening. They bounced with yields, not because policy turned easy. Bitcoin reclaimed its range after the first sweep and is trading the calendar again. Clarity already failed. ETF flows are still weak. The next test is Tokyo, then whether energy stays calm enough for the Fed to stop at one more hike. Here is what we are watching. Poll of the Day ( Presented by Rain Trade ) 🎯 POLL After Warsh’s hike, what’s the next Fed move this year? 🔼 One more hike ⏸️ Pause / hold 📉 Cut Today’s Charts: Chart #1 – Litecoin(LTCUSDT) 2-Hour Chart #2 – Bitcoin Cash(BCHUSDT) 12-Hour Chart #3 – TAO(TAOUSDT) 8-Hour Chart #4 – UK100(UK100) 2-Hour Chart #5 – Strategy(MSTR) 8-Hour Chart #1 – Litecoin(LTCUSDT) 2-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Trader J (For the chart screenshot, ) Looking for a short on Litecoin back into the 0.5 Fib at 54.85 + POC, with the VAH around 55.50 adding resistance just above. I don’t want to see sustained candle closes above the VAH; looking for rejection from this zone and continuation back toward the 200-day SMA. Trade Levels: Entry: $54.85 Stop Loss: $56.55 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $50.31 Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research , you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto. Chart #2 – Bitcoin Cash(BCHUSDT) 12-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Chaoss (For the chart screenshot, ) Trade idea to wait for BCH to dip down into the long support zone, bullish order block, POC and 0.786 pullback, which we have been to multiple times already. We have left room below on the stop loss for a liquidity sweep too, targets based on horizontals, resistance areas, and a bearish order block. As we approach the lower order block we will look for a combination of a buy signal on chart, bullish divergence to print on the oscillator and signs of selling exhaustion and engulfing marks on the candles. Trade Levels: Entry: $203 Stop Loss: $264 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $194 Chart #3 – TAO(TAOUSDT) 8-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Panda (For the chart screenshot, ) It recently TAO Currently bouncing off the 100/50SMA as but front running the 8h POC and macro .786 FIB situated below current bounce zone at the 211 region. It seems the market has digested the recent Rate hike news positively after aggressively selling off for the past week leading into cpi/ppi/rate hike news. If momentum pick up to the upside, any pullbacks on TAO to the yearly open/macro 786 fib region represents a retest long opportunity. Areas of confluence 8H POC + 100SMA + rising trend + 786 fib + bullish OB. Trade Levels: Entry: $212 Stop Loss: $199 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $260 This Is The Only “Buy The Dip” That Matters In September. TOKEN2049 ticket prices go up Sept 23. The discount code expires with your window. You wouldn’t fade a 10% discount on a trade. Don’t fade it on the one conference where Vitalik, CZ, and BlackRock share the same stage. $539 with code CRYPTOBANTER. Sept 23 is your cutoff. GET 10% discount and register Chart #4 – UK100(UK100) 2-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: Chaoss (For the chart screenshot, ) (UK100 refers to the Equities and not a cryptocurrency.) Looking for a short on UK100 into the 0.618 Fib, descending trendline and monthly POC. This is a strong resistance confluence zone where I’ll be looking for rejection and continuation lower back toward the monthly VWAP. Trade Levels: Entry: $10,840 Stop Loss: $10,888 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $10,720 Chart #5 – Strategy(MSTR) 8-Hour( Powered by Rain Trade 📊) Chartist: The Nagel (For the chart screenshot, ) (MSTR refers to the stock of Strategy and not a cryptocurrency.) MSTR is still trying to complete its wave 4 and i have locked in on the 100% extension as an ideal zone for a bounce , the 1:1 sits between the 0.382 and the 0.5 fib , we also have VWAP support from the low and the higher low and on top of that we have a nice Horri shelf that can be added as confluence. Trade Levels: Entry: $120 Stop Loss: $112 Take Profit Levels (TP): TP1: $150 25,000 People. One Building. 48 Hours. Zero Excuses. TOKEN2049 Singapore is where the next cycle’s partnerships get signed. If You’re Not At Marina Bay Sands Oct 7–8, You’re Reading The Recaps. Two Weeks To Lock $539 Entry To The Biggest Crypto Room Of The Year. Use code CRYPTOBANTER at checkout for 10% off the $599 . Banter’s Take The Fed did its job, and now the market has to live with the path. A unanimous hike plus a signal for one more move keeps policy in the restrictive lane, so relief rallies from here are being bought on yields cooling rather than any pivot toward easy money. Until that distinction matters less, upside will stay conditional. Energy remains the swing factor. The war premium is fading as pipeline repair talk caps crude, which lets the ten-year slip and gives equities and chips room to bounce. Bitcoin is trading the calendar again after reclaiming its range, but weak ETF flows mean conviction still needs to show up, Tokyo first, then whether oil stays calm enough for the Fed to stop at one more hike. Across today’s setups the theme is the same: wait for the level, don’t chase the candle. Whether it’s

The Fed raised interest rates... September 17, 2026 Presented By Bon voyage. It seems you all are content to kick back and order a second margarita at the Chili’s in Terminal 2. Travelers gave US airports improved marks for overall satisfaction for the third year in a row in J.D. Power’s latest North America Airport Satisfaction Study—likely because many airports have in fact added newer gates and terminals. And if you have to get stuck dealing with a delayed flight somewhere, know that travelers ranked airports in Minneapolis, Tampa, and Charleston among the best. — Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Dave Lozo, Holly Van Leuven, Abby Rubenstein In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into: The Fed raising interest rates for the first time in three years Ed Sheeran’s troubled concert tour Viral mom group drama that turned out to be an ad Markets Nasdaq 25,978.42 -0.01% S&P 7,551.81 -0.45% Dow 51,461.9 -1.21% 10-Year 5.006% +1.0 bps Bitcoin $75,701.6 +0.12% SpaceX $150.88 +5.15% Data is provided by *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:30pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. Markets: Stocks did not give Kevin Warsh a standing ovation on his big day, falling yesterday after the Fed raised interest rates and Warsh highlighted continued inflation risks. Stock spotlight: At least someone had a stellar day. SpaceX rose after announcing it scheduled its next Starship launch date for Sept. 22. Markets Sponsored by Miso Robotics This stock price changes at midnight: Everyday investors like you backed Miso Robotics 44k+ times. Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested too. Claim your stake before Miso’s share price changes at midnight tonight . GETTING A RAISE The Fed raises rates for the first time in 3 years Andrew Harnik/Getty Images In a clean sweep, the Fed’s Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise interest rates yesterday by a quarter point to the 3.75%–4% range. It’s the first time the Fed has increased interest rates since July 2023—and most Fed officials expect to do so one more time this year, since inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Everyone knew it was coming. With the Fed’s preferred inflation measure showing July inflation holding strong at 3.7% compared to the same time last year, a separate measure of inflation also ratcheting up, and no end in sight for the war in Iran sending oil prices up, investors and economists would have been more surprised if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t announce a rate increase. Still, it’s a big deal, since these rates set borrowing costs, affecting loans for individuals and businesses and everything from mortgage rates to AI investment. But just because it was anticipated doesn’t mean there wasn’t drama. The rate cut comes after President Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts…and nominated Warsh as Jerome Powell’s successor assuming he’d deliver them: The hike was viewed as a positive sign for Fed independence, and Warsh dodged numerous questions during his post-announcement press conference about the president’s potential reaction. Trump posted on social media claiming that rates should be at 1% “or less,” and urged the Fed to lower interest rates without calling out anyone in particular. How have markets responded? Much of the movement happened before the announcement, with mortgage rates and Treasury bond yields spiking, as markets anticipated rates would rise. But Warsh’s brief remarks yesterday, in which he repeatedly mentioned that inflation had not abated, sent stocks down over fears of future increases. (Warsh spoke for just under 30 minutes rather than the typical 45 minutes.) Looking ahead… while Warsh was careful not to precommit to any future move, comments underlining his dissatisfaction over inflation’s trajectory drove home the central bank’s intent.— MM Sponsored By Miso Robotics An 8,000x oversubscription could reset robotics stocks Hold onto your nuts and bolts: Robotics is having a potentially game-changing moment for investors . A recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed 8,000x. Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics companies’ stocks industry-wide. Meanwhile, everyday investors like you found a different way into this boom: a private-stage company named Miso Robotics. They’ve already invested 44k+ times. And until midnight PT, you can join them at $5.48/share . Miso’s Flippy Fry Station robot already has a $4b annual revenue potential. But 2026 has been even bigger. Two recent acquisitions added big-name partners like Jersey Mike’s and grew Miso’s patent portfolio 10x. Flippy’s now even manning the fryer of an NBA arena. Invest in Miso at $5.48/share before midnight PT . World Tour de headlines Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/Getty Images 🇪🇺 🇨🇦 EU open to welcoming Canada as an “associate member.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday that she’d work to make Canada the first associate member of the 27-country bloc—which would likely include closer economic and defense ties. Even if you weren’t paying attention in geography class, you’re probably aware that Canada is not in Europe. However, von der Leyen said a closer alliance makes sense because Canada, its Prime Minister Mark Carney (who was present for her speech) and Europe “believe in democracy.” Carney, who is scheduled to address the EU Parliament today, has been pushing for closer ties with Europe amid a trade war with the US. The European relationship with the US has also shifted as the US has pulled back support for NATO.— AR 🇺🇸 President Trump threatened EU with tariffs over Canada’s associate member bid. “If I think it’s at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things,” Trump told reporters when asked about Canada potentially becoming an associate member of the EU. Earlier this year, the bloc seemed wary of Germany’s proposal to make Ukraine an associate member. EU President Ursula von der Leyen said that a potential arrangement with Canada would focus on shared manufa

Plus: Climate Week and costs | Thursday, September 17, 2026 Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Sep 17, 2026 🌺 Aloha Thursday! Long-term Treasury yields have slipped in the wake of the Federal Reserve's rate hike , and oil prices are lower. That's all helping push S&P 500 futures into positive territory this morning. 👀 Nothing major on the economic front today, though monthly housing starts and pending home sales for August should shed more light on the moribund U.S. residential real estate market. 🚨 Situational awareness: The AI trade could again come into focus after OpenAI disclosed six new instances of misbehavior by its AI models, including concealing mistakes, seeking unauthorized credentials, uploading files to the internet or communicating across supposedly isolated training environments. 🗓️ Today, we are mucking around in the crude oil futures curve, which seems to be pricing in a more durable impact of the recent escalation in the Iran war. Plus, a look at how energy affordability is becoming a key component of the climate change debate. Allez! In 971 words, a 3.5-minute read. 1 big thing: Investors see elevated prices well into next year By Matt Phillips Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Markets/Matt Phillips; Notes: Dates on the bottom axis indicate the month of delivery for the contract. Markets now see disruptions to the energy markets — the Iran war foremost among them — keeping energy prices elevated well into next year. Why it matters: Unlike surging spot prices for crude oil — cash paid to get actual deliveries of products ASAP — prices in the energy futures markets have been slower to price in a long-lasting impact of the conflict. That could be changing. The latest: Brent crude futures contracts for April 2027 jumped to more than $85 a barrel this week, the highest since the war began at the end of February and higher than they were during the peak for oil prices back in early May. Zoom out: The upswing is part of a broader adjustment in market expectations, after drone attacks on an alternative crude oil export route to the Red Sea and attacks on a key pipeline. The East-West pipeline, which had been moving as much as 4 million barrels of oil per day to the Saudi Arabian city of Yanbu on the Red Sea, is expected to be out of service for weeks after drone attacks. The latest prices of Brent oil futures set for delivery over the next six months or so have jumped higher in recent days. (That's the pink line in the chart above, compared with the same contract prices a week, a month and a year ago.) What they're saying: "You can see how the curve is actually shifting upward, as we see more escalation," Joe DeLaura, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, tells Axios. Traders are now considering an increasing chance of attacks on other diversionary export points, such as the United Arab Emirates' pipeline leading to its export terminal in Fujairah, he says. "That's what I see as the next stage of escalation. If those probabilities go from 2% to 5% to 10%, then, yeah, we need to start pricing crude much more aggressively." Independent energy analyst Rory Johnston, writer of the Commodity Context Substack, stresses that the main thing the futures curve now shows is extreme tightness in the market for near-term deliveries. "But because this crisis has lasted longer, I think the effect is beginning to, kind of, spread further down the curve," Johnston says. "You can interpret it as being seen as something that is more generally durable and long-lived. " Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips Yes, but: Johnston adds that too much shouldn't be read into the movement of the futures curve. The bottom line: "No one knows what's going to happen. All we know is that we really need crude and diesel today," he says. A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less With AI upending work and life, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz, the bestselling authors of "Smart Brevity" offer a one-stop survival guide to dramatically improving your life, work and happiness. The idea: Toxic complexity clogs our inboxes and calendars. We can do more, but first we need to simplify. Get your copy. 2. Costs take center stage at Climate Week By Amy Harder Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios Climate change is still melting ice and threatening polar bears, but the conversation at New York's upcoming Climate Week is centered on something much closer to home: the cost of energy. Why it matters: With the Iran war pushing up energy costs, the AI boom driving power demand and the midterms looming, affordability is becoming a central test for climate action. Driving the news: Two reports released this morning show how affordability is reshaping the energy transition. S&P Global finds the world's most ambitious climate targets increasingly out of reach as energy demand soars in developing economies where affordability and security are cementing their place as top priorities. The U.S. Energy Storage Coalition framed its entire report around affordability: Scale batteries rapidly because they'll save money. Its analysis estimates that broad storage deployment could save the U.S. power system at least $250 billion over the next decade. "This climate week is also going to be energy security week and energy affordability week," said Dan Yergin, vice chairman at S&P Global. State of play: Affordability isn't new to Climate Week NYC, which begins Sunday. But it's especially prominent in this year's official agenda, with sessions focused on delivering power "reliably, affordably, at scale and pace" and one titled, "Climate as growth: how to communicate opportunity, not cost." By the numbers: Average U.S. residential electricity prices are expected to rise about 5% this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, though the increase varies by region and the role of AI-driven demand in the increase is hotly debated. Regular gasoline now averages $4.44 a gallon, up 39% from a year ago

Plus: AI might drive firms to hire more advisors. September 17, 2026 PRESENTED BY Good morning. It’s dangerous to go alone. There are no cheat codes in investing, but Morningstar is looking to provide some tips and tricks. In its latest ad campaign, the financial analytics firm aims to break down the differences between public and private market assets, from pricing and disclosure to liquidity, fees, benchmarks and risk measures. And it’s all wrapped up in a very video game-y package. The first ad features an 8-bit investor speed-dashing like Sonic the Hedgehog, jumping on bricks and collecting stars like Super Mario and dungeon-crawling like Link from The Legend of Zelda , all while navigating public and private market obstacles. Honestly, comparing private markets to retro gaming is pretty spot on. There’s a reason some modern games are described as “Nintendo hard.” INDUSTRY NEWS The Clarity Act Failed to Advance. It’s Still Business As Usual Photo by Getty Images via Unsplash So much for 20/20 vision. The Senate voted this week to block consideration of the Clarity Act, a bill crafted to provide regulatory guidance on cryptocurrencies, strengthen consumer protections and make institutions more comfortable participating in the asset class. In the absence of federal regulation, the SEC and CFTC will continue to advance their own regulations. It’s a blow to the crypto industry, but one that was largely expected, and for investors, not much has changed. But for advisors, it’s a reminder of the importance of educating clients on crypto, said Don Friedman, CEO of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals. “Since the federal government was unable to provide clear rules to the roads, it’s even more important that end investors use an advisor to get educated on this asset class,” Friedman said. “Would the passage of Clarity give people more comfort and increase the probability of the major cryptocurrencies rising in value? Yes, but presently, it’s reflective in the market that it’s business as usual.” Who’s the Ref? With no federal legislation, the regulation of crypto will fall to the agencies. “What you’ll probably see is new rulemaking from both the SEC and CFTC that will make the rules for advisors and what they can participate in,” said Joe Sticco, cofounder of Cryptex Finance, adding that FINRA will also likely step up. “I don’t really think that it’ll be much of a difference versus Clarity.” But because agency regulation is not the same as laws passed by Congress, the SEC and CFTC could become less crypto-friendly if a Democrat ends up in the White House in two years, Friedman said. “They’re likely going to replace [SEC Chairman Paul] Atkins and put in a Democrat-leaning SEC chair, and they can unwind everything that Atkins does.” Regardless, the crypto market’s reaction was somewhat muted: The price of bitcoin fell from around $78,000 on Monday to about $76,000 at the close of markets on Wednesday. Spot bitcoin ETFs did have outflows after the news, shedding $450 million on Tuesday, the largest daily outflow since June, according to SoSoValue data. Dipping a Toe After the Dip. The price decline could give long-term investors an opportunity to do some dollar-cost averaging in the crypto market, Friedman suggested. “It was prudent for investors who were looking to either buy or sell to wait until there was clarity on whether or not this thing passed,” he said. “Now that it didn’t pass, and it seems to be that the market is relatively calm, I think it could be an opportunity to put one foot in the water.” Written by Quinn Waller PRESENTED BY CONQUEST Give Every Client the VIP Treatment We all know how long it takes to build a full financial plan from scratch. When you run an independent shop, that usually means the depth and personalization in your best plans goes to a select few households. It’s time to roll out the red carpet for everyone. Conquest’s Strategic Advice Manager ® (SAM) , the verifiable AI engine already powering plans at 6 of the top 10 banks in North America, is coming to independent advisors next. Evaluating hundreds of strategies at once, SAM can draft you a personalized plan in minutes. Once a plan goes live, clients receive real-time updates , to-do lists, and what-if scenarios they can explore on their own, keeping your relationships warm without adding another meeting to your calendar. See how Conquest is bringing bank-grade planning to RIAs, IBDs, and independent firms. WEALTHTECH AI Won’t Replace Advisors. It May Actually Add More It requires little imagination to picture artificial intelligence as a potential career-killer. The reality, however, may be quite different for financial advisors. Advisor headcount is actually expected to grow as AI expands productivity and work capacity, according to Cerulli research conducted from May to July at firms holding a combined $1.2 trillion in assets. Over the next two years, RIAs said they plan to do a lot of hiring, with 73% making junior advisors a top priority, 67% bringing on more service associates and more than half of firms focusing on senior advisors. All of that expansion is partially a result of AI reducing manual and administrative work while improving the quality of client communications. “It is not lost upon the financial industry that this is a huge deal,” tech-stock bull Dan Ives said during a panel at the Future Proof Festival this week. He said the AI revolution will be a net positive across all industries. “More jobs will be created than taken away when it’s all said and done.” Harnessing AI effectively is also essential to attracting more clients, especially at the high-net-worth end of the market amid the great wealth transfer, said David Barnard, founder of estate planning fintech firm Luminary. “The firms that get this right are not just going to win the great wealth transfer, they’re going to grow their businesses faster today,” he told Advisor Upside. Bigger Isn’t Always Better But while

Plus: How do you spell GLP-weight loss side effects? Tum ta tum tums. September 17, 2026 PRESENTED BY CAPTERRA Good morning. A growing number of Americans think CEOs should not be spouting off on social media and should just put a sock in it re: political and social issues. Just 55% of respondents said they are in favor of big companies being outspoken about issues that matter to them, down from 65% in 2018. Opinions, however, vary significantly across issues. For example, 76% of Americans said they’re fine hearing from CEOs about clean air or water, and 71% are OK with sustainability. But only 27% said executives should talk about politics and 21% said as much for religion. Investors no doubt agree on the last one, believing the only object of worship should be the almighty dollar. MARKETS S&P 500 7,551.81 ▼ -0.45% DJI 51,461.90 ▼ -1.21% INTC $101.05 ▲ +4.03% Stock data as of market close on September 16, 2026. ENERGY Fed Raises Interest Rates for First Time in Three Years as Diesel, Gas Prices Surge Photo via Paul Weaver/Sipa USA/Newscom How high are oil prices? High enough to shift the balance of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, with the benchmark Brent crude index lingering around $105 per barrel, the central bank’s monetary policy committee announced its unanimous decision to raise the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter-point. The increase, which takes the rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, is the first since 2023, a move that looked far from certain as recently as one week ago when traders were penciling in just a 60% chance of a hike, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. A lot can change in just a few days. Spot Check “The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at a news conference Wednesday, while pointing to the war in Iran as a chief reason for adjusting his previously dovish stance. Attacks late last week by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, used to divert oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, forced the closure of the critical artery. Ahead of the shutdown, the pipeline was moving about 4 million barrels of oil per day, or about 4% of global supply. Its absence looks like enough to crack an already fragile energy market. Options to ease the supply blockage, such as strategic reserves, are “largely now played out, and we don’t have nearly the buffers in the system that we did when it began,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at an energy conference last Friday. Crude prices have jumped to their highest levels since the start of the war, and gas prices climbed to about $4.37 per gallon on Wednesday while diesel prices reached a record $6.31 per gallon, according to AAA. There are no indications of a turnaround in the near future: Americans have spent an additional $107 billion on gas and diesel since the military’s attacks on Iran began in February, according to estimates from the Climate Solutions Lab at Brown University. Diesel prices in some states may soon cross the $7 threshold, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Barron’s . Meanwhile, households that use heating oil could see costs increase from $1,749 to $2,520 this winter, National Energy Assistance Directors Association executive director Mark Wolfe said. Up in the Air: What’s next? Twelve of the Fed’s monetary policymakers projected another quarter-point increase by the end of the year, while four predicted two such hikes. Speaking of projections: Executives at both United and American Airlines said Wednesday that they may decrease flight capacity to offset rising fuel costs. Translation: Book your holiday flights ASAP. Written by Brian Boyle PRESENTED BY CAPTERRA Is Your Software Actually Delivering ROI? Photo via Capterra You signed off on the software, sat through the demo and agreed on a rollout plan. Then everyone got busy, and nobody has checked back since to see if it’s actually helping you. If this brings you flashbacks, you’re not alone: Capterra has found that 66% of software buyers hit an unexpected implementation problem, regret the purchase, or both. To protect your budget, Capterra has written a free guide that breaks down four signs an implementation is delivering value : real usage (we’re talking more than log-ins), measurable time savings, fewer manual workarounds and stakeholder buy-in that lasts beyond the launch honeymoon. You’ll also learn to spot the warning signs of a failing rollout , so you can course-correct before the renewal arrives and you’re sitting on an uncomfortable video call. Read the free guide. HEALTHCARE Tums-Maker’s Sales Grow as Weight-Loss Drug Users Grapple With Uncomfortable Side Effects Photo via Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group/Newscom Novo’s semaglutide and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, the two major GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on the market, are locked down under patent until the mid-2030s. That doesn’t mean only two companies will be benefiting from the boom, though. The GLP-1 companion trade is flourishing. One of its unheralded stars, Haleon, the British consumer healthcare goods giant that makes Tums, among other things, told Reuters Wednesday that it has significantly boosted sales of products that counter common GLP-1 side effects like gastrointestinal flare-ups. Do the Math It all adds up rather quickly. More than one in 10 Americans take a GLP-1 medication for weight loss, according to a July Gallup poll. And a peer-reviewed study published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings last year found that 40% to 70% of GLP-1 patients experience gastrointestinal issues including nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation. Haleon, which was spun off from GSK in 2022, makes two go-to over-the-counter products familiar to anyone with abdominal pain or digestive problems, whether induced by GLP-1s or Taco Bell. The first is painkiller Advil, and the second is the aforementioned antacid tablets Tums, which provide relief from heartburn and stomach aches. One

This won’t derail crypto. Here’s why... 🥛 CLARITY failed, crypto didn’t 💪 This won’t derail crypto. Here’s why... Rohit Chauhan GM. This is Milk Road, the crypto newsletter that's the backstage crew making the market's chaos look choreographed. Here’s what we’ve got for you today: ✍️ CLARITY failed, crypto didn’t. 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: The CLARITY Act Failed - What Happens to Crypto Now? 🍪 Polymarket traders are pricing in an 88% chance of a 25 bps rate hike by the FOMC. On Sept 23, Milk Road's Martin sits down with Alumni Ventures to talk about blockchain and private markets. Save your free seat here. Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko. CLARITY FAILED, CRYPTO DIDN’T 👀 In our Monday newsletter, our in-house crypto whiz, John Gillen, said that Tuesday’s CLARITY vote was tremendously bullish for Bitcoin and crypto at large. He predicted Bitcoin could close above $83K this week if the vote went our way. Unfortunately, it didn’t. The cloture vote needed three-fifths of the House to vote in the affirmative, but ended with 49 for, 50 against, and one no-vote. Remember: the cloture vote wasn’t the Senate voting to make CLARITY law, but a vote on whether the Senate should even consider debating the bill in the first place. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, the torchbearer of the CLARITY bill, said that for over a year, Democrats made countless demands and amendments to the bill, and as soon as those were met, they went right back and demanded even more. By some estimates, more than 120 concessions were made to the bill following Democratic pushbacks. So that’s the politics of it. But what actually happened? Source: U.S. Senate Some commentators claim the primary failure was the bill's ethics provisions. Democrats wanted to extend the ethics rules to cover dependent children, require covered officials to sell certain crypto holdings within 180 days, tighten enforcement, place limits on ethics waivers, and require crypto promoters to disclose compensation. These demands were rejected by the Republicans. Some Democratic leaders named President Trump and his family as having pocketed ~$1.4B from crypto deals and criticized the crypto industry for wanting Congress to do its bidding by passing the Act. Crypto Twitter was also abuzz with bankers aggressively lobbying against CLARITY, fearing a ‘deposit flight’ if provisions related to rewards for holding a payment stablecoin remained as-is. With the midterm elections knocking on their doorstep, neither party wanted to send a message of weakness to their respective voter bases. As a result, crypto just lost the biggest bill it has chased in a decade. Good news is: the story ain’t over yet. Regulators now hold the reins from here on out, and they’re continuing on as if Tuesday never happened… FREE SEMINAR ON BLOCKCHAIN & PRIVATE MARKETS Is VC capital still flowing into crypto or has AI taken it all? Where is venture capital actually deploying across crypto and fintech right now? Join Sophia Zhao (Partner at Alumni Ventures ) and Martin from Milk Road for a live fireside conversation covering: Where capital is moving across blockchain and fintech What the next generation of blockchain companies are actually building How accredited investors can get exposure to private markets The best part? It’s completely free to attend and takes just one hour. Save your free seat here. CLARITY FAILED, CRYPTO DIDN’T (P2) 👀 Most of what CLARITY promised already exists. In March, SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig signed a cooperation agreement. Six days later, they published a joint token taxonomy that sorts crypto into five buckets: Tools. Securities. Collectibles. Stablecoins. Digital commodities. In August, the SEC put its ‘Regulation Crypto Assets’ framework out for comment, while Selig has already told staff to start building a market-structure regime with powers the agency already holds. Here’s a snippet from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s recent memo: Source: Bitwise Investments None of this requires a vote of confidence from the Senate. Hell yeah! But while this means crypto goes on as usual, we’re still paying a price - and that price is permanence. A future Chair can rewrite agency guidance without any oversight, while undoing a law takes another act of Congress, which almost nobody pulls off. That’s why the big allocators were waiting on a statute. The market reaction: Bitcoin was down 3% from Monday’s $78K close to ~$75.8K. ETH dropped ~4.5%. SOL dropped ~5.4%. Listed crypto equities reacted worse: Coinbase closed ~10.1% down. Circle dropped ~11.4%. Galaxy was down ~8%. Strategy fell ~5.4%. (All while the Nasdaq-100 only shed a measly ~0.65%.) If that wasn’t enough, crypto traders lost ~$571M as long positions liquidated over 24 hours - the biggest long wipeout since August 22. BTC and ETH longs lost $190M each, as ~$300M in liquidations hit the market within 20 minutes of the vote. Source: TradingView So what’s next? In yesterday’s vote, Republican Senator Tillis flipped from Yay to a Nay, so he could file a motion to reconsider later and try to bring it back. So the bill’s not dead yet (it’s just ‘sleeping’). The Senate still leaves in early October, and the House is already gone until after the midterms. The only real legislative window is a lame-duck session that needs cloture again , then passage, then the House, then a signature before January 3. If we miss that window, I’m afraid we'll have to bid CLARITY adieu until the new year. Either way - we’re staying focused. Crypto isn’t going anywhere, even if the politicians can’t seem to sort their sh*t out. RAOUL PAL: LIQUIDITY IS RUNNING AT 3%. IT SHOULD BE 11%. Raoul Pal joined us on The Milk Road Show yesterday to talk: Why liquidity growth is stuck near 3% when this point in the cycle usually runs 11%, and what unsticks it. Why the Fed decision matters less than Bessent's bond tour and a weaker dollar. His case for owning the infrastructure layer the machine economy gets built on. PLUS: what "ec

Plus: Memory boost | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 Axios Closer By Nathan Bomey · Sep 16, 2026 Wednesday ✅. Today's newsletter is 771 words, a 3-minute read. 📉 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.5%. 🥶 Today's stock spotlight: J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) fell after the logistics company projected an earnings decline in part due to higher diesel costs. 1 big thing: More to come By Neil Irwin Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images The Fed raised interest rates a quarter point, and hinted that another rate hike is on the way this year. "This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved," Fed chairman Kevin Warsh told reporters this afternoon. "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied," he said. Between the lines: The market was largely expecting today's decision, but the focus turned quickly to what may be coming. Today's committee vote was unanimous, and new projections show a healthy majority of top Fed officials — 12 of 18 — anticipate one more rate hike this year. Another four see two more hikes as likely to be justified. 📉 The impact: Stocks fell while Warsh spoke, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.5%. The Dow lost 631 points, and finished down 1.2%. 2-year Treasury yields, those most sensitive to Fed rates, rose over 7 basis points. Benchmark 10-year yields ticked up to 5.02%. 🗣️ What they're saying: "Risk assets were not enamored with the outcome of today's FOMC. Hopes of limited hikes ahead faded in the face of the Fed's resolve to address inflation," said Andrzej Skiba, U.S. fixed income head at RBC Global Asset Management. The big picture: This was the first policy adjustment of Warsh's chairmanship, and the Fed's first rate hike since 2023. The action could bolster Warsh's credibility as an inflation-fighter, but risks putting him in the crosshairs of President Trump, who has long demanded lower interest rates and pilloried Warsh's predecessor for failing to deliver them. "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!" the president posted today , without mentioning Warsh or the Fed by name. Go deeper 2. Making memories Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios SK Hynix confirmed today that it's weighing plans to boost its "global competitiveness" after a Reuters report that the company is discussing a deal with Intel to make memory chips in the U.S. for the first time. Both stocks rose as investors cheered the possibility of a partnership that could help alleviate the shortage of memory that has triggered price hikes for electronics . Zoom in: "Under one potential scenario, SK Hynix would lease part of Intel's long-planned chipmaking facility in Ohio," Reuters reported, citing sources. "Under another scenario, it could form a venture with Intel and major cloud firms that are keen to lock in memory chip supplies." What they're saying: SK Hynix said it's "exploring various options" but said it had not finalized any plans with Intel. 3. Other happenings Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images ✈️ United Airlines and American Airlines executives said they may need to cut capacity if fuel prices remain elevated. ( Bloomberg ) 🤖 OpenAI has had initial talks with investors for new funding that would value the ChatGPT creator at more than $1.2 trillion. ( WSJ ) 💵 Amazon is raising the minimum wage for its full-time U.S. operations workers by $1 to $20 per hour. ( Reuters ) A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Everything you need to simplify "Simplify," a new book by the co-founders of Axios, is a step-by-step playbook for spending your time on what makes you perform and feel your best. The takeaway: Learn the Confront, Delete, Amplify framework used by the world's most effective leaders to cut complexity and reclaim focus. Grab a copy today. 4. 🎢 Dollywood's $500M overhaul Guests pose for photos at Dollywood in Pigeon Forge, Tenn., in August. Photo: Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images Dollywood is pressing ahead with a long-planned expansion after the death of its namesake , country music superstar Dolly Parton. State of play: The Tennessee theme park — which opened in 1986 near the Smoky Mountains and is co-owned by Herschend Entertainment — is undergoing a $500 million overhaul with new rides and amenities, Bloomberg reports . The 165-acre park currently has an assortment of roller coasters, music stages, World War II-era steam trains and a museum showcasing Parton's life. 🥉 It drew 3.1 million visitors in 2024, making it the third-most popular seasonal theme park in the U.S. 🎸 Among the coming attractions are five new resorts, a new guitar sculpture and a "special reflection area for visitors to share words about how Parton impacted them," reports WVLT/Gray News. What they're saying: Herschend said Parton had signed off on the new features. "We want to honor her by continuing to make Dollywood what she intended it to be," Chris Herschend, chair of the family-owned Herschend Entertainment, told Bloomberg. "Nobody could replace Dolly. She was one of one." A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Ready to simplify? "Simplify: Do 50% more with 50% less" is a toolkit for work in the AI era, from the authors of "Smart Brevity." It's built on a three-step framework: Confront the complexity. Delete what's draining energy. Amplify what works best. Order your copy. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Axios Pro Deals helps you get smarter and faster on the deals, opportunities, and investments that matter most. Get started today . Follow Axios across:

The Fed may have to pull its rate decisions from a hat Byron Gilliam “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” — Alan Greenspan Monetary policy is going asymmetric The stock market was down today because the FOMC “signaled the possibility of further policy tightening,” Bloomberg reported . Or because Chair Warsh “highlighted that the inflation risk wasn’t improving,” CNBC said . Or something else, maybe. We can never know for sure why the market does what it does — because “the market” isn’t even a thing, really. Saying the market went up or down for some identifiable reason is to anthropomorphize an abstract representation of millions of individual decisions, made for a million different reasons. Only some of which we can guess at. Sometimes it’s easy to turn that process into a story, like today. Today’s story — rates up, markets down — is a standard one. But it’s only a story. I know this because I spent about two decades telling them. A large part of a trader’s job at an investment bank is coming up with plausible-sounding explanations for why a stock (or the market) went up or down that day. I was very good at it! Only rarely did I resort to the last-ditch explanation of “more buyers than sellers” (or vice versa). But AI is about to make this a lot harder. Consider that part of the reason the market was down today may have been an expression on Chair Warsh’s face  — because even a look from the Fed chair can move markets. Expressions of concern, stress, or unhappiness seem to have the greatest impact. “We find that investors adversely react to negative expressions revealed during the press conference,” one study found. The researchers used facial recognition software and machine-learning algorithms to determine that, on average, the S&P 500 fell 0.53 basis points in the three minutes after a negative look from the Fed chair. Index volatility rose 3.8 basis points. “Market participants observing Chair's negative facial expressions during the FOMC press conference may associate similar negative feelings with the discussed topic,” the researchers concluded. In other words, if a Fed chair says “inflation” with a sour look on his face, the market will think the situation is worse than they’re saying. Unfortunately, the study did not consider the effect of smiles, winks, or raised eyebrows, because there wasn’t enough of them: “The amount of positive facial expressions in our sample is marginal.” That must make the above photo from today’s meeting an exception that proves the rule — perhaps because Warsh is still new to the job: "As their tenure increases, negative expressions become more frequent, eliciting adverse market reactions," another study found. Sad, really. For central bankers and markets both. Whatever his current mood, Chair Warsh is probably unaware that his face muscles can move markets on their own: “I find that Fed Chairs do not strategically control their expressions,” the author concluded. They should, though, because strategically moving markets is most of what the Fed does. The purpose of monetary policy is to affect the real economy, but the Fed does that indirectly by affecting markets first. The FOMC communicates its policy framework (or “reaction function”), and financial markets use that information to price bonds across the yield curve. Lower bond yields raise employment and higher yields lower inflation (in theory). But this only works if there’s a shared understanding between the Fed and markets. If the Fed doesn’t know why markets are moving, it won’t know how to set monetary policy. If markets don’t understand why the Fed has made a monetary-policy decision, they won’t know how to price bonds. “To get policy right,” Chair Warsh has explained , “we also need to get the relationship right between financial markets and the central bank.” Anything that makes the markets’ reaction harder for the Fed to read weakens that relationship — and, in turn, the Fed’s ability to affect the real economy. In the case of facial expressions, the effect is measured in increments that only an academic economist could discern. But e conomist Markus Brunnermeier warns that there’s much more of this to come: AI, he says, is creating an "asymmetric understanding” between the Fed and markets. Large language models trained on the entire historical record of Fed communications — minutes, speeches, testimony — give AI agents an increasingly sophisticated understanding of what the Fed is likely to do in any given situation. But the Fed has little understanding of what AI agents are likely to do. The decisions they make cannot be fully translated, audited, or understood by even the engineers that developed them, let alone the economists at the Fed. This is a problem! In addition to making it harder for the Fed to do its job, it also makes the Fed easier to manipulate. In normal times, monetary policy is a “common-interest coordination game.” The central bank and financial markets work together to promote economic prosperity and stability. “But it can also turn adversarial,” Brunnermeier explains, “especially when the central bank’s balance sheet is involved.” He cites the canonical example of George Soros attacking the British pound because he could perfectly predict how the Bank of England would first defend and then abandon the exchange rate. Now imagine AI agents doing something similar. Colluding AI agents can engineer vulnerabilities and set hidden traps, Brunnermeier warns, forcing central banks to cave into demands like cutting interest rates or buying bonds to avert a manufactured crisis. Unlike in the Soros example, though, the central bank won’t know why it’s being attacked or by whom. Scary. To make this nightmare scenario less likely, Brunnermeier believes central bankers will have to reverse their decades-long move to greater transparency. “With asymmetric understanding,” the Princeton professor explains, “transparency has to be rethought as pr